Yesterday we managed .01 of an inch of rain from drizzle and light rain. Our temp rose to 58.5° after a morning low of 48° with cloudy skies. Today will be a rerun of yesterday and Tuesday will feature another rainy cool day. Our best chance of seeing the sun will be Wednesday before chances of rain move back in for Thursday.
Forecast Discussion
...Rain this week... We have two systems that will produce abundant rainfall this week. The first will move in Tuesday and the second system arrives Friday. The ECMWF and GFS are a similar take on the track, strength, and arrival of the Tuesday low so confidence is high that we`re going to see rain. Strong isentropic lift on the 295k sfc will quickly saturate the lower atmosphere by 12z Tuesday leading to rain. The h8 front remains just south of I-96 throughout the day and this baroclinic zone will be the focus for rain development. ECMWF ensemble mean is around eight tenths of an inch along/south of I-96. Given the inch plus of rain we say Friday/Saturday over the western cwa, we`re likely to see significant rises on rivers over western Lower. Rivers on the eastern part of the cwa saw less rain and so rivers there should be able to accommodate the rain better. Surface instability with the Tuesday low will be south of the state, although some elevated instability may creep up as far north as I- 96, so we are keeping the mention of isolated thunder. Rain will diminish Tuesday night as the low moves east. Wednesday looks like the brightest day with some sunshine as high pressure ridging moves overhead. Clouds will increase Thursday ahead of the Friday low which looks to take a similar track toward Lower Michigan. Ensemble qpf mean paints another eight tenths or so across the southern cwa south of I-96. This rainfall will push rivers higher with perhaps some localized flooding possible, something we`ll definitely keep an eye on. Severe weather looks like it will remain south of the cwa this week where instability is more favorable for storms. High temperatures will remain well below normal values in the mid 60s today and Tuesday as we expect highs in the 50s. Temperatures will climb into the mid 60s toward the end of the week.
I was in Oxford/Rochester Hills area just the other day. I did not see any blowtorches while I was there but it was a decent spring afternoon while GR was cloudy with rain! Michigan is a big state and conditions can vary drastically. A good example is lake effect snow. It can be near blizzard conditions in GR while it’s sunny and dry pavement at my house. If GR is warmer than Detroit on a winter night because of clouds and it’s clear in Detroit does that make Detroit’s reading to cold because reporting sites to the west are warmer?… Read more »
Another lousy Spring day! Wow!
Only going to get lousier tomorrow!
Yes tomorrow is about as bad as it gets in the month of May! Cold, wind and rain! Horrendous!
Blowtorch!!
Maybe this is one you predicted in March and April! Better late than never! Eventually you get a few above normal days! In is called the law of averages!
You can plant anything you want right now! There will be no more freezes the rest of this season! Mark it down and take it to the bank!
We finally agree! A little longer growing season this year than last year. I love it!
Currently 46* outside in my hood well.well well below average for the fiirst week of May …looks like another week I wait to put grass seed down .we will see then ..INDY
Another lousy weather day and tomorrow will be worse! Wow, just wow!
Looks like a lot of rain coming tomorrow I can only imagine the Grand river is getting high we have had a lot of raim lately..Im ready for a good thunderstorm though..INDY
I am ready for stretch of dry, sunny and 70 degree weather with low humidity! Bring it!
First off, I would like to point out that everyone is intitled to their opinions. And what is good weather to one person may not be good weather for another person. Some people are cold with a temperature of 60° while other are very comfortable at that 60. The people that come to this blog daily know that in the winter season Indy and Rocky love the winter weather. And that Mookie mostly posts on weather when things turn warmer. There is no way that Indy or Rocky is going to change Mookie and there is now way that Mookie… Read more »
Right on Slim and thank you for the weather facts as always we are so due for warm weather! Yes I love the cold over heat anyday but im ready for some warm weather like I have said before May is the time of year we get some real warmth Im glad nect weeks good weather wise I have lots of outside activities to get down before my big birthday party on the 14th …Always love this blog thanks MV for letting me post ….INDY
Agreed – In the past I have blocked posters with hopes that they would change their rhetoric to be respectful and keep their posts weather-related – temperatures, rainfall, historical, storm-related, etc.
If you all remember what the moderators of Bills Blog did when things got out of hand they shut down the commentary. I don’t want to go that route, however, the warning is out there so keep it in mind.
I had a dream last night Bills blog was back crazy we are talking about Bills blog today maybe I will buy a loto ticket lol..Thanks MV for being on top of it! INDY
I wonder what ‘ol Fixxxer is up to nowadays??
The same trouble as before, as evidenced by this blog!
It’s just funny that some things never change. Last year we were having this same type of back and forth and many people on this blog were “upset” about the spring weather in Michigan. But this type of back and forth in the weather happens almost every spring!
