Todays Weather Forecast
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SW Michigan Forecast
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SE Michigan Forecast
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Northern Michigan Forecast
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U.P. Forecast
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Forecast Discussion – Northern Michigan
.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Impactful weather: None. Pattern synopsis and forecast: An upper level weak shortwave/trough was over nrn Michigan early this morning, underneath overall ridging aloft, while at the sfc, we still had a ridge axis laid across the region, coming from a center of high pressure in Quebec. There was still some pockets of mid level clouds around nrn Michigan, but no precipitation. PWATs were greater across NW lower Michigan up to 1.25", while the relatively drier air (just under an inch PWAT) was across mainly the eastern CWA. Further upstream, larger scale upper troughing was across the eastern half of Canada and lee side of the nrn Rockies. A deeper moisture and instability channel was seen lifting up through the central and northern Plains ahead of this troughing, resulting in spotty areas of convection. The sfc ridge axis is going to hold across the region today through much of tonight, while the weak upper level trough/shortwave lingers today, before ultimately getting sucked into the larger scale upper troughing that approaches by late tonight. Not expecting anything exciting per se as far as weather in nrn Michigan, but considering the late day shower/storm in the GTV Bay region yesterday, gotta consider this happening again today within lake breeze convergence expected in far NW lower this afternoon/early evening, especially with no apparent cap in place. Also, the approach of the larger scale trough late tonight, and MUCAPES growing to several hundred j/kg, are intriguing, but the LLJ/convergence is well north of us. All-in-all, a chance of seeing a shower or storm across primarily NW lower and eastern upper is small to say the least, but not impossible. The chance would be in far NW lower this afternoon and early this evening (maybe Gladwin/Arenac counties too from Lake breeze convergence off Saginaw Bay?), and late tonight into daybreak for eastern upper and mainly along and west of I75 in nrn lower. Confidence is pretty low and pretty much all areas are likely to see no precipitation. Highs today will be in the middle to upper 80s most areas, slightly cooler lakeshores. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to the lower half of the 60s. .SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 High Impact Weather Potential: Thunderstorms/low-end severe threat Saturday afternoon/evening. Pattern Synopsis: An amplified shortwave will progress from Northern Lake Superior across Ontario Saturday as a blocking ridge centered over Quebec tries to hold firm. Additional troughing slides overhead on Sunday as this ridging exits towards the Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone associated with the shortwave will deepen and trek across Ontario into Hudson Bay by Saturday, sweeping an attendant cold front down across the Great Lakes through Saturday night. Forecast/Details: Confidence has increased in the cold front swinging through the area Saturday afternoon/evening, which is faster than previous day`s thoughts. Although low-level flow across the Great Lakes will be weak, southerlies will help bring a corridor of low/mid 60s dewpoints into northern Michigan by Saturday afternoon. Destabilization is expected shortly after noon with daytime heating through partly cloudy skies in the AM, resulting in instability of 1,000+ J/kg MLCAPE across interior northern lower ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show somewhat steep lapse rates for the region, especially in the low-levels, but meager shear will really hinder more serious severe potential. A severe storm or two can`t be ruled out Saturday afternoon/evening: however, any stronger storms that develop will struggle to sustain themselves in an environment characterized by <25 kts 0-6km bulk shear and wind speeds aloft that struggle to reach higher than 20kts in the lowest 500mb. When strong updrafts/cells develop, the expectation is that most will quickly dump their cores before being able to produce hail sizes aloft large enough to reach the surface above severe criteria. Inverted-V near- surface profiles and near 600 J/kg DCAPE could help support some severe wind concerns, especially when stronger cells begin to dissipate. The front is expected to move through by Saturday night, ending any severe concerns at that time. Uncertainty lies in rain potential on Sunday after the frontal passage brings low-level subsidence, despite upper-level support and weak lingering instability. Current confidence is relatively low in additional rain developing outside of eastern upper and the eastern half of the forecast area. Otherwise, highs near 80 drop down into the mid 70s on Sunday heading into a week of much cooler temps across norther Michigan as of late with sustained northwest winds behind the front. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 High Impact Weather Potential: None Upper-level troughing is expected to encompass the area from the Great Lakes up into Hudson Bay at the start of the week while ridging dominates west of the Mississippi River. High pressure will continue to build into the region from the northern Great Plains underneath subsidence aloft provided at the ridge/trough inflection point. This, combined with low-level moisture being purged from the region over the weekend, will keep rain chances low through much of next week. No notable systems will result in relatively weak winds, thus delayed return flow/moisture return. However, cooler temps have their sights on northern Michigan through the long term. After the cold frontal passage over the weekend, afternoon highs look to drop down into the lower 70s through early next week and may not reach back into the 80s until the end of next week/next weekend. Some chillier overnight lows in the mid 40s could bring a slight taste of fall to the area.
Forecast Discussion – Southern Michigan
-- Hot with a chance of an afternoon showers/storms in the south and east -- The upper ridge that has dominated the weather pattern this week will begin to break down this afternoon. This weakening ridge will be sandwiched between two upper level low pressure systems. One, is a weak wave will be moving through the Ohio valley and a stronger, deeper system that is making its way through the upper Midwest today. As the weak system in Ohio moves northeastward, it will bring moist easterly flow across the Lower peninsula. This will increase the unstable CAPE to southern Michigan. Couple this CAPE with the hot daytime temperatures that are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s and you get a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The latest CAMS have storms sparking after 4 PM. However there remains several limiting factors. First, is the remaining stability of the region. That will stifle any convection from forming. The next is the lack of shear and upper level forcing. Any convection that does form, will be late in the afternoon, and will be in the east, near Jackson to Lansing, and south, perhaps on a very weak boundary south of Kalamazoo. -- Best chance for storms Saturday evening -- The beformentioned system that is currently moving through the upper midwest, will trek through Michigan, on Saturday. The front weakens, with no convection expected through the first half of Saturday. However, the latest models have the system regaining its strength as it moves through central Michigan late Saturday. There is some moisture pooling ahead of it, but given the lack of diurnal heating and timing, any convection will quickly move into south east Michigan. - Cooler and drier trends next week -- We will become under the influence of general trough aloft for much of next week. This results in much cooler temperatures, and a mainly dry forecast. The latest model trends keep the upper jet mainly north and northeast of the area, on the anti-cyclonic side of the jet. A few isolated showers can not be ruled out, especially on Monday with a short wave not far away. However, ridging in the lower levels being produced by the upper ridge to our west should keep most of the area dry most of the time. In addition, moisture will be quite limited once it gets swept out on Sunday. Temperatures will only get into the mid 70s on Monday, and will slowly rebound to the lower 80s by Thursday.
https://www.weather.gov/oun/sfcmaps
Current Surface Map.
Crazy radar day. Storms growing in the SE, and moving to the NW :/
We are desperate for rain. They are so close. The sky is black to the south and east.
Wow, I know there are some who think this summer has been hot here but this is from Phoenix
Most days at 115F or better: 7 days and counting (old record 7 from 1974)
Most days at 110F or more: 37 days and counting
Most lows in the 90’s: 20 days and counting (old record 15 from 2013)
I am sure glad I do not live in Phoenix
Slim
I don’t know how one would live in that. You would be stuck inside for the entire Summer.
Yesterday’s official high at Grand Rapids was 86. At my house and at Muskegon the high was 88 and to the east at Lansing it was 85. The overnight low both at the airport and here at my house morning was 64. At this time, it is 66 here at my house.
Slim