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Mainly Fair Weather

Hi, I am filling in for Slim today as his journies take him to Kentucky.

Once again we had a trace of rain yesterday and we have had a mainly dry week this week.   Yesterday we had a high temperature of 82° and the low was 61°.  Low clouds will continue to drape the region through mid-morning once these lift expect a mix of sun and clouds with isolated showers and storms this afternoon, especially north of I-96.  The risk of rain is only 20%.


NWS Forecast

Today
A 20 percent chance of showers after 8 am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 78. West wind 6 to 10 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. West wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
There is a slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Light and variable wind. The chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind 3 to 8 mph.
Monday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 66.
Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 62.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 83.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 62.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 86.

Weather History

1983: Cool high pressure settles over Lower Michigan and temperatures fall to record lows. The 41 degrees at Grand Rapids is the lowest ever recorded during the month of July for Furniture City.

2014: Severe thunderstorms roll through on the night of July 6-7th. At least four tornadoes struck from near Grand Rapids to Saint Johns. A tornado with top winds estimated at 110 mph did heavy damage in the Grand Rapids suburb of Kentwood.

On July 6, 2003, spotters reported a 65mph wind gust at Birch Run at 9:50 pm.


Forecast Discussion

- Isolated Showers and Storms Today

Fairly tranquil weather expected over the weekend as upper
troughing prevails, but model soundings show a drying trend
through Sunday. There will be enough moisture and diurnally
driven instability to pop some showers and isolated thunderstorms
today with the greatest coverage this afternoon across interior
zones. With westerly low level flow we expect a lake shadow and
little or no showers across the western zones.

Shower activity diminishes and ends Saturday evening with the loss
of insolation. Model soundings are drying out and surface ridging
builds in on Sunday, so we will continue the dry forecast.

- Another round of showers/storms possible early next week

Another deep trough will swing into the region late Sunday night
through Monday. Latest mid range models are in good agreement on
the position and track of this positively tilted upper level
trough. Copious amounts of mid level moisture will accompany this
trough and coupled with good 500 mb vorticity there should be
enough instability for showers and storms in the Tuesday
timeframe.

The biggest question is how much gulf moisture will
this system tap into. Given the latest ensembles, while there is
anomalous moisture moving through the region by mid week, the best
moisture will be just east of the region. However there are some
outliers that open the possibility for heavier rainfall.
newest oldest
Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Can’t complain about the weather. We got about a 1/2” of rain late afternoon yesterday – just enough to keep everything lush and green.

*SS*
*SS*

I was just coming to post what a beautiful day.
Getting some mowing and other stuff down outside! Happy Saturday