One thing is for certain this cold with occasional snow isn’t going away soon. Being a positive person and forward thinker I know spring isn’t too far away but the part of me who lives in today enjoys the day for what it is worth. One can easily add more layers for warmth unlike the summer when one can only strip down so far and still maintain a level of modesty especially for us old folk who would not want to present our wrinkled shells to the grandchildren.
We still haven’t reached the elusive 0° this winter in our area (SW Michigan). We have chances of that happening early next week in the overnight hours especially inland from the lake when the coldest air of the season moves in. Below are the guesses for snowfall totals through Sunday morning.
Forecast Discussion
-- Occasional snow today and through the weekend -- By my count we`ll go through five phases of snow production over the next three days, alternating between mid/upper level waves or jet support, and an ebb and flow of lake effect. Presently we have light accumulating snow affecting areas along and north of I-96. Ironically the stronger radar reflectivity to the south has been mostly virga. Can`t rule out the lower levels moistening up enough to allow some snow to impact the morning commute down to I-94. As we have been in a cold and snowy pattern for a week, the slower morning commute from generic snow doesn`t seem out of the ordinary enough to warrant an advisory. This afternoon will be tricky for areas near Lake Michigan as a surface convergence zone with moderate/heavy lake effect snow moves onshore during the afternoon. Mesoscale models depict a locally modified thermodynamic environment in that convergence zone with adequate lapse rates and moisture to support convection through the DGZ. The convective layer appears it will have 10 knots or less of vertical environmental shear as it crosses US-31. So as this band of snow moves inland, it`s reasonable to expect a burst of moderate or heavy snow with a high snow-to-liquid ratio, which could create some concerns for travel as conditions could change quickly. It`s uncertain how far inland this convergence zone will move and how long it can produce heavy snow once its source of moisture and heat (Lake Michigan) is removed, but some snow could reach US-131 by evening. Late tonight into much of Saturday, the next shortwave with mid- level moisture and support for snow will move through. Notably with this event, the saturated semi-isothermal layer is quite thick (over 10,000 feet deep) and almost entirely within the DGZ. Only thing preventing this from being a prolific snow producer is paltry upward vertical velocities (omega). Still, with what little QPF is expected, snow-to-liquid ratios may be quite high and result in decent accumulation amounts of 1 to 3 inches by Saturday evening. Rinse and repeat some lake effect for Saturday night and another round of weak upper level support for light snow Sunday night, though confidence in the details of the setup is becoming too low to focus on specifics at this time. -- Cold Monday with chance of more snow accumulation Tuesday -- While the coldest of the Arctic air will be confined to the Plains, we`ll catch a glancing blow of some of it on Monday. Daytime high temperatures may barely eclipse 10 degrees, for what could be our coldest day of the season. Monday night into Tuesday is our next chance of more substantial accumulations (2-4 or 3-6 inches perhaps) from a low lifting out of the Gulf. Still enough spread in the ensembles to give us some pause from saying this is a sure thing, as the track of the low could miss us to the east.
Looking good!
Fake news…..
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/b4ea0280869baa46799dc75eacef8904785ec43ad2f6fb098355fbc208a55e2c
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/rockford/49341/daily-weather-forecast/2211654
Lol, what a joke!
It has been a long stretch of great winter conditions. I have been skiing and snowshoeing for weeks on end and many more weeks to go! I love back loaded winters!
Covid super spreader!
Lol, your ignorance is off the charts!!
Well, well, well Mookie, look what we have here!!! Only another week of this trash weather, then coasting into SPRING!! BRING IT!!
I LOVE 2 WEEK WINTERS!!
That’s what we’ve been saying! This short winter is on the way out!
Lol, what a joke!
The cold and snow just keeps coming! Rock n roll!!!
I love back loaded winters! The perfect skiing conditions just keep coming week after week!
https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2021021206&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384
Facts! Mookie and the NWS all week kept spewing there would be no accumulating snow this week through the weekend! Indy and I kept saying it would be cold and snowy especially near the end of the week! Indy and I are spot on 100% correct again! Picked up 1 to 2 inches of snow last night and another 2 to 4 inches will be coming tonight and Saturday! Who would have thought? The great winter keeps rocking! Back loaded baby!
1000% again!! INDY
I believe what NWS said was no significant accumulating snow through the weekend.
We reached one degree this week, but have yet to hit zero, as well. A week ago, the forecast for this week said lows each night would be zero or even below zero. Thank you Lake Michigan and the cloudy nights. Getting a few flurries now, but we had no snow overnight. I am eagerly awaiting for it to warm back up a bit. Both vehicles are filthy and covered in salt.
Here just NW of Grand Rapids 1″ of new snow fell overnight. That keeps my snow cover at 10″ At the current time there is light snow falling with a temperature of 15. Grand Rapids has now had 5 nights in a row with lows below 10 that is the longest since January 2019. After 11 days February 2021 mean temperature is 18.5° that is a departure of -6.6.
Slim
Over 2 inches of new snow last night and it’s still snowing plus the another cold one back loaded Winter 2021 fun keeps rolling and rolling …Shuuuu!! INDY