Yup and one day closer to Fall I love it!! ..I can handle one month with some 90’s if thats the case this Summer… Maybe Summer will be below average even better! INDY
You also stated many times last May how September was “only 4 months away.”
Thats right the countdown is on ….I love short Summers lol…INDY
If you need a good laugh, here are some posts from last year. Some things never change? Or maybe just short-term memories? LOL May 6th, 2021: Rocky (Rockford) Another lousy golf day! Incredible cool pattern! Wow? INDY Currently 42* degrees in my area that’s officially cold for May standards most people probably would agree with me on that one….INDY Rocky (Rockford) We are entrenched in a cool pattern! The last half of April was incredibly cold and now well below normal temps, frost and freezes for most of May! Wow! Cold, cold and more cold! May 7th, 2021 INDY Wow… Read more »
Well now we know it was cold last May I can remember frost and freeze advisorys also thanks for reminding us …INDY
Facts are facts and we are having another lousy cold spring! Incredible!
While it has been a cold April here in much of west Michigan it has been even colder off to the north. At Duluth where records have been kept since 1875 the high for the month was just 50 that was the 2nd coldest high for any April at Duluth with the 49 in 1917 being the coldest. While there has been some discussion as to why GR has been colder than Lansing to the east. To the east of Duluth at Ashland, WI the high for April was a warmer 64 and to the east of Ashland at Marquette… Read more »
Enjoy the clouds and cold today and the cold and rain tomorrow! According to mookie it should be great golf weather! Ya right!
I’ve been getting in plenty of golf already so far! Beach days on Lake Michigan too.
Heading up to Arcadia Bluffs later this week. Only $100 for 18 holes at the best public course in Michigan. What a deal this time of year!
Too funny!
For those that don’t recall, we saw a very cold second week to May last year including 48 degrees, 54 degrees (including a cold low of 32 degrees), and 53 degrees. Fast forward to this year, and it looks like we will be in the 70’s instead!
We also ended May last year very cold with a high temp of only 51 degrees May 28th.
Delusional!
Coldest April that I can remember ohhh dont forget the clouds to …..Glad its May now!! INDY
April was colder in 2018 that year Grand Rapids had a mean of just 40.1 compared to this year at 43.6. 1995 and 1996 were also colder in April.
Slim
Short memory there LOL
You know it INDY, when you factor in the cold temps, wind and clouds this April felt horrendous!
Well there several nice warm days in April, but most of the days were not all that nice. We have been in a cold wet pattern for around 40 days now and most patterns last around 30 to 45 days so we are due for a pattern change. And it now looks like that it could turn warmer and maybe dryer after this week.
Slim
The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 58/46. There was 0.02″ of rain fall here at my house. There was more sunshine at Lansing to the east where the high did reach 63. With lots of clouds the overnight low was 47 and my house, GRR and Lansing.
Slim
This week looks cold and wet ready for this fall winter like pattern to hit the road for few months lots of outside activities coming up!! Indy
At this time it looks to turn milder by mid week and next weekend looks to be very nice at this time. In fact there are good hints of a big warm up later this month to well above temperatures.
Slim
April in Lansing, Kalamazoo, Muskegon, and Detroit were all pretty close to average. Why was GR, alone, such an exception? Hmmm
And yesterday GR hit 58 and was 1 degree below average but Lansing hit 63 and was well above average. Hmmm
That high of 63 was -1° below the average high at Lansing for May 1st
Slim
Lansing was +2.4 above average yesterday. Low temps matter too.
No, you said the high of 63 was well above average.
Slim
If you were outside yesterday it was cold and windy here in GR. Unlike lets say just north of Detroit where it was a nicer day with temperatures in the upper 60’s
Slim
??? Yikes
False. I said GR hit 58 degrees and was 1 degree below average overall.
Mookie has lost his mind and credibility! The GR temps are accurate and this case is closed! Stop your BS and start talking about something that is relevant and true not fake news! Give me a break!
All locations were below average. As for Grand Rapids for April it was a matter of location and timing and some bad luck. There is no conspiracy. I have not seen a temperature report from you location. BYW just where do you live again????
Slim
+1 and I am sure mookie lives on east side of the state a little north of Detroit! Rock on Slim!
He lives in Flint He told us on Bills blog ..INDY
You know it, not even from West MI! Incredible!
Go ahead and plant. It looks like summer starts next week!
Lol …Summer starts next week but no blow torch this time ….InDY
I would think that it should be OK to plant late next week but tender plants I would be still be careful with.
Slim
April was a wash out! Colder, wetter, cloudier and windier than normal!
Lets hope May is at least a little better than that nightmare!
More horrendous weather on the way today and tomorrow! When will it ever end?