Now that the snow is gone with the exception of a few piles here and there I have started my early spring yard work mainly getting all the leftover leaves out and dethatching the lawn. The seed catalogs have been arriving to start compiling my wish list of what I want to plant this year. I also would like to get the wood for a shed and porch replacement I had to put off last year due to the unavailability of lumber last year. This all means spring is in the air and it is time to get outside and enjoy it!
We reached 61.9° yesterday here in Otsego with the promise of perhaps exceeding that today. We still have a couple of days with these springlike temps before we fall back to normal over the weekend. Overnight lows for tonight and tomorrow night will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Of course with that comes the rain which may total an inch or more over SW Michigan.
River basins where enough snow remains on the ground are at risk of minor flooding later this week, depending on how much rain falls Wednesday into Thursday. Flooding, if any, would most likely affect low-lying areas near riverbanks which typically see flooding in the spring. More significant flooding is currently not expected.
We haven’t had any measurable rain in quite some time which has created a fire hazard in those areas where leaves are still on the ground and in wooded areas.
Dry air, warm temperatures, and gusty winds will increase the danger of fires spreading out of control this afternoon.
Forecast Discussion
-- Mild today through Thursday -- Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front stretching across far southern Lower near the IN border. Temperatures are in the mid 40s south of the front and lower 30s north of the front. As low pressure in the Plains moves northeast, we`ll see that front move north and temperatures across the CWA will climb into the 60s again. The lakeshore will see warmer temperatures today due to a southeast wind that will keep the cooler air from the lake offshore. Conversely, the southeast winds will bring some cooler air off of Lake Erie and keep the southeast CWA a bit cooler than they normally would be. We`ll see a mix of clouds and sun to go along with those warmer temperatures as IR imagery points toward quite a bit of mid and high clouds over the Corn Belt drifting east. The mild air will continue Wednesday at least for the southern CWA where temperatures will climb into the 60s again. As low pressure gets closer, showers are expected to develop northwest of a Grand Haven to Mount Pleasant line and that will hold temperatures down in the 50s. The southeast CWA will likely remain dry Wednesday. -- Showers Wednesday and Thursday -- Showers that develop Wednesday will be warm advection related and mostly fall over the northwest CWA. Models are pretty consistent in painting a tenth to a quarter inch in this area. The rest of the cwa will be mainly dry. The cold front will move through Thursday and all areas should see some rain. LI`s fall to around -1c over the southern CWA so it`s not out of the question that we could see a thunderstorm or two, but the better instability remains well south of the CWA. There`s quite a bit of spread in model QPF with the ECMWF being the lowest. Generally a quarter inch of rain is expected from the ECMWF, but the GFS paints well over an inch in across the southern CWA. Most of the models show a clear bifurcation too with the least amount of precipitation from Holland northeast to Mount Pleasant. Generally we`re thinking a half inch to inch over the southeast CWA and a quarter to half inch over the northwest CWA. This will likely result in river rises, especially across the Muskegon basin where there is still a snow pack. -- Dry and cooler for the weekend -- Once the cold front moves through, we`ll dry out late Thursday and high pressure will build in. Temperatures will fall into the 40s for highs through Sunday.
Get ready!
https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2021030918&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=192
That’s friggin hilarious!!
Looks a lot better when you change it to actual snow depth!
https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2021030918&time=PER&var=SNODI&hour=192
Whatever snow we get now won’t stick around long.
Sixty Nine Glorious Degrees in Allendale .
Heck yeah Jack!! Spring is springing!!
Yes it Is. I Love it!!
It was beautiful outside today! Good to see you on here.
Up to 64 degrees officially in GR at 3pm!
Looks like WOOD was too low again with their forecast of 60 today.
Looks like they took Rocky off from drawing up the CPC maps today! Back to near to above average for the 8-14 day temps again! Bill Steffen will not be happy about that! He was banking on another cool down for the end of the month!
I have the window open in my office. So nice to get some fresh air. 61 currently here, and 65 in Holland (SE wind).
What’s funny is Kirkwood threw in the towel on winter nearly 2 weeks ago.
https://www.woodtv.com/weather/snow-conditions/snow-conditions-report-feb-25-2021/
Next week still looking great so far!
And temps still in the mid to upper 40’s long term!!! I love front loaded springs!!
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/b4ea0280869baa46799dc75eacef8904785ec43ad2f6fb098355fbc208a55e2c
I’m leaving for Orange beach Alabama on the 20th GFS shows a possible small hurricane around the 24th down there I would love that ….INDY
Oh man INDY!! Hopefully it doesn’t stay around long though, so you guys can have some nice weather down there!
I’m sure it will change long ways out but I will watching for it …. beautiful day outside I’m thinking about a walk have a good one Andy …INDY
You too INDY!! I’ll be working outside tonight when I get home!
I love skiing in March and I fully expect more ski trips are on the horizon! Incredible!
You can almost always ski in Lower Michigan in March with man made snow. Not very good conditions this year, however, and may be a shorter ski season than usual.
The quality of the snow has been fantastic this year!
Wait till next week it will feel like Winter around here again woo woo …INDY
56 degrees Tuesday. Get ready LOL
Now that we are in meteorology Spring and no thunderstorms yet can we say thunderstorm drought continues like other droughts that our posted on here ??? Lol..INDY
I am not sure how unusual it is to go from mid November into March with out a lightning strike but we shall see how long it take for that to happen.
Slim
The forecasted high of the mid 60’s would make today one of the warmest March 9ths in Grand Rapids history. It has only gotten 60 or warmer 4 times on any March 9th. The record high of 68 was in 2000 and in 2016 it reached 64 and it reached 60 in 1977 and 1898. It should also be pointed out that the first 8 days of March 2021 have been one of the sunniest of any first 8 days of March. I think we are running neck and neck with 2010 at this time.
Slim
Last time we felt 60* degrees or better was November 19th 2020 so we are do that was awhile ago…But soon the 30’s will be back …INDY ..
I saw ants and flies yesterday. It appears that no only humans are having spring fever.
How high do we get today? WOOD has 60 degrees. NWS GRR says 67 degrees.
Forget spring. Today will have an early summery feel to it.
Incredible WARMTH today! It will be nice to get rid of my gross snow piles out by the road! I love front loaded springs!
Here is a fun fact. Todays record high at Grand Rapids is 68 and that is the coolest record high for this whole week.
Slim
The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 57 and that that is the warmest it has been since November 20th. Here in my neck of the woods there is still snow in the woods and on the north side of buildings and of course the good old snow piles. My biggest snow piles are now down to less than 2 feet and could be mostly gone by tonight. The grass here is mostly brown so it will take some warm rains to green it up. I have some spring flowers showing up around the yard but nothing in bloom… Read more »
I still have 2 to 3 inches of snow on the ground and it looks great! What a winter for skiing, snowshoeing and ice fishing! Incredible!
GR last reported measurable snow on the ground 9 days ago.
Good pint because that is south GR ad I am in North Rockford! Get a grip!