Happy Mothers Day!
We have 38° at 5 am this morning. Yesterday’s high/low temp was 66.6° / 44.1°. Yesterday was the first time in a long time we had a day with no clouds in the sky,
This week will be a boring one weatherwise with the next chance for rain coming next weekend.
- Becoming much warmer this week - Temps will undergo a significant moderating trend for the upcoming week as an upper level ridge amplifies over our region. A strong pressure gradient and deep mixing will result in fairly windy conditions Monday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected. A consensus of latest deterministic and ensemble guidance numbers continues to suggest high temps will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday through Saturday. On days with the most sun max temps could potentially reach the mid 80s and flirt with record or near record highs mid to late week. Please reference the climate section below for record high temps at various locations May 10-14. - Predominantly dry weather to continue this week - Subsidence under the amplifying mid to upper level ridge will bring predominantly dry wx through the upcoming week. It is not impossible that a weakening frontal boundary moving in by Wednesday may focus development of an isolated shower or storm. However moisture and instability seems overdone by some of the latest medium range guidance including the 00Z deterministic gfs. It would seem that subsidence under the ridge should suppress pcpn/convective development. Deterministic 00Z ecmwf guidance looks much more realistic in terms of potential moisture and instability for midweek. The combination of an upper trof approaching from the west by Sunday in conjunction with an upper low retrograding to the nw from the southeastern CONUS may finally bring a chance of rain and convection by then.
High temperatures during the Tue-Sat timeframe are expected to be well above normal. In fact, some area records may be approached or broken. A few of these records are summarized below. This story of much warmer temperatures for next week has not changed for nearly a week. Our long range models have been forecasting this change in our weather pattern since early last week. Since May 3rd nearly every run of the ECMWF operational model has had highs forecast in the mid 80s from Tue through Saturday (that is 10 model runs). The operational GFS model has similar had highs forecast in the 80s. The ensembles of both of those models have a similar story but about 2 degrees cooler (due to then being an ensemble). What happens by early next week is there is a building upper ridge, between the east coast upper level closed low, and the western CONUS closed upper low, creates an Omega Block over the CONUS. That block does not start breaking down until the weekend of the 14th. We are very confident our overall cool pattern since March is about to change. The Omega Block will is a very stable pattern and we can be fairly confident this warmer pattern will last through the week and maybe into next weekend. -- Warmest high temperatures (and year) for May 10-14 -- | 5/10 | 5/11 | 5/12 | 5/13 | 5/14 Muskegon | 90 (1930) | 87 (1930) | 83 (2011) | 84 (1982) | 89 (1982) Grand Rapids | 87 (1993) | 85 (1993) | 85 (2011) | 86 (1991) | 89 (1982) Lansing | 89 (1993) | 83 (1993) | 87 (1991) | 85 (1982) | 87 (1982) Kalamazoo | 83 (2004) | 85 (2011) | 87 (2011) | 85 (2011) | 85 (1998)