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Another Rainy Day

We had a trace of rain yesterday with a high of 64° (briefly) and a low of 54°.  Most of the day was in the mid to upper 50s.

Today will feature a rainy day with a chance of a weak storm this morning then perhaps a few peaks of the sun this afternoon before showers return tonight.


NWS Forecast

Today
There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2 pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5 pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 68. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. The chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tonight
There is a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 51. Northwest wind 3 to 7 mph.
Wednesday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 am, then a slight chance of showers between 8 am and 11 am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11 am. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind 6 to 8 mph. The chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 44. North northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 71. Calm wind becoming north-northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low of around 43.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.
Saturday
There is a chance of showