We are waking up to 25° this morning with clear skies. Yesterday we managed a meager 42° after a low of 29°. Today we will see sunny skies though we will only be in the 40s. We will see colder air hold in over the area through mid-week with multiple chances for rain and snow. Some light accumulations of snow will be possible Sunday night and Monday night. Temperatures should then warm back up later in the coming week. There are hints we may see the mid-70s by Saturday!
Forecast Discussion
- Still Favoring Snow for Monday But With Limited Impacts Looks almost unavoidable that we`ll see wet snow on Monday with a possibility that some locations will stay snow through the day without changing over to rain or a rain/snow mix. Winter weather headlines across MT/ND reveal the location of our next precipitation event, and mid level WV imagery this morning shows the increase in atmospheric moisture in that region. A weak area of low pressure in association with a mid level shortwave across MT/ND will dig into the Great Lakes region by Monday and consolidate with another low moving up the Ohio Valley. Forecast thermal profiles indicate that snow will be the dominant p-type. GFS and ECMWF surface wet bulb temperatures are forecast to only be in the mid 30s, and given the track of the low and the frequency of precipitation it is doubtful that many locations will get out of the 30s at all on Monday. If we had wet bulb temperatures below freezing, this would be a more interesting event in terms of travel impacts, but given the bulk of the snow will occur during the day in mid April with temperatures above freezing, we are not expecting this to have much if any impact. Slushy accumulations of an inch or two are not out of the question, mainly on unpaved surfaces. The lone exception might be interior Central Lower MI (ie. along and north of a Big Rapids to Mt. Pleasant line) during Monday night into Tuesday morning as temperatures slip down to near the freezing mark, and some briefly slick roads could occur. - High Probability for Light Rain Mid-Week Good model consensus indicates Wednesday into Wednesday night is the next opportunity for precipitation after Monday, this time in the form of light rain. A warm front should lift north into Wednesday as a surface low straddles the U.S./Canadian border and then ejects north of Lake Superior. As mentioned previously, this looks likely to be a 0.25"-0.50" event for our region but still time to watch it. - Warming Up Late in the Week...But Possibly Unsettled Ensemble guidance still favors a warm up by late in the week and into the weekend with upper level heights (500 mb geopotential height) pushing toward 580 dm, which definitely would be above normal for the latter half of April. The peak of the warmth will likely occur Saturday into Sunday. EPS 25th-75th percentile high temperature ranges over the weekend suggest upper 60s to mid 70s is the most likely outcome at this point. However, as the upper level pattern tries to make this transition with building heights late in the week, our forecast high temperatures could have significant bust potential (especially Friday) with some indication that Lower Michigan could be in warm frontal MCS territory. LLJ speed maxes of 40-50 kts appear possible Thursday night and Friday night across the Midwest, and with a surface warm front somewhere nearby we could be rather active with some thunderstorm activity until the ridge builds strong enough (that is the current thinking). The temperature difference on either side of the front could be 20 degrees, so that gradient could pose problems for our temperature forecast.
Here is a photo I took of crocus in one of our flower gardens last we, we also have daffodils blooming.
And finally here are my cats Monster and our youngest addition Maizy – they are best buddies.
Let it snow let it snow snow ….Is it January…lol…InDzy
Rock n roll will never die!
The sun is great, however I am ready for some accumulating snow! Bring it on!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022041712&fh=120
Mike love the photo of your cats You can tell they are best buds. I love seeing all the flowers starting to bloom.
Happy Easter
Christ has Risen! May the renewal of life at Easter bring new blessings of love, hope, peace, good health & happiness to you and your loved ones. I hope you all have a beautiful day!
Happy Easter everyone
My latest point forecast gives me 1.2 inches of snow tomorrow! Incredible!
It looks like tomorrow will be another great golf day, for the crazies that actually golf with temps in the 30’s and snow! Incredible cold for the 3rd week of April! Wow!
Happy Easter everyone!
Here are some weather stats for Easter at Grand Rapids. Got this from a local weather source:
Warmest: 82 in 1976
Coldest: 21 in 1940
Wettest: 1.3” in 1973
Snowiest: 2.5” in 1920
Since records started at Grand Rapids Easter has fallen on April 17 in 1927, 1938, 1949,1960 and 2022. This year and 1949 will end up as being the coldest of the years when Easter was on the 17th back in 1949 the high low was 43/25 and there was a trace of snow fall. 1927 was the warmest with a high/low of 81/53. The official overnight low at GRR was 27 with sunny skies the latest temperature was just 33 a dew point of just 17 and a wind chill of 25. So put on your heavy Easter coat and… Read more »
Happy Easter.
Yesterdays official high of 39 at Grand Rapids was the 10th coldest maximum for any April 16th at Grand Rapids. The high of 39 at Muskegon was the 7th coldest of record there. So all in all a very cold mid April day. We will have another shot at some near record cold maximums on Monday. The overnight low both here and the official reading was 27. That 27 is good for a tie for the 4th coldest low for any April 17 at Grand Rapids. At this time it is partly cloudy and 30 here at my house.
Slim