Many forecasts this year are pointing toward a wet winter this year. We have La Nina in play and cold air rapidly building snow cover in Siberia and possibly Arctic excursions of cold air coming more into play than we did last year. It won’t take much to exceed the snowfall accumulations we had last year which really isn’t saying much because we had less than 40 inches in Otsego last winter.
Last year the Arctic low spun at the north pole without much movement. This year there are hints of warming which may cause it to move however it is unknown if it will move into Eurasia or the North American Continent or back and forth. This is dependant on high-pressure blocking and where these may set up shop. As I have said before a lot has to come into play for snowfall to come into the U.S. or Michigan for that matter.
Last year, with the exception of the U.P. and northern lower Michigan we saw very little in the way of Lake effect snow which depends on cold air moving across Lake Michigan from the West, Northwest, or southwest. Last year a northern wind was more prevalent.
We have already have had early snows in the northern plains – up to nine inches fell in Iowa yesterday. This may be a sign of an early winter for us northerners.
We could have a more active winter this year, but that is not saying it will be all snow. As of now, we are in a transition zone with cooler air to the west and warmer to the south and east which would give us a stormier pattern of all rain or a mix. I am wondering if this will be our setup for this winter.
With the setup we have now I am hesitant to say what winter will be like this year, it could go either way. I don’t use analogs because each winter is unique in its own way. This year I am taking the cowards way out in saying we will have a ‘normal’ winter. That said, last year’s guess was in opposition to what we actually had so, with my forecast it could go either way…
As we get into November I will have more thoughts on this winter as the setup may become more apparent…
Your Local Forecast
Michigan’s first winter weather advisory of the season in effect for the UP. This as I mowed my lawn again. I love October.
Brett Anderson came out with his 2020/21 winter guess. While his guess is for Canada for those of us living in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Dakotas there is enough of a over lap that his guess get into our area. His guess is pointing towards a warm winter with less snow for much of our area. Here is his summery for the winter season. “Overall, in terms of temperatures, the core of the Arctic air is expected to hang out across northern BC and the Yukon Territory, though there certainly can be brief spells of bitterly cold air through… Read more »
Ohhhh and currently 44* degrees out at thee YARDofBRICKS NE of GR again pretty cold for mid October standards starting to sound like a broken record but whoe’s complaining lol…INDY
Almost vacation time for you with 70’s coming in late October? LOL
As Slim was saying coldest October since 2008 thats a long time ago I suspect we will be feeling the same thing going into November December and January as all forcast point to a near average temps and and above normal precipitation “Snow” we are ready ..Have a good Tuesday INDY
Was taking a look at the weather at University of Minnesota for the big game this weekend. Multiple chances of snow with highs in the 30’s all week. It’s amazing we are so much warmer in Michigan!
Looks like we could see highs in the 70’s on Thursday and Friday. Average high is now in the 50’s.
At this time Grand Rapids is on track of having its coldest October since 2008. In the past there has not been a clear path that a cold October leads to a cold or snowy winter. The fall color here NW of Grand Rapids is still very good to in places great. There are now some trees that have lost all of their leaves thought. At this time it is cloudy and 43 here at my house.
Slim