Well, we made it to the end of the meteorological winter. Tomorrow the crocus will pop out and the birds will sing “hallelujah, spring is here!” Whatever wishful thinking we may have there are still good chances there will be some snow and cold weather as March is a transition month which can be a wild ride. Yesterday there were multiple tornado warnings and watches across the border in northern Indiana, another harbinger of things to come.
Sunshine will be on the increase today as morning low clouds move off to the east. Some mid-clouds will be on the advance late in the day, but most areas should see sunshine this afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 30s to the middle 40s today. A brisk northwest wind is expected this morning. Temperatures should be above normal once again today. Tomorrow we may approach 50° with a slight chance of showers.
Grand Rapids Forecast
2 28 grrLansing Forecast
2 28 lanKalamazoo Forecast
2 28 kzoForecast Discussion
2 28 kzoForecast Discussion
-- Lingering precip diminishing, then some clearing today -- KGRR radar continues to show patchy light reflectivity as of 3 AM Tue. Given the pronounced dryness in the DGZ in recent HRRR profiles, these returns are likely associated with drizzle. Lingering precip should ultimately end later this morning with the loss of cyclonically-curved low-level flow and associated boundary- layer convergence. A weak/diffuse surface high will pass just south of the area today. Forecast profiles exhibit pronounced low-level drying, and recent GOES imagery shows a fairly sharp western edge in the stratocumulus field. Most locations should see at least partial sunshine this afternoon, then high clouds will gradually thicken toward evening in advance of the next system. -- Rain and snow late tonight and Wed; light amounts -- A weak midlevel shortwave impulse will emerge into the Central Plains this afternoon, then approach the region tonight. This impulse will aid in the development of a weak surface low/wave over central IL tonight--southeast of a more prominent low over SD. To the north of the weak surface wave, an area of midlevel frontogenesis will traverse the region late tonight into Wed morning. Models suggest that this frontogenesis should facilitate a corridor of mesoscale banded precip in the forecast area. Forecast thermal profiles support mainly rain, snow, or a mix thereof, with precip possibly ending as DZ/FZDZ once drying occurs in the DGZ. Overall, snow accumulations are expected to be light (1" or less). Dry conditions are then expected on Thu as a surface high passes north of the region. -- Impactful system likely on Fri -- Attention then turns to more impactful winter weather that appears likely on Fri. Models indicate that a 150-kt upper jet currently over the NE Pacific will dive southward later today and Wed. In response, the mid/upper trough over the West Coast will dig/amplify considerably on Wed and Wed night, with a closed 500-mb low reaching the vicinity of AZ/NM at 12z Thu. Ahead of this potent midlevel low, upper divergence will spur surface cyclogenesis on Thu along a baroclinic over the Southern Plains. The resulting surface low will then advance northeastward toward the region on Thu night and Fri, while the associated trough that encompasses the midlevel low will become negatively tilted by Fri morning. Farther downstream, models suggest that a 190-kt upper jet streak will develop over southern Canada / New England on Thu night along the northern periphery of the amplifying eastern CONUS ridge. By 18z Fri, surface-low positions among ECMWF ensemble (EPS) members are loosely clustered in the vicinity of central IL. The SLP field may be somewhat complex during this time, with the deterministic ECMWF solution suggesting that a second SLP minimum may emerge over IN/OH, along with the possibility of renewed cyclogenesis over the mid Atlantic. Nevertheless, in the most likely scenario, a deep surface low (980-985 mb) will pass southeast of the forecast area on Fri or Fri evening, with much of the area traversed by precip within the cyclone comma-head region. EPS ensemble-median (50th percentile) precip over the forecast area has trended notably higher in recent runs, in tandem with the axis of heaviest median precip shifting northwestward. These values now range from around 0.7" at LDM to around 1.0" at JXN. Most EPS members produce accumulating snow over a sizable portion of the forecast area; ensemble-median snowfall through Fri night using a simplistic/uniform 10:1 SLR ranges from 3-9" across the forecast area. While the signal for appreciable accumulating snow has broad ensemble support, the ensemble spread in snowfall amounts at most locations is still large. As is typical, precip amounts and precip type will be sensitive to any NW-SE position adjustments in system track. Indeed, mixed/transitional precip types are shown in the latest deterministic ECMWF and GFS solutions. Lastly, strong surface winds also appear increasingly likely on Fri, with EPS-mean gusts ranging from 40-50 mph across the forecast area on Fri evening. Overall, barring any sudden adjustments in ensemble guidance (unlikely), partner and social-media messaging will soon be needed in advance of impactful winter weather on Fri into Fri evening. -- Slight chance of snow Sat, likely dry on Sun-- EPS and GEFS means, along with the ECMWF, suggest that a shortwave trough may approach the region on Sat or Sat evening, with numerous members producing mainly light precip. Dry weather is favored for Sun as a broad mid/upper ridge axis approaches and surface high pressure likely passes south of the region.
Does anyone know when we are expecting snow on Friday?
Around mid day but still a lot of uncertainty with the severity and exact timing?
If we do indeed get all snow (and I’ll add it will be the wet, heavy snow) combined with sustained winds of 20-30mph gusting higher than that, it would get downright nasty. All depends on the low track
The 8 to 14 day outlook shows below normal temperatures BLUE!! Rock n Roll will never die …INDY
More Winterstorm watches coming?? Rock n Roll will never die …INDY
Bring it!
Off topic but does anyone else have lots of cardinals in your area? I will say here where I live there are lots and can have many in a tree at once at our bird feeder. Seems like there are more here than I see elsewhere. Cardinals happen to be my favorite bird.
I have not seen a lot lately. A few…
I have alot in my area. Lots of trees and spruce trees. Several neighbors feed them too.
Snow storm as March begins! Very fitting for a winter with well above normal snowfall! Incredible winter so far!
The latest discussion is in from NWS GR and they say a big storm could impact our area so guess we shall see. They say there could be an area of freezing rain once again as well.
The latest Euro and even the NAM are showing an even more northerly track than yesterday at this time. This would pull in milder air and even some rain for our southern counties. Mixed precip potentially near 96 with mostly all snow north of GR. However the GFS is not as warm and keeps all snow for GR. Will be interesting to see how the models sort themselves out on the next several runs.
40’s to close out meteorological winter. Very fitting for the warm winter we saw this year.
Winter ends with another snowstorm on the horizon should be the headlines im still thinking the century mark is not out of the question for seasonal snowfall could happen as I sit about 91 inches out in my hood totally amazing…INDY
Yes, all data still shows a snowstorm! Who wouldn’t want cold and snow in March? Maybe more snow storms after this one! Rock n roll will never die! I love long winters! Let’s keep rocking till April!
Winter remains…March snowfall, April snowfall, May snowfall. The Southern Arctic.
Finally someone deals in reality! People that say every your in February that winter is over, winter is dead, nice Spring is right around the corner, are delusional and ignore facts and data! Wow just wow!
There is now some sunshine here. And the current temperature is up to 39.
Slim
I am still shocked yesterday was just a weather advisory. Midland, mount pleasant, and surrounding areas didn’t cancel school and then kids didn’t get home until 6-7pm due to several busses getting stranded. At my house south of the majority of the snow, we got lots of ice. 3 down trees and lots of branches. I had to clear them this morning to get out of the house. This was a worse storm than any other advisory in recent memory.
Thanks for the update. I had seen that areas to the NE of GR had a lot of ice.
Slim
Sounds like an absolute mess!
Off-topic – has anyone been to Tony’s I75 Restaurant, in Birch Run? I hear they are well known for their large portions and serving up to 11000 lbs of bacon every week!
Of course
Years ago when I still lived in Bay City and we used to stop at a truck stop in Birch Run that had large portions but I do not think it was the same place.
Slim
Grand Rapids will end meteorological winter with 58.8” of snow fall that is -1.3 below average. For the season GR now has 86.8” of snow fall. Over at Muskegon they will end meteorological winter with 40.5” and so far this winter season they have just 47.0” both met winter and seasonal snow fall are well below average. At Lansing they will end up meteorological winter with 31.8” of snow fall that is -6.3 below average and for the season they are now at 41.9” and that is just about average. Holland does not keep snow fall records.
Slim
What a winter! Above normal snowfall and now a pending late week snowstorm after we have been told winter is dead! I love long winters with above average snowfall!
Here along the I96 corridor we dodged another bullet. With record rain fall at Grand Rapids 1.09” Holland 1.16” Muskegon 1.25” and Lansing 0.82” and temperatures in the low to mid 30’s we could have had a major ice storm. Its not very often that there is an area wide record rain fall event on the same day. Here in Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 34/23 there was that record rain fall amount of 1.09” there was freezing rain and just cold rain here in NW GR there was a good amount of ice on the trees that… Read more »
Lest folks forget, it’s now almost a week since the I-94 corridor ice storm and 30% of Consumers Energy customers in Hillsdale County still don’t have power. Just awful.
That is true.
Slim
GR is more than 20″ below average snowfall for January and February. Both months have also been very warm. Hello meteorological spring!
For meteorological winter GR will end up with 58.1″ that is -1.3 below average for the 3 months.
Slim
That’s thanks to the early season lake effect snow. A weird winter where the lake was abnormally warm and a few 1-4 day cold intrusions caused the snow to fall over GR
School was cancelled and CMU has a delayed start. We lost several more trees overnight. Lots of ice is still hanging on. At my house we got about 2” of slush and a little over 3 tenths of an inch of ice. 25 miles north got 5-8” of wet heavy snow.
March is definitely an interesting month. We have had years when winter lingers, and years (2012!) where it feels like summer. Based on TWC, it looks like the first half will continue our February pattern with lots of 30s and 40s for highs.
I was looking at old pix tht other day. I pulled the slip & slide out for the kids because not was so hot. Lol
It looks like this coming weekend will be another great winter weekend for outdoor sports! We sure have seen a lot of these! Get your snowmobiles revved up, your skis waxed, ice skates dusted off and your sleds ready to slid! Wow just wow! Winter keeps rocking!
Get ready for the SNOWSTORM! Potential for 6+ inches of snow on Friday! March is here and the cold and snow keeps rocking! I love long winters!