Warmer Winter Nights -Winter Weather Advisory

We have another snow and ice event moving into the area this morning affecting most of the area.  Travel-related impacts are possible near/south of I-96 during the morning, then temperatures will climb above freezing. Across western/central Lower Michigan, somewhat higher icing amounts are expected, with slippery travel between late morning and evening. Power outages are possible in the heaviest icing.

In areas from Grand Rapids to the south, this will be mainly a rain event where we could see nearly an inch.

These are the current Advisories:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one tenth to two
  tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Mason, Oceana and Muskegon counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 5 PM EST Monday.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  1 to 2 inches and ice accumulations of up to a quarter to third
  of an inch.

* WHERE...Lake, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Montcalm and Gratiot
  counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 8 PM EST Monday.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 2 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of less than one tenth
  of an inch.

* WHERE...Osceola and Clare counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 10 PM EST Monday.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS
MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  less than an inch and ice accumulations of around a tenth of an
  inch or less. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Ottawa, Kent, Ionia and Clinton counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 3 PM EST Monday.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS
MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  less than an inch and ice accumulations of less than a tenth of
  an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Allegan, Barry, Eaton and Ingham counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to noon EST Monday.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow wil some mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a light
  glaze. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Midland and Bay Counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EST this evening.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to one inch and ice accumulations of around one tenth of
  an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Shiawassee, Livingston, Oakland and Macomb Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac Counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EST this evening.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth
  of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Saginaw, Genesee, Lapeer and St. Clair Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around a tenth of an
  inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Benzie, Manistee and Wexford Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Tuesday.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From noon today to 1 AM EST Tuesday.

Warmer Winter Nights

The coldest time of year plays an important role in plant, animal, and insect life cycles, recharging snowpack that supplies freshwater, and sustaining snow and ice for winter recreation and associated local economies.

For most of the U.S., the coldest nights of the year are warming.

Climate Central analyzed local trends in the number of coldest nights each year from 1970 to 2022. What is considered a cold night differs from Minneapolis to Miami. Locations were therefore assigned different low-temperature thresholds based on their climatology (see methodology for details).

• Of the 247 U.S. locations analyzed, 231 had at least one day at or below freezing in at least half the years in the period of analysis.

• Of these 231 locations, 204 (88%) have experienced a long-term decrease in the annual number of freezing nights since 1970.

• Of the 204 that have experienced a decrease in freezing nights, the average decrease since 1970 was 13 fewer nights below freezing.

• The locations that have experienced the largest decreases in the number of nights at or below 32°F were: Reno, Nev. (91 fewer freezing nights); Albuquerque, N.M. (45 fewer freezing nights); and Bend, Ore. (41 fewer freezing nights).

• Some locations that previously experienced freezing nights during earlier decades now no longer do—including Las Vegas, Nev.; New Orleans, La.; Phoenix, Ariz.; and several locations in California (San Francisco, San Jose, and Santa Maria) and Florida (Fort Myers, Sarasota, Tampa Area, and West Palm Beach).

Cool places and seasons warm quickly

The observed trends since 1970 are part of a longer-term trend.

• The most rapid warming in the U.S. has generally occurred when and where it’s usually the coldest, including at night, in northern parts of the country—and during winter.

• Winter was the fastest-warming season for 74% of 246 U.S. locations analyzed by Climate Central.

• Nationwide, the rate of warming for nighttime lows since 1900 (1.78°F per century) is about 25% faster than the rate of warming for daytime highs (1.42°F per century).

Fewer future freezes

Climate models suggest that the coldest times of the year will continue to warm if emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases continue.

• The Climate Impact Lab modeled future scenarios of the change in annual days below freezing.

• Under a medium-high emissions scenario, every state in the contiguous U.S. (and Alaska) will experience a drop in days with below-freezing temperatures by 2040.

• By the middle of the century, 23 states—especially in the Northwest, Southwest, Plains, Upper Midwest, and Northeast—are projected to see at least three or four fewer weeks of freezing days.

Fewer freezes: cold weather hazards

Extreme cold comes with serious risks. During the December 2022 winter storm, more than two-thirds of the U.S. population (those under weather advisories or warnings) experienced these risks. The storm and Arctic front sent temperatures plummeting across the central and eastern U.S., left more than one million people without power, and contributed to an estimated 87 fatalities.

A long-term decrease in the number of freezing days and nights may reduce some of the most acute risks of cold exposure among vulnerable populations, including the hundreds of thousands of people experiencing homelessness in the U.S. Hazardous extreme cold events such as the December 2022 winter storm still occur in a warming climate, however.

As the coldest nights of the year warm, the costs of home heating may also decrease, reducing the economic burden on many families. The total U.S. winter heating degree days have decreased since 1974, along with residential winter natural gas usage.

Fewer freezes: cold weather benefits

Although fewer freezing days and nights can reduce the risks and costs associated with the coldest times of year, these trends can also have negative consequences for economies and ecosystems that depend on the cold.

• Warming during the coldest time of year can disrupt snowfall patterns, which can in turn limit snow-fed water supplies that people, agriculture, and ecosystems rely on throughout the year.

• Communities and businesses reliant on winter recreation may find it difficult to maintain snow and ice. That means less ice for ice fishing, fewer cross-country ski days, and shorter snowboarding seasons.

• A lack of cold can prolong the active season and expand the range for disease-carrying pests such as ticks and mosquitoes. According to the EPA, the increasing number of cases and the growing distribution of Lyme disease are indicators of climate change.

• Yields of high-value fruit crops that require a minimum number of winter chill hours can also be impacted by a decrease in the number of freezing days and nights.

(citation https://www.climatecentral.org/

Forecast Discussion

- Wintry mix of precipitation today -

A strong low pressure system centered over northeastern Kansas
early this morning will move ene and bring mixed pcpn to our area
today. Pcpn will develop over our far sw fcst area around daybreak
as a result of strong isentropic lift north of the warm front.
Pcpn will then overspread our area from sw to ne through the
morning.

P-type will be predominantly rain near to south of I-96 but a
brief one to two hour period of -fzra and sleet is possible at the
beginning of the event due to dynamical cooling and sfc temps
near freezing.

North of the I-96 corridor we expect freezing rain with potential
for fzra accumulations on the order of a quarter to third of an
inch. The axis of relatively highest fzra accumulations will
likely occur from near KRQB ese to Alma as suggested by the 00Z
HREF FRAM ensemble mean for ice accretion. Some sleet may mix in
at times.

North of a line from KRQB to KMOP there is potential for around 2
to 5 inches of snow. Relatively highest accums within that range
are expected across our far ne fcst area up around Clare. As a
result of this wintry mix of pcpn we expect hazardous travel
conditions to develop today mainly north of I-96.

- Weaker system to bring mixed pcpn late Tue night/Wed -

A system over the north central Plains will move east and bring a
wintry mix of pcpn late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Light snow
accumulations on the order of an inch or two are possible with
this system mainly over our northern fcst area where cooler
thermal profiles will result in mostly snow for p-type.

- Potential for snow Friday -

A strong low pressure system over the Arklatex region Thursday
evening will move ne and potentially bring significant snow to our
region Friday. It is noted that overall medium range guidance
trends the past 24-48 hrs are certainly further nw with that
system.

In fact the 00Z deterministic GFS would bring our area a
snowstorm Friday while the 00Z GEFS is further south with the
system. The 00Z deterministic ECMWF is also far enough south to
keep heaviest snow south of our area. Nevertheless model trends
with this system will be monitored very closely as it has the
potential to a significant winter storm for portions of our area.