Yesterday’s high was 71° and the low was 52°. We had .32 of an inch of rain which passed through in the morning. We now have 3.35 inches for the month and 10.61 inches for spring.
Rain chances increase this afternoon with up to an inch by Monday morning.
SPC Forecast
NWS Forecast
Weather History
1961: Snow flurries are observed across Lower Michigan as record-cold air moves in. Temperatures fall well below freezing the next morning, wiping out much of the fruit crop.
On May 26, 1968, 2.56 inches of rainfall fell in Detroit. This is the greatest daily rainfall total for the month of May in Detroit.
1771: Thomas Jefferson recorded the greatest flood ever known in Virginia. The great Virginia flood occurred as torrential rains in the mountains brought all rivers in the state to record high levels. Click HERE to read Jefferson’s entry in his Garden Book.
1917: A major tornadic thunderstorm took a 293-mile track across parts of central Illinois and Indiana. Once believed to be a single tornado, the later study indicated it was likely at least eight separate tornadoes. The first touchdown was about 50 miles south-southeast of Quincy, Illinois. The tornadic storm tracked due east, before beginning a northeast curve near Charleston; separate tornadic storms then curved southeast from Charleston. The towns of Mattoon and Charleston bore the brunt of the tornado. Damage from this severe tornado in Mattoon was about 2.5 blocks wide and 2.5 miles long, with over 700 houses destroyed, while the Charleston portion was 600 yards wide and 1.5 miles long, with 220 homes damaged. Dozens of farms were hit along the path, and at least three farm homes were swept away between Manhattan and Monee. Another estimated F4 tornado touched down 6 miles south of Crown Point and devastated a dozen farms. A total of 7 people died, and 120 were injured. 53 people were killed in Mattoon, and 38 were killed in Charleston. Overall, 101 people in Illinois were killed during the tornado outbreak, with 638 injured.
2003: A BMI Airbus bound for Cyprus from Manchester, England encountered a violent thunderstorm over Germany. The plane bounced and twisted violently as it ran into severe turbulence with huge hailstones pounding the exterior. A football-sized hole was punched in the aircraft’s surface. None of the 213 passengers or eight crew members was seriously hurt.
2009: Northeast of Anchorage, Alaska, two hikers climbed a ridge to see a developing storm better. Lightning knocked the couple unconscious. Regaining consciousness, they called emergency services as the woman was unable to walk. The man’s shoes looked as though they had melted.
Forecast Discussion
- Showers and Thunderstorms Arrive Late Afternoon A Marginal Risk for severe weather remains near and south of I-96 today and tonight, with a Slight Risk south of I-94. Overall there are two periods of interest. One will be from late afternoon into early evening with the arrival of a surface warm front, bringing a risk for thunderstorms that have primarily a hail threat. The other period is later at night out ahead of a surface cold front where there is a limited opportunity for a few storms to pop, which could contain a locally damaging wind gust and some hail. The right entrance region of an upper jet moves in later today. At the mid levels, a 500 mb shortwave trough is forecast to move into WI between 18z-00z. An 850 mb low is set to track across southern WI and central/northern Lake Michigan late this evening and tonight. A surface low is shown by the ECMWF to be near Milwaukee by 00z. The RAP13 is very similar. Using the HREF, the surface warm front is forecast to move through the CWA in the 4pm-8pm time frame from SW to NE. Broad consensus exists amongst the CAMs that a band of showers and thunderstorms will be associated with this front. SBCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg at most are forecast, but 0-3 km shear looks poor with generally 20 kts or so expected, and 0-6 km shear a bit better at around 35 kts. The risk for severe storms appears low with this line, with hail being the main threat. After the warm front lifts, there will be a limited opportunity for storm redevelopment in the warm sector just ahead of a surface cold front. The problem with this scenario is that the window for surface based instability regeneration is small, and the timing of the cold front passage (in the 04z-08z Monday time frame) is not favorable for severe weather. Some of the CAMs show no instability being regenerated, and little to no convection reforming. This is a real possibility. The HRRR probably has the most (~1000 J/kg), which could help yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms given growing 0-3 km shear values around 35 kts. Overall, the risk for severe winds/hail looks low tonight but if any storms can form in the warm sector, some locally damaging gusts would be the main threat. While the risk for a weak tornado is not zero, there is not enough high resolution model agreement on the airmass destabilization and degree of curvature in the lowest 3 km of the hodograph, per sample soundings across the region, to warrant much of a threat to the region at this time. - A Few Showers Possible Memorial Day The upper wave and surface low pull away toward northern Lower MI and the U.P. on Monday. A few leftover showers are possible primarily north of M-20. The pressure gradient force will help deliver wind gusts around 30 mph especially Monday afternoon. In addition, given low level cold advection, high temperatures will noticeably dip into the low to mid 60s, making for a rather cool day. - Considerable Clouds With Showers Monday Night Through Tuesday night An upper trough will be situated over the Great Lakes region from Monday night through Tuesday night. Shortwaves will be working through the upper trough. This setup typically features a fair amount of clouds, especially diurnally driven clouds. Showers are likely as well with the maximum coverage occurring during afternoons and evenings when instability is maximized. This increase can even be seen in global model precipitation output. We have thunder in the forecast as well. MUCAPE values increase to around 1,000 j/kg on Tuesday afternoon. Not out of the realm of possibilities to see some small hail on Tuesday given colder temperatures aloft with the trough. Any rainfall should be on the lighter side during this time frame as the deeper lower tropospheric moisture will have been shunted east and south with the cold frontal passage tonight. - Drier With A Warming Trend Wednesday Through Friday Surface and upper ridging will work through the Great Lakes region mid to late week which will insure that we see dry weather. Thermal trough will be overhead on Wednesday when mid afternoon 850mb temperatures bottom out around +4C. Wednesday will likely be a bit cooler of a day given the thermal trough and the fact we may see a fair amount of diurnal cumulus as we see some cyclonic curvature trying to hang on before the ridging moves in. All in all a quiet weather period mid to late week. Temperatures should warm a bit each day with 60s on Wednesday, warming to near 70 for Thursday and into the 70s for Friday. - Rain Returns To The Forecast For Next Weekend There is some disparity in the forecast for Saturday as the ECMWF moves a cold front into Wisconsin during the day and into our area Saturday night. The GFS is slower with this progression. At this point we have low pops in the forecast for some showers (20-30 pct). At this time range a tough call as to which model has a better handle with the pattern trending more zonal. Feel our low pops are warranted. Another warm day regardless, with highs in the 70s again.
Get ready for a stretch of dry weather! Incredible!
We squeezed out about a half inch of rain! I will take it!
Line just moved over Ada…gusty winds, a few flashes, and very heavy rain.
Earlier this week the NWS predicted we would get .75 inches of rain and we picked up less than a quarter inch! The rain for today looks like another bust. They had predicted an inch of rain and that won’t happen! Probably another .25 inch is coming! Horrible forecasting but I will take any rain we can squeeze out! Bring it!
I hope everyone had a chance to get to the Senior PGA Championship in St Joe. Wonderful event. Sad to see it leaving Michigan.
We seen a well-pitched game yesterday and out Tigers came out with a 2 to 1 wind. One of the issues with a day game in Detroit is there is almost no shade and it gets hot in the stands on a sunny day. Even with sunscreen on my wife looks like a lobster. It was 82 when we left Detroit and it was 76 at Lansing and down to 72 here in Grand Rapids. So yes Mookie it can be cooler in GR than off to the east of here.
Slim
Who would have thought? Incredible!
The official H/L yesterday was 73/57 there was 0.33” of rainfall. The sun was out 78% of the time. The highest wind gust was 24 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 73/52 the record high of 90 was set in 2010 and 2020. The record low of 34 was set in 1897 and 1974. Last year the H/L was 75/37
Slim
The overnight low here in MBY was 51 and at the current time with cloudy skies it is 58.
Slim
No hot air in sight! I love it! Rock n roll will never die baby! Incredible!!