We have some patchy fog this morning which will dissipate and the sun will bring forth another pleasant day. Yesterday’s high/low was 75/60.
Rain chances will increase as we move through the first half of the week as the Gulf conveyor belt starts to bring more moisture into the state. The remnants of Beryl will bring us our best chances of rain midweek.
NWS Forecast
Weather History
1991: Tornadoes strike across southern Lower Michigan. A tornado damaged about 20 homes near Highland in Oakland County. More damage occurred near Okemos in Ingham County and a home and some outbuildings were damaged as a tornado moved northeast of Rockford in Kent County. A tornado also briefly touched down northwest of Plainwell in Allegan County but did no damage.
1988: Lower Michigan is in the midst of another heat wave as the hot and dry summer of 1988 continues. Temperatures peak at 100 degrees on the 6th at Lansing and Grand Rapids, followed by a record high of 98 degrees on the 7th at Grand Rapids.
On July 7, 2021, a cluster of severe storms moved across the Metro Detroit region with numerous reports of damage to trees and power lines across Oakland and Macomb Counties. Heavy rainfall accompanied these storms with some locations receiving over an inch of rain in about 30 minutes.
On July 7, 2012, the temperature reached 100 degrees in Detroit for the second time in four days. This was the first time that Detroit had reached 100 twice in one year since 1988.
Also on July 7, 2010, the hottest day during a five-day heat wave from July 4th-July 8th occurred. High temperatures climbed into the lower 90s across most areas, producing heat indices in the mid-90s to around 100 degrees. Little relief occurred during the overnight hours as lows hovered at or above 70 degrees. Two heat-related fatalities were reported.
Also on July 7, 1991, A powerful derecho surged rapidly east across Southeast Lower Michigan during the early evening hours and brought widespread wind damage and power outages. Wind gusts of 75 to 85 mph were common in the Ann Arbor, Detroit, and Pontiac areas.
Forecast Discussion
- Dry Sunday With Patchy Fog This Morning Nighttime microphysics imagery shows areas of fog and stratus have developed mainly north of I96 with other pockets on the Lake Michigan shoreline. Additional development will be focused on the region north of I96 and near/west of US131. Isolated pockets of dense fog cannot be ruled out. This fog will dissipate by mid- morning as solar heating ramps up. Dry weather is expected today as surface and mid-level ridging slide across the area. Expect beautiful weather in the form of partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 80s. - Shower/Storm Chances Return Sunday Night Low to moderate (20-40 percent) PoPs return to the forecast Sunday night as warm air advection triggers the chance for showers mainly north of a Holland to Mount Pleasant line. With HREF MUCAPE < 500 J/kg, thunder coverage will be isolated at worst. Highest PoPs will be up near Ludington where low-level isentropic ascent is best. Troughing slowly advances into the upper Great Lakes Monday, with weak impulses ahead of this trough, combined with diurnal enhancement from warm July sunshine, reinvigorating a chance (20-40 percent) of showers and storms Monday. The highest PoPs will be north of I96 where the best shortwave forcing tracks. Given a general MLCAPE <1000 J/kg and deep layer shear < 30 knots, thunderstorms should be garden variety storms. Highs will range from near 80 across the NW CWA where morning showers and cloud cover will be thickest to the upper 80s across the southern CWA where sunshine lasts longer. - Convergent, moist flow through the first half of the week The pattern for the upcoming week will be dominated by a building high pressure system over the intermountain west and the corresponding deep trough moving through the central CONUS that will bring convergent moist flow over the midwest this week. The upper level 500mb trough will become a conveyor belt for moisture. Through this timeframe there is a lack of organized convection, however, the warm air advection along with the streaming of gulf moisture should couple with the daytime July temperatures to create an environment for cloudy skies and daytime showers and afternoon storms. Have scattered POPs through this timeframe. Latest WPC QPF that includes Tuesday into Wednesday has around an inch to an inch an a half along the I 94 corridor. - Remnants of Beryl and an increase of warmth mid to late week The big story mid to late week is the track of Tropical Storm Beryl and its affects on the region as it becomes extra tropical. The previously mentioned trough will be the main steering mechanism for Tropical storm Beryl as it moves through the central United States. The latest National Hurricane Center track has Beryl barreling through the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys mid to late this upcoming week with the cone of uncertainty covering most of Michigan`s lower peninsula by 7 PM Thursday. The biggest concern will be heavy rain showers due to the Gulf moisture. The latest mid to long range models, including the various ensembles tracks some showers from the remnants of Beryl Wednesday and Thursday. There remains some uncertainty on the track and timing especially when it comes to where the low will move through. Much of the ensembles still has the low moving through Ohio through some operational runs bring much of the moisture over southern Michigan. Due to this have increased POPS through this timeframe. Temperatures this week will meander around the upper 70s through the early part of the week ending in the upper 80s into next weekend which is just above normal for July.
I hope we get some Beryl remnants. The storms once again largely missed my house. We got trace to 0.05”. Hard to measure when it’s that little on my gauge. Although, The weather lately has been very nice. I am loving the sunshine and temps.
I was thinking of you when I saw the graphic above. I hope get in on some of that.