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July 4th Forecast – The Michigan Weather Center
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July 4th Forecast

Happy 4th of July.  My animals hate this day and have all their hiding places mapped out to try to escape the big booms and explosions after the sun sets.  My neighbor puts on a pretty good show.

First Half of 2024 Stats

For West/Mid Michigan, the first half of 2024 has been one of the warmest in 125+ years of records (up there with 2012). Each month from January to June has balanced out to be warmer than average. There were days or weeks when it got cold, but the warmth has outweighed the cold. Some highlights from this year so far: – The snowiest January since 2014 at Grand Rapids and Lansing (big snows can still happen on the days it gets cold enough!) – The warmest February on record. – The warmest day ever recorded during December, January, or February (February 27, 2024). – The warmest winter on record (Dec+Jan+Feb) – A top 5 warmest spring on record (Mar+Apr+May)

NWS Forecast

Independence Day
A 20 percent chance of showers after 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
There is a slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 66. Light and variable wind. The chance of precipitation is 20%.
There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8 am and 2 pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 6 to 13 mph becoming west-southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%—new rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11 pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11 pm and 2 am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 62. West wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. The chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 am, then a slight chance of showers between 8 am and 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. West northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. The chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.
A chance of showers after 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 64.
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

Weather History

1911: The phrase Hot as the Fourth of July gains new meaning as temperatures soar to near 100 degrees, for Michigan’s hottest Independence Day on record.

1969: Nature’s fireworks turn violent as severe thunderstorms form in the evening and drop several tornadoes across Lower Michigan. More than 60 people were injured, most of them from a tornado that hit Flat Rock in southern Wayne County. This tornado destroyed a tile factory, carrying sheet metal over a mile. Another tornado injured eleven people about four miles east of Jackson as it damaged a dozen mobile homes.

1974: Tornadoes strike Lower Michigan during the early afternoon. One person is injured as a tornado damages several houses between Charlotte and Potterville in Eaton County. Tornadoes also damage barns and outbuildings in Huron and Tuscola Counties.

1977: A widespread severe weather outbreak hit Lower Michigan with tornadoes and downbursts. Two people were injured and almost a million dollars in damage was done. A tornado injured one person and destroyed two mobile homes and one barn near Maple Ridge in Arenac County. Another person was injured by a tornado at Otisville in Genesee County as four mobile homes were destroyed there. Two homes and a camper unit were heavily damaged as a tornado moved from southern Isabella County into northern Montcalm County, ending northeast of Vestaburg.

2003: The July 4th holiday turns tragic as seven people drown in rip currents on the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. A line of thunderstorms earlier in the day had produced strong winds across the middle of the lake, and the dangerous currents formed several hours later.

On July 4, 2012, the temperature rose to 102 degrees in Detroit, a record for the day and its hottest temperature in nearly a quarter of a century. The temperature in Flint also reached the century mark.

Also on July 4, 1977, the “Independence Day Derecho of 1977” left a path of destruction from Minnesota to Ohio. Winds of up to 115 mph destroyed property and leveled forests over Wisconsin. By the time the derecho had reached southeast Michigan, winds had weakened to 60 to 70 mph. The storm did, however, spawn F1 tornados in Genessee, Lapeer, and Monroe counties.

Also on July 4, 1957, the strongest tornado since 1950 in Livingston County occurred at 6:55 PM. This tornado was categorized as an F4 and caused 4 injuries and up to $500,000 in damage. Also on this day in 1957, another F4 tornado swept through Oakland County, injuring two people.

Forecast Discussion

- Warm Independence Day With Slight Chance of a Shower

Temperatures are expected warm up into the mid 80s today with light
winds. The cloud cover forecast for late morning through afternoon
has become a little more pessimistic, as there may be several hours
when it is mostly cloudy. Also feel compelled to broadbrush a slight
chance of showers everywhere south of Whitehall to Mount Pleasant
for the afternoon and evening.

A midlevel shortwave trough, augmented by overnight storms in
Kansas, is likely to spread cirrus and altostratus over Lower
Michigan during the late morning and afternoon. This cloud deck will
likely contain ice and may precipitate as virga or sprinkles, but
would also serve as ice nuclei feeders to the diurnal cumulus that
might develop underneath. Whether the models are overdeveloping
cumulus underneath the midlevel clouds remains to be seen, but zones
of surface convergence may be a focus for some development, and also
reasonably steep lapse rates suggested in the models above the LCL
up to the altostratus cloud deck would allow cumulus to attain
decent depth.

