We are heading toward at least a strong El Nino and maybe even a very strong El Nino. What will this mean for our upcoming winter season? Here is a video on what we could expect from a strong El Nino.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbLxRfNF-jE
In the video you can see that in most of the past strong El Nino’s winters have had less than average snow fall and are rather mild as winters go. That said we have just came out of a 3 years in a row of La Nina conditions going back to 1950 this is the 1st time that has happened. Right now, the current Southern Oscillation value is +1.1. Going back to 1950 there have been only 4 times when the value was higher than that 1.1 in this time. That was in 2015 1.5, 1997 1.6, and 1957 1.3. But what is more interesting is that this year we are going from a weak La Nina to a strong El Nino. In the past there have been two times when that happened, the weak La Nino of 1964/65 to the strong El Nino of 1965/66. The weak La Nina of 1971/72 to the strong El Nino of 1972/73 and get this both of those events the Southern Oscillation value was +1.1 in both of them at this very same time. The peak value in 1973 reached 2.1. and the peak value in 1966 reached 2.0.
So how were the winter seasons here in West Michigan in the winters of 1965/66 and 1972/73? The winter season of 1965/66 in Grand Rapids. December had a mean of 33.5, January had a mean of 19.1 and February had a mean of 25.4. The mean for that met winter was 26, the current met winter mean at GR is 27.3. The snow fall for the winter of 1965/66 was December 9.6” January 25.9” and February 15.9” for a total of 51.4 the current met winter average at GR is 60.6” As for the total winter snow fall that winter at Grand Rapids there was 67.0”
For the winter season of 1972/73 The mean at Grand Rapids for December was 26.5° January 27.3 and February 22.8. For the met winter season the mean was 25.5° and for snow fall there was 19.8 in December, 7.0 in January and 13.2 in February. For a met winter total of 40.0 well below the met winter total. For the winter season the total was 65.5” in a winter season that ran form November with 11.0” all the way to April that had 5.0” even May of 1973 had a 0.01” of snow fall. So while this upcoming winter looks to be warmer than average and have less snow fall there should none the less be some cold and snow. Note that both 1965 and 1972 had rather cold weather in the fall season. So a cold fall can certainly happen in a strong El Nino season. At the current time it looks like September will end up just a little above average.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was a summer like 82/58. Officially there was no rain fall but here in MBY I had a short but heavy shower with the sun out. The shower popped up right over head and dropped 0.05” of rain fall. At the airport there were 5 CDD’s yesterday and the highest wind speed was 19 MPH out of the S. The sun was out 76% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is now down to 71/50 the record high of 96 was set in the heat wave of 2017. The record low was a frosty 28 set in 1974. The record rain fall amount is 2.13” in 2000. Last year the H/L was 64/38.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
318 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2023
LATEST UPDATE…
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2023
VERY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED. DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND. SCATTERED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MANAGED TO POP YESTERDAY, THAT
WON’T BE THE CASE TODAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE DECLINING INTO
THE UPPER 40S FOR MANY AREAS. THE MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
MOVE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 70S, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE REGION GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2023
A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SHAPING UP FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WHICH ESSENTIALLY ENCOMPASSES THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF. THE UPPER LOW IN THE SHORT TERM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE LONG TERM WITH
VARYING SPEEDS. THIS LOW IS MOVING INTO AND THROUGH A MEAN RIDGE
POSITION THAT STRETCHES FROM THE MEXICAN SUBTROPICS INCLUDING THE
BAJA OF CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA. THE PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST AND GRADUALLY FILLS WITH
TIME AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. THE GFS IS QUICKER MOVING THE WAVE
INTO THE RIDGE WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING A BIT. THE ECWMF LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN.
AS FOR LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE, AT THE SURFACE AND ESPECIALLY AT
850MB THERE IS A WARM FRONT SITUATED IN THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION ON MANY OF THE
DAYS IN THE LONG TERM. WE FEEL THE GFS IS A BIT TOO QUICK BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT). THE ECWMF HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF MORE INTO
TUESDAY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHEN WE SEE PRECIPITATION
GIVEN THE MODEL DISPARITY AND OVERALL WEAK FEATURES AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. 70S FOR HIGHS LOOK PRETTY COMMON NEXT WEEK WHICH
IS ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids
Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. East wind 6 to 13 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 51. East wind 8 to 10 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. East wind 8 to 11 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. East wind 7 to 10 mph.
Monday
A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. East wind 8 to 11 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Tuesday
A 30 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 68.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 71.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
Detailed Forecast For Lansing
Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. East wind 5 to 11 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 50. East wind 7 to 9 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. East wind 6 to 9 mph.
Monday
A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 69. East wind 7 to 10 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Tuesday
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Wednesday
A chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 70.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
All El nino’s are not created equal – this years El Niño = tons of snow and cold! Rock n roll baby!!
Winter forecast?…cold, windchill, snow, ice, etc. Routine…samething every year.
Bring it on!!!!