Powered by Tomorrow.io
Chance of Storms Today – The Michigan Weather Center
MichiganState Weather Alerts
There are currently no active weather alerts.
  • Home
  • /
  • Chance of Storms Today

Chance of Storms Today

I had to drag out the hoses to water yesterday, it is getting a bit dry.  We have a lot of flowers and gardens which suck up a lot of water.  There is sand under the dirt and compost we have to put down every year when we plant.

There is a 90% chance of rain for SW Michigan late this afternoon into the evening hours with a quarter to half an inch possible.  Three-quarters would be nice as that is what is normal per week and that is what the lawns and crops like to keep happily growing.

Saturday looks to be cooler with highs around 70, the mid-70s for Sunday, and the mid-60s for Monday.  There is a chance of rain every day but it doesn’t appear to be a total washout.

NWS Forecast

Increasing clouds, with a high near 84. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 60. South southeast wind 9 to 13 mph. The chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers are likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 am. Cloudy through mid-morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 69. Westnorthwest wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 50. West northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
A slight chance of showers then showers likely, and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Southeast wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2 am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am. Low around 56. The chance of precipitation is 90%.
Memorial Day
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66.
Monday Night
A chance of showers before 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 51.
A chance of showers after 8 am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 48.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low of around 42.
Sunny, with a high near 72.

SPC Forecast

Day One Outlook

Day Three Outlook

Weather History

1890: One person was injured as a tornado destroyed one home and a dozen barns northeast of Ithaca in Gratiot County.

On May 24, 1925, the temperature climbed to only 44 degrees in Detroit, setting the record for the record-low maximum on this day.

Also on May 24, 1971, an F2 tornado moved through Tuscola County at 8:30 PM. This tornado is responsible for 1 injury and over $50,000 in damage. This was the strongest tornado ever to hit Tuscola County since 1950.

1896: An estimated F4 tornado passed ten miles north of Des Moines, Iowa during the late evening. As many as seven members of one family, at the north edge of Valeria, Iowa, died as they ran to the storm cellar. Five others died in a nearby home. A steel railroad rail was reportedly driven 15 feet into the ground. The death toll was at least 21.

1973: An F4 tornado tore through the small town of Union City, Oklahoma, killing two and injuring four others. This tornado was the first storm to be studied in detail by the National Severe Storms Laboratory Doppler Radar Unit at Norman, OK, and an armada of researchers in the field. Research of the radar data from the storm would lead to the discovery of a “TVS,” or Tornado Vortex Signature. The presence of a TVS on Doppler radar data is a very strong indication of tornadic potential in a severe thunderstorm. Click HERE for a video of the Union City tornado. Click HERE for more information from NSSL.

2002: The last measurable snow of the season fell in Marquette, Michigan. This snowfall brought the city’s seasonal snowfall to 319.8 inches, by far the city’s snowiest winter ever.

Forecast Discussion

- Potential for Severe Storms This Evening/Tonight

Quiet weather starts our day as we look to this evening for
thunderstorm activity. A mid-level trough curls northwards from
the northern Plains while a corresponding surface low over the
Dakotas also pivots northeastwards into southeastern
Manitoba/western Ontario. Thunderstorm activity will occur along a
trailing cold front as it sweeps through the Upper Mississippi
Valley and into Lower Michigan.

Timing still seems to favor the 8pm to 2am window with storms
entering the decaying phase as diurnal instability declines. An
additional instability element to consider will be decaying shower
activity/convection ahead of the main cold front convection and
whether that activity will put a damper on available instability as
the cold front arrives. The 0z HREF keeps MUCAPE sub 1000J/kg across
most of lower Michigan with values up to 1000-1500J/kg nosing just
into Berrien/Van Buren/Cass Counties.

Storms will originate in Iowa and move east into Wisconsin and
northern Illinois before arriving in lower Michigan late this
evening. Wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms develop
in a linear mode with some bowing segments possible. While the SPC
Outlook keeps the Slight Risk across far southwest Michigan,
severe wind gusts will be possible up much of the lakeshore.
Several hi-res models key in on the frictionless lake dynamics and
advertise strong gusts as far north as Ludington as the front
crosses Lake Michigan and arrives at the West Michigan lakeshore.

- Potential for Severe Storms on Sunday

A deepening low pressure system is forecast to be moving into the
Great Lakes from the southwest on Sunday. The low reaches the low
990s mb by Sunday evening as it moves into the Northern Great Lakes.
A warm front will be lifting north through Lower Michigan during the
day with a cold front poised to move in during the evening. The low
looks to be driven by a convectively generated lead vort within a
broader trough moving our way from the Plains. Given the depth of
the low, its not surprising wind fields are strong. 850mb LLJ
strength is 40-50 knots and increasing into the evening. The mid
level jet at 500mb is 50-60 knots. Deep layer shear is strong.
Instability is forecast to be moderate to high as higher dew point
air surges in with the warm front. At this point the SPC Day 3
outlook for Sunday is south of our area, but can see this creeping
north into Lower Michigan with time as model differences are ironed
out and confidence increases. All severe hazards could be in play on
Sunday across the forecast area.

- Turning A Bit Cooler with Showers Monday and Tuesday

An upper trough gradually develops overhead as we head into the
holiday and Tuesday. Showers will occur on both days but it will
not be a total washout. Shortwaves will be working through the flow
over the Great Lakes, so its hard to envision totally dry forecast
periods Monday through Tuesday night. Upper ridging gradually works
in for Wednesday and Thursday along with a surface high. Dry weather
is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures also cool from the
70s on Sunday...back into the 60s for Monday through Wednesday.


newest oldest
Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Some rain would help…

Jesse (Montcalm)
Jesse (Montcalm)

Yup. Getting dry. Storms keeping breaking up and splitting over Lake Michigan.


With one week to go May 2024 has a mean of 62.3 that is +4.5 at this time it is the 10th warmest May on record. The high for the month is 85 and the low is 40. If that 40 holds for the rest of the month it will be the 4th warmest low for any May. There has been 2.36” of rainfall and that is -0.64. At the current time it is clear and 54 here in MBY.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Hopefully that trend comes to a crashing end this summer! Bring on cool temps with low humidities! Forget 90’s!


The official H/L yesterday was 77/54 there was no rainfall and the sun was out 100% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 73/51 the record high of 89 was set in 1977, 2007 and 2010. The record low of 33 was set in 1925 and 1963. The record rainfall of 1.25” fell in 1981. Last year the H/L was 67/45.