We have a very summer-like 67° at 7:00 this morning. Yesterday’s high was 76° with a low of 53° and we only had a trace of rain. We are reasonably assured of rainfall today some areas may see a downpour with thunder and lightning. This is the NWS guess for rainfall today.
Showers and a few t-storms will become more numerous tonight, with occasional rain through Monday AM. By Monday, many areas will receive 0.50 to 1.50” of rain, with isolated amounts of 3.00”+. Some urban flooding may occur in poor-drainage areas.
Below is the September summary for Michigan. Lansing was the wet spot for the month and of course, our temps were 2 to 4 degrees above normal across the board. Allegan county being mostly rural with no large cities isn’t shown here, we were around an inch below normal for the month.
Forecast Discussion
- Locally Heavy Rain Today -
Rain showers look to continue today as a slow moving surface low
tracks through the region. Model soundings continue to show some
mid-level instability, so a few weaker storms are not out of
question with this precipitation.
The main concern with this precipitation will be the chance for
locally heavy rainfall across the southern half of the state,
specifically from about the I-96/I-69 corridor southwards. In this
area, a strengthening axis of deformation in the vicinity of our
developing low pressure system will support several rounds of heavy
rain. On top of that, showers are likely to be slow moving further
adding to the risk of locally heavy rain. Model guidance continues
to suggest narrow swaths of rainfall up to 2-3 inches, perhaps
even up to 4 inches in some spots. Our 7-day rainfall has been
light allowing for soil moisture to recover nicely, but high
precipitable water, slow moving showers, and some convective
instability suggests we could see a small threat for localized
urban flooding in some areas.
- Rain Returns Late in the Week -
As the surface low moves east, northerly flow will bring drying
Tuesday and Wednesday. Fair weather can be expected as high pressure
slides to the north of a closed upper-level low over the
southeastern part of the country forming a Rex Block.
This blocking pattern will not last long as a Pacific system
sweeps up the closed low and surges moisture back up north into
the Midwest. Periodic showers can be expected Wednesday night
through Friday.
I just checked the rain gauge and we are up to a whopping 2.1 inches! IncredibLe!
Heavy rain early this morning totaled 3/4 of an inch. We’ll take it.
Sounds good.
Really mild first half of October. It will be interesting to see if a pattern change occurs later this month or if the warmth will continue towards Halloween (I have my doubts).
We have a 70% or better chance of above-normal temps through mid-month, all the cooler air is contained out west. Knowing Michigan climate things can change with shock and awe pattern shifts bringing us to wish for warmer temps…
Look for a major pattern change in November and then watch out!
Look at all that rain! Maybe Andy will be golfing today? I love it, but later this Fall when this rain turns to SNOW we all be rocking!
Getting some incredibly heavy rain this morning as well as some intense, close by lightning strikes. Overnight low was about where our daytime high should be, feels more like July out.
I am going to go for a walk before the rains set in. I will be at the funeral home later today and tonight. I would like to add that is has became very foggy here in just a short time. Visibility is now down to around a 1/4 mile or less.
Slim
It was a very warm early October day here in the Bay City area yesterday. The official high at Saginaw reached 79. I went for a walk yesterday and there is some good but spotty color on the trees. The maples have some good red and the ash and cottonwood have some good yellow. There are some trees that have dropped a good amount of their leaves. It has been cloudy and warm overnight the overnight low at Saginaw was 65 and if that holds until midnight it would be the 2nd warmest low for any October 3rd here. The… Read more »