This is a new widget I am trying out which shows the current wind direction, speed, and surface temperatures. This also has a slider at the bottom as a future cast out to 36 hours. This should show how the lake effect will move in from Lake Michigan and where it will fall.
We have a winter weather advisory in place for Mason, Lake, Oceana, Newaygo, Muskegon, Ottawa, Kent, Van Buren, and Allegan counties until 1 am Sunday.
Yesterday we had a high of 39° and the low was 32.5°. We had .20 of an inch of snow overnight.
There’s currently a lull in snow this morning, but Lake Effect snow will be reinvigorated this afternoon and evening. Expect snow showers to persist into Sunday morning.
Here is a quick look at the highest wind gusts reported between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning and the freezing rain reports we received from that same event. There were numerous power outages north of Grand Rapids, but the highest concentration of outages was north of Mount Pleasant, where the greatest amount of freezing rain occurred.
7-Day Forecast 42.96°N 85.67°W 12 16
Forecast Discussion
-- Lake Effect Snow to continue unabated into Sunday morning -- Bottom line up front...we have extended the current Winter Weather Advisory counties into Saturday night. Also, we have added Kent and Van Buren to the advisory starting at 100pm today and continuing into Saturday night as well. As for the details of this lake effect event, moisture depth remains very healthy, reaching 10,000 feet much of the time today through Saturday night. 10,000 foot moisture depths are on the higher end of lake effect events. In general, the deep the moisture (cloud) the heavier the lake effect snow can become. There are two distinct time frames where there moisture depth increases toward rare levels (15,000 feet) which include 1) this afternoon and evening and 2) late tonight into Saturday afternoon. These increases in moisture depth are coincident with another significant modulator of lake effect snow intensity, that being lift that is driven by mid level shortwaves. These shortwaves act as the ignition switch to more intense lake effect snow. The shortwave this afternoon is on the lead edge of the upper low and is seen in all models to swing through Lake Michigan. The second boost overnight into Saturday is associated with the actual upper low core moving directly over the lake. Bottom line is that the advisory still looks very good and the addition of Kent and Van Buren Counties is due to the expected expansion in areal extent and coverage. There should be a noticeable kick to the lake effect around midday and again overnight. Suffice it to say the final variable is met as well in the lake effect equation, that being instability. Delta T`s will be more than sufficient around 16 degrees C for much of the event. We still believe that we are looking at totals in the 6-10 inch range in the lakeshore advisory counties. 3 to 6 inch totals will be possible from Kent County north through Lake County. Highest totals will likely be found in portions of Ottawa and Allegan counties given a veering wind from SW to NW through the event. Those two counties will be the pivot point and therefore see the most intense snows. -- Some model disparity still exists in longer ranges -- The models do agree on a cold front moving through the area on Monday night and Tuesday. There will be some light snow associated with the frontal passage itself, followed by some shallow lake effect snow into Tuesday night. Moisture depths with this lake effect by comparison is not impressive only about 5,000 feet deep. Model disparity shows up mid week with the ECMWF showing a 996mb low in the Southern Great Lakes on Thursday whereas the GFS has strong ridging near 1030mb. Quite the difference obviously which leads to a low confidence in details at this range in the forecast. As for the cold air that has been widely advertised, sampling a point near Grand Haven through the forecast (Mon-Thu) the ECMWF has -5C to -8C air at 850mb. This is not all that cold by December standards. In comparison, the GFS has -21C air over Grand Haven Tuesday night. -21C air is certainly notable and would result in icy roads and high temperatures in the teens. We will need to watch trends in this time frame especially as related to the deeper low in the ECWMF.
I can 100% confirm the roads are the worst I’ve ever driven on. Do not drive rn!! It is extremely deceptive
We are getting pounded with snow! This could be an over producer! Get ready to rock!
Roads are surprisingly slippery here… seems like there is a coating of ice. If heading out be careful!
The ECMWF sure shows one heck of a storm system impacting Michigan around Christmas Eve. GFS says an east coast Nor’Easter. Should be interesting to see how the models play out and what they agree more on. Some models are on board with the ECMWF some are with the GFS camp.
NWS Grand Rapids: While tempting to discard them as fantasy, a closer look at ensemble guidance from the ECE and CMC reveals that there are some members that support a depending low impacting the Great Lakes. Notably, while the ECE still favors the East Coast to have a more favorable synoptic setup for a deep low / Nor`easter, there was a jump in membership from the 00z suite to the 12z suite that shows a Great Lakes cyclone developing. These forecast details will be difficult to resolve until we get closer to the event. At this point we can say… Read more »
Good analysis!
Let it snow let it snow let it snow …INDY
Up to one inch already!
Snow showers starting to pick up here with a trace on the ground so far.
Currently we are getting pummeled with snow right on time for the 1 pm WWA!
+1000 INDY
So far the snow falling here in Grand Rapids has not mounted to much at all. At this time just very light snow is falling and there is just a thin covering of snow on the grass and that is it.
Slim
On my way to Minneapolis Minneapolis for the Colts Vikings game tomorrow lots of snow falling in Wisconsin its coming your way!! By the way temp is 23 degrees thats coming also brrrrr! From a snowy highway somewhere in Central Wisconsin INDY
Rock on!
Sure has been a very active week of weather! Bring on the lake effect accumulating SNOW! What a week! Wow, just wow!
We must be up there with the cloudiest places in the world for late fall and early winter… ever since I got back from California last Saturday there have been 99.99% solid grey skies. Also the sun was surprisingly weak in California… it felt like late October Michigan strength
Sure has been a mild and quiet week!
I see a little lake effect snow for the lakeshore areas this weekend. Still waiting on any kind of big synoptic snowfall event for Lower Michigan this winter.
NWS GRR not sounding as convinced about any prolonged bitter snaps. Longer-term models are all over the place.
Michael, I like the new, more comprehensive layout!
I would say that, short of a nuclear bomb falling on Allegan county next week, we will be having a white Christmas this year 🙂 Of course that is just my layman’s prediction…
Wow, what a week! Winter is back, bring on the snow and a white Christmas for GR is a virtually certainty! Who knew? Incredible pattern change!
Other than the wind two nights ago, this week has been absolutely quiet here. Still hoping for a white Christmas, though. We haven’t had one in five years and since then, two Christmases were in the 50s – including last year.
We have seen freezing rain, a wind advisory, power outages, rain, snow and now a WWA! This has been an incredibly active week of weather and the best is yet to come! Bring in the accumulating snow!!
You will see a white Christmas this year! Mark it down and take it to the bank! Get ready for some system snow by the end of next week! Incredible!
👍
It has remained very quiet, indeed.
Good morning! Well, yes there is a light coating of 0.2” of snow on the ground here this morning. As for yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 40/32. There was a reported 0.44” of precipitation of that 0.5” was reported as snow fall There was a reported 1% of possible sunshine as the sun did indeed come out for a couple of minutes. As reported I have 0.2” of snow on the ground here, the road and driveway are just wet. The current temperature here in MBY is 32. For today the average H/L is 36/25 the record… Read more »
Obviously, this is about change but as it stands right now, Lansing (1.5″) has had more snow for the month than GR (1.3″). I was surprised to read that.