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Warm & Humid – Beryl Update – The Michigan Weather Center
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Warm & Humid – Beryl Update

We had .01 of an inch of rain overnight from drizzle with a low temperature of 65°.  Yesterday’s high was 84° and the low was 56°.  We expect cloudy skies with scattered showers today. This afternoon will bring a chance for storms as a more tropical airmass settles in. This week Michigan will see periods of showers and storms from tropical moisture with a warm-up toward the end of the week.

Updated Path of Beryl

WPC Day Three Excessive Rainfall Forecast

NWS Forecast

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. The chance of precipitation is 50%.
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 67. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming west at 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers after 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 64. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Showers are likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 2 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. North northeast wind 3 to 7 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 62.
A 30 percent chance of showers after 2 pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Thursday Night
There is a chance of showers before 8 pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 61.
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 64.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 68.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.

Weather History

1885: A tornado damages several farms in and near Allegan, Michigan.

1936: The greatest heat wave on record gets underway across Michigan. Grand Rapids will see high temperatures at or above 100 degrees on six of the next seven days, including an all-time record high of 108 degrees on the 13th. Lansing will peak at 101 degrees on the 14th.

1951: Severe thunderstorms strike West Michigan with dozens of trees knocked down. Some of the trees block roads and damage cars and buildings

1984: Record low temperatures are set as cool air from Canada dominates the Great Lakes region. Grand Rapids falls to 46 degrees and Muskegon to 45.

On July 8, 1936, the second-highest all-time temperature was recorded in Detroit. The mercury rose to 104.4 degrees! This was the beginning of a string of seven days in a row (July 8-14) of record daily high temperatures, which were all above 100 degrees!

Forecast Discussion

 Occasional Showers and Storms Through Tuesday

Regional water vapor imagery shows a weak vorticity maxima across
Wisconsin that will slide into lower Michigan over the next few
hours. Combined with upper-level divergence showers will develop
across the northwest CWA near daybreak. An isolated rumble of
thunder is possible but confidence is low.

More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances arrive this
afternoon into the evening as a shortwave ahead of a parent trough
initiates convection off of a lake breeze convergence zone draped
across the CWA. We remain in the D1 general thunder as while MLCAPES
exceeding 750 J/kg are expected with MUCAPEs exceeding 1000 J/kg,
deep layer shear is marginal at 25-35 knots. Model soundings also
show modest mid-level lapse rates which means updrafts will struggle
somewhat as they develop. Cannot rule out isolated strong storms
(wind/hail risk) but that would be the exception and not the norm.
Showers and storms then subside overnight.

Latest trends Tuesday suggest that a front crossing into the area
stalls as the mid-level wave driving it shears out, as well as the
front undergoing frontolysis. Scattered showers and storms are
possible, mainly across the southeastern CWA where the dying front
stalls, however much of the area will be dry. While instability is
present, shear under 30 knots aided by near moist adiabatic mid-
level lapse rates will keep the occasional embedded thunderstorm non-
severe (if any convection can develop at all). Approaching 00z
Tuesday, the deformation rain bands associated with the remnants of
Beryl begin to approach the I94 corridor.

- Rain showers, some heavy, possible Tuesday night into Thursday

The models continue to hone in on the track and course of Beryl.  As
Beryl becomes extra tropical and moves to the northeast, there
continues to be run to run variability in both the ensembles and in
the operational models on the track. The NHC cone overall covers
most, if not all, of these potential outcomes. The biggest driver
for Beryl will be two fold. First the 300mb jet stream will move
through the midwest with a 100 kt jet moving over Michigan by
Wednesday night. Stepping down to 500 mb the remains of Beryl
becomes engulfed in the trough and should ride up into a weak
negatively tilted ridge. The biggest question is where the core of
the low goes from there. Ensembles and latest models continue to
waffle between various courses. However, even given the differences
between the runs, the overall course brings persistent tropical
moisture and showers through southern Michigan Tuesday night through
Wednesday and into Thursday. WPC has the region in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall and half one to two and a half inches over time
frame. So while some potential changes lurk on the horizon, a wet
period is ahead through mid week.

- Unsettled, warm weather continues into next weekend.

No major changes through the latter half of the week with slightly
warmer than normal Max temperatures ahead with periods of showers
and storms possible as a zonal flow will bring successive troughs
through the region. This should allow for potential for afternoon
convection through the latter half of the week and into next
newest oldest
Jesse (Montcalm)
Jesse (Montcalm)

I am getting some localized downpours! Michigan summers really are nice, especially when things are green and growing.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Good to hear you are getting some rain!