The number of convection-allowing models among the 00Z suite
producing scattered light rain showers between afternoon and dusk,
perhaps even an isolated downpour, seemed too great to ignore. On
the plus side, the chance of lightning does appear to be rather
small given the CAPE and better updraft strength would be in the
lower/warmer part of the cloud. You shouldn`t be rained out of your
holiday outdoor activities unless you are really unlucky.

- Scattered Thunderstorms Friday, Low Confidence of Severe Potential

A round or two of scattered showers/storms is likely between Friday
morning and afternoon, but uncertainty in the evolution of the
responsible low-pressure system makes it difficult to ascertain if
there is much threat of severe weather.

A broad synoptic-scale trough over the northern Plains today should
deepen a little as it progresses east, closing into a 500 mb low
over Minnesota tonight. By 8 AM Friday, a surface to 850 mb low
should be located somewhere over Wisconsin with a quasi-stationary
or warm front extending east across Lower Michigan. Models differ
greatly in the position and strength of the surface low Friday
morning, and the strength of the pressure field near the frontal
triple point over Lower Michigan by mid day. The surface to 850 mb
wind fields around this low also vary greatly among each model,
resulting in substantial differences in vertical shear
profiles/hodographs, some of which would support severe weather,
including a tornado, and some of which would not. This will have to
be monitored closely, though, given the reasonable magnitude of 0-6
km bulk shear, 0-3 km CAPE, and total MLCAPE advertised by most

- Showers Possible Saturday, Unsettled Pattern Continues Next Week

As we enter this holiday weekend there remains quite a bit of
uncertainty headed in the mid to long range pattern. The upper
level jet stream should remain over the region Saturday through
Sunday. This should provide enough dynamics that, coupled with
mid to lowlevel moisture and with the instability brought by a
positively tilted trough, should allow for a chance of showers
Saturday. Any showers should be scattered and light QPF associated
given lack of deep moisture.

  The operational models and ensembles diverge on a signal into
early next week, however there remains chances for showers and
storms especially Monday into Tuesday. There remains a low
confidence in timing. Max Temperatures look to remain below normal
through the upcoming week. This should make the week quite
comfortable, depending on humidity this week.
newest oldest
Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

I hope everyone is having a Happy 4th of July! The weather is great. It’s hard to believe it is already the 4th. Summer is flying by fast. We had a picnic here and played some lawn games and everyone had a great time.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Interesting stats above for the first half of the year, a lot more red than blue. There were a lot of +20 degree days, even a +30 day, and maybe one -20 day.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Agreed. Certainly much more red than blue.

Andy W
Andy W

Yep, according to the cold weather crazies you would think we had arctic sub freezing temps through June! But hey facts and statistics don’t care about your feelings and the facts and statistics don’t lie!! It has been a beautiful WARM year since January!

Andy W
Andy W

Happy Independence Day everyone!!! Hopefully you have a great one!! It’s been a great week with lots of wins! What a great time to be alive!!! WOW!!!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Happy Independence Day, friends! I hope you all have a great holiday.


We are going to take a road trip starting tomorrow. I have tickets to see the Tigers play in Cincinnati on Saturday and then we are going to see a niece I have not seen in several years in London, Kentucky.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Have fun! I’ve driven through Cincy but never spent any time there. The downtown area with the ballpark looks really cool. Enjoy!


Family in Cincy… I remember parking on tht riverfront and it was slanted. Lol. I always knew we were close because.of Skyline Chili.

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Have a great trip!!


Happy 4th The official H/L yesterday at GR was 81/68 there was 0.15” of rainfall the higher wind was 24 MPH out of the SW. The sun was out 50% of the time. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 100 was set in 1897 and 1911, 2012 came just short with a high of 99. The coldest high of 64 was set in 1970. The record low of 45 was set in 1972 the warmest low of 78 was set in 2012. The most rainfall of 1.74” was in 1903. Last year the H// was… Read more »


The overnight low here in MBY was 65 and that is the current reading with clear skies.