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Pleasant Weather Continues

We have some patchy fog this morning which will dissipate and the sun will bring forth another pleasant day.  Yesterday’s high/low was 75/60.

Rain chances will increase as we move through the first half of the week as the Gulf conveyor belt starts to bring more moisture into the state.  The remnants of Beryl will bring us our best chances of rain midweek.


NWS Forecast

Today
Sunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Monday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. West southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Monday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 66. West-southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers after 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Wednesday
A chance of showers before 8 am, then showers likely, and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of showers after 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. The chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Night
There is a chance of showers before 8 pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 81.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 63.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 86.

Weather History

1991: Tornadoes strike across southern Lower Michigan. A tornado damaged about 20 homes near Highland in Oakland County. More damage occurred near Okemos in Ingham County and a home and some outbuildings were damaged as a tornado moved northeast of Rockford in Kent County. A tornado also briefly touched down northwest of Plainwell in Allegan County but did no damage.

1988: Lower Michigan is in the midst of another heat wave as the hot and dry summer of 1988 continues. Temperatures peak at 100 degrees on the 6th at Lansing and Grand Rapids, followed by a record high of 98 degrees on the 7th at Grand Rapids.

On July 7, 2021, a cluster of severe storms moved across the Metro Detroit region with numerous reports of damage to trees and power lines across Oakland and Macomb Counties. Heavy rainfall accompanied these storms with some locations receiving over an inch of rain in about 30 minutes.

On July 7, 2012, the temperature reached 100 degrees in Detroit for the second time in four days. This was the first time that Detroit had reached 100 twice in one year since 1988.

Also on July 7, 2010, the hottest day during a five-day heat wave from July 4th-July 8th occurred. High temperatures climbed into the lower 90s across most areas, producing heat indices in the mid-90s to around 100 degrees. Little relief occurred during the overnight hours as lows hovered at or above 70 degrees. Two heat-related fatalities were reported.

Also on July 7, 1991, A powerful derecho surged rapidly east across Southeast Lower Michigan during the early evening hours and brought widespread wind damage and power outages. Wind gusts of 75 to 85 mph were common in the Ann Arbor, Detroit, and Pontiac areas.


Forecast Discussion

- Dry Sunday With Patchy Fog This Morning

Nighttime microphysics imagery shows areas of fog and stratus have
developed mainly north of I96 with other pockets on the Lake
Michigan shoreline. Additional development will be focused on the
region north of I96 and near/west of US131. Isolated pockets of
dense fog cannot be ruled out. This fog will dissipate by mid-
morning as solar heating ramps up.

Dry weather is expected today as surface and mid-level ridging slide
across the area. Expect beautiful weather in the form of partly to
mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 80s.

- Shower/Storm Chances Return Sunday Night

Low to moderate (20-40 percent) PoPs return to the forecast Sunday
night as warm air advection triggers the chance for showers mainly
north of a Holland to Mount Pleasant line. With HREF MUCAPE < 500
J/kg, thunder coverage will be isolated at worst. Highest PoPs will
be up near Ludington where low-level isentropic ascent is best.

Troughing slowly advances into the upper Great Lakes Monday, with
weak impulses ahead of this trough, combined with diurnal
enhancement from warm July sunshine, reinvigorating a chance (20-40
percent) of showers and storms Monday. The highest PoPs will be
north of I96 where the best shortwave forcing tracks. Given a
general MLCAPE <1000 J/kg and deep layer shear < 30 knots,
thunderstorms should be garden variety storms. Highs will range from
near 80 across the NW CWA where morning showers and cloud cover will
be thickest to the upper 80s across the southern CWA where sunshine
lasts longer.

- Convergent, moist flow through the first half of the week

The pattern for the upcoming week will be dominated by a building
high pressure system over the intermountain west and the
corresponding deep trough moving through the central CONUS that will
bring convergent moist flow over the midwest this week. The upper
level 500mb trough will become a conveyor belt for moisture. Through
this timeframe there is a lack of organized convection, however, the
warm air advection along with the streaming of gulf moisture should
couple with the daytime July temperatures to create an environment
for cloudy skies and daytime showers and afternoon storms. Have
scattered POPs through this timeframe. Latest WPC QPF that includes
Tuesday into Wednesday has around an inch to an inch an a half along
the I 94 corridor.

- Remnants of Beryl and an increase of warmth mid to late week

The big story mid to late week is the track of Tropical Storm
Beryl and its affects on the region as it becomes extra tropical.
The previously mentioned trough will be the main steering
mechanism for Tropical storm Beryl as it moves through the central
United States. The latest National Hurricane Center track has
Beryl barreling through the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys mid
to late this upcoming week with the cone of uncertainty covering
most of Michigan`s lower peninsula by 7 PM Thursday. The biggest
concern will be heavy rain showers due to the Gulf moisture. The
latest mid to long range models, including the various ensembles
tracks some showers from the remnants of Beryl Wednesday and
Thursday. There remains some uncertainty on the track and timing
especially when it comes to where the low will move through. Much
of the ensembles still has the low moving through Ohio through
some operational runs bring much of the moisture over southern
Michigan. Due to this have increased POPS through this timeframe.

Temperatures this week will meander around the upper 70s through
the early part of the week ending in the upper 80s into next
weekend which is just above normal for July.
newest oldest
Jesse (Montcalm)
Jesse (Montcalm)

I hope we get some Beryl remnants. The storms once again largely missed my house. We got trace to 0.05”. Hard to measure when it’s that little on my gauge. Although, The weather lately has been very nice. I am loving the sunshine and temps.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I was thinking of you when I saw the graphic above. I hope get in on some of that.