We had .01 of an inch of rain overnight from drizzle with a low temperature of 65°. Yesterday’s high was 84° and the low was 56°. We expect cloudy skies with scattered showers today. This afternoon will bring a chance for storms as a more tropical airmass settles in. This week Michigan will see periods of showers and storms from tropical moisture with a warm-up toward the end of the week.
Updated Path of Beryl
WPC Day Three Excessive Rainfall Forecast
NWS Forecast
Weather History
1885: A tornado damages several farms in and near Allegan, Michigan.
1936: The greatest heat wave on record gets underway across Michigan. Grand Rapids will see high temperatures at or above 100 degrees on six of the next seven days, including an all-time record high of 108 degrees on the 13th. Lansing will peak at 101 degrees on the 14th.
1951: Severe thunderstorms strike West Michigan with dozens of trees knocked down. Some of the trees block roads and damage cars and buildings
1984: Record low temperatures are set as cool air from Canada dominates the Great Lakes region. Grand Rapids falls to 46 degrees and Muskegon to 45.
On July 8, 1936, the second-highest all-time temperature was recorded in Detroit. The mercury rose to 104.4 degrees! This was the beginning of a string of seven days in a row (July 8-14) of record daily high temperatures, which were all above 100 degrees!
Forecast Discussion
Occasional Showers and Storms Through Tuesday Regional water vapor imagery shows a weak vorticity maxima across Wisconsin that will slide into lower Michigan over the next few hours. Combined with upper-level divergence showers will develop across the northwest CWA near daybreak. An isolated rumble of thunder is possible but confidence is low. More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances arrive this afternoon into the evening as a shortwave ahead of a parent trough initiates convection off of a lake breeze convergence zone draped across the CWA. We remain in the D1 general thunder as while MLCAPES exceeding 750 J/kg are expected with MUCAPEs exceeding 1000 J/kg, deep layer shear is marginal at 25-35 knots. Model soundings also show modest mid-level lapse rates which means updrafts will struggle somewhat as they develop. Cannot rule out isolated strong storms (wind/hail risk) but that would be the exception and not the norm. Showers and storms then subside overnight. Latest trends Tuesday suggest that a front crossing into the area stalls as the mid-level wave driving it shears out, as well as the front undergoing frontolysis. Scattered showers and storms are possible, mainly across the southeastern CWA where the dying front stalls, however much of the area will be dry. While instability is present, shear under 30 knots aided by near moist adiabatic mid- level lapse rates will keep the occasional embedded thunderstorm non- severe (if any convection can develop at all). Approaching 00z Tuesday, the deformation rain bands associated with the remnants of Beryl begin to approach the I94 corridor. - Rain showers, some heavy, possible Tuesday night into Thursday The models continue to hone in on the track and course of Beryl. As Beryl becomes extra tropical and moves to the northeast, there continues to be run to run variability in both the ensembles and in the operational models on the track. The NHC cone overall covers most, if not all, of these potential outcomes. The biggest driver for Beryl will be two fold. First the 300mb jet stream will move through the midwest with a 100 kt jet moving over Michigan by Wednesday night. Stepping down to 500 mb the remains of Beryl becomes engulfed in the trough and should ride up into a weak negatively tilted ridge. The biggest question is where the core of the low goes from there. Ensembles and latest models continue to waffle between various courses. However, even given the differences between the runs, the overall course brings persistent tropical moisture and showers through southern Michigan Tuesday night through Wednesday and into Thursday. WPC has the region in a slight risk for excessive rainfall and half one to two and a half inches over time frame. So while some potential changes lurk on the horizon, a wet period is ahead through mid week. - Unsettled, warm weather continues into next weekend. No major changes through the latter half of the week with slightly warmer than normal Max temperatures ahead with periods of showers and storms possible as a zonal flow will bring successive troughs through the region. This should allow for potential for afternoon convection through the latter half of the week and into next weekend.
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for… Eastern Allegan County in southwestern Michigan… * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 406 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of Allegan, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE…Radar indicated. IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include… Allegan… Otsego… Martin… Hopkins… Shelbyville… Bradley…
…A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Van Buren County through 430 PM EDT… At 328 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Hartford, or 13 miles west of Paw Paw, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD…Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail. SOURCE…Radar indicated. IMPACT…Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include… Paw Paw… Hartford… Mattawan… Lawton… Bangor… Decatur… Pine Grove… Keeler… Lawrence… Gobles… Bloomingdale… Breedsville… Glendale… Kendall…
I am getting some localized downpours! Michigan summers really are nice, especially when things are green and growing.
Good to hear you are getting some rain!