I was surprised to see that Allegan and Barry counties to the south were not included in the abnormally dry areas in SW Michigan in the monthly drought update. Our last decent rainfall was on 6/14 so the ground is getting parched and the grass is brown where it hasn’t been watered. This is the problem with hit-or-miss rain, one area gets dumped on while another a short distance away remains dry. We need a good soaking rain in the Otsego/Plainwell area.
Yesterday’s high was 89° and the low was 60°. We have a 50/50 chance of rain in our area according to the NWS with a 40% chance for Kent County.
Forecast Discussion
-- Chance of showers/storms today -- Above a surface cold front which will slide through the area today will be some support for scattered shower and thunderstorm development this morning into mid afternoon: - Modest upper level divergence over southern Michigan midday associated with a jet streak entrance region. - Mid-level lapse rates a fair 6.5 to 7 degrees C/km within a high plains sourced EML plume. - A ribbon of moisture streaming in at 800-700 mb. - MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg and effective updraft-layer shear around 30 knots. There may be some mitigation of convection this morning in the I-96 portion of the area as lift will be minimal at that time from upper level dynamics and 850 mb wind speed divergence. The latest CAMs/HREF members tend to increase convection around I-94 (and/or farther south) during the early/mid afternoon, and this convection may trend toward being surface-based east of Kalamazoo. CAPE in the hail growth layer looks fairly thin, but upper level shear may support some at least small hail growth despite the thin CAPE, and any hail melt could contribute to downdraft enhancement into a well mixed atmosphere below 5,000 feet. If updrafts do become more vigorous or organized in southern Michigan, it could result in locally gusty winds with downpours at the surface. The threat of severe weather is marginal. -- Holiday weekend outlook -- Ensembles of the GFS/Euro/Canadian are in moderate agreement for the Independence Day weekend featuring Sat/Sun near-normal temperatures, comfortably low dew points, and minimal chance of rain under high pressure. Temperatures will likely be warmer and dew point higher on Mon the 4th, with shower/storm chances increasing late in the day as upstream convective complexes on the northern periphery of the "ring of fire" pattern move through the Midwest. -- Next week -- Though far from settled, the pattern could support occasional thunderstorm chances Tue/Wed/Thu as a strengthening subtropical upper-level high over the southern CONUS develops with a quasi- zonal jet over the northern CONUS. Later in the week, this heat dome high may migrate toward west-central or western CONUS while troughing would be favored over the Northeast. Michigan may end up in the temperature goldilocks zone (near-normal July warmth) while the brutal heat (above-normal even for July) is kept west/southwest.
There is a steady stream of traffic heading north on 127. Have a great weekend everyone and happy birthday America!
I posted this the other day but it was later in the day so I figured I’d post it today in hopes more people see it. We are planning a trip to the Western UP this fall to see the fall colors there. Anyone ever been up near the Porcupines to know when peak fall color is there? I know it prob varies per year. We are trying to time it right. We also are going to go to Houghton and the Keweenaw Peninsula up to Copper Harbor.
Kyle. It kind of looks like the last week of September and the 1st week of October are historically the best times for fall color. But it can be a little later near the lake. And of course it depends on other factors as well. Here are a couple of links for you.
https://www.exploringthenorth.com/color/color.html
https://mymichiganbeach.com/michigan-peak-fall-colors/
Slim
We’ve been up there several times for our anniversary which is September 24 and most times the color has been just stunning and near its peak. We go to the top of a ski lift, Copper Peak, and the view from up there is unlike anything I’ve ever seen.
Good to know. Thanks for all the info!
4 days this summer so far with temps 90 or better. June started out cool but things quickly turned around and overall it was a great month. July is probably my favorite month of the year with June my 2nd favorite. We could use rain in West MI so hopefully this month we can make up some of that deficit.
A brief look at June 2022. At Grand Rapids the June mean was 69.2 That was a departure of just +0.3 so the month was just about average. The High for the month was 95 on the 21st and the low was 45 on the 4th there were 3 days of 90 or better 10 days of 85 or better. The coolest high was 65 on the 8th While there were 2 nights when the low stayed above 70 most nights the lows were in the 50’s and there were a few lows in the 40’s. It was a sunny… Read more »
For June:
Lansing had 19 clear days, 10 partly cloudy days, and just one 1 cloudy day.
GR had only had 9 clear days, 19 partly cloudy days, and 2 cloudy days.
In looking at other locations I have to wonder why GR reported only 9 clear days. Other locations as you stated Lansing 19 clear 10 PC and 1 Cloudy. Kalamazoo 19 clear 11 partly cloudy and 0 cloudy. Holland 20 clear 9 partly cloudy and 1 cloudy. Battle Creek 18 clear 11 partly cloudy and 1 cloudy. For Muskegon the report is the same as GR (9, 19 and 2) Not sure if there is a mistake for GR or not.
Slim
Wow +0.3 pretty much average month in the temperature dept … Boy we would of thought it was a +10 on here lol… Only 2 more months and its September woo woo!! Happy 4th of July’s weekend Slim ….INDY
Rock on n Indy and some on here always say it is above normal temps! Incredible!
What, June was a normal temp month despite the constant warm weather hype! How is that possible? Some things will never change!
07/01/2022
Welcome to July. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 89/62 there was no rain fall and there was 85% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 101 was set in 1931 the record low of 44 was in 1982. The overnight low in MBY was 71 and it is still 71 here with cloudy skies.
Slim
Michael,
I am glad I wasn’t the only one surprised by this too. I thought how are we not in it.
I will be picking some raspberries today and making some freezer jam. My one blueberry plant has a ton of berries, but they are still green. I bet another week or so.
Happy July!!! I hope everyone has a nice long weekend. Be safe with any fireworks!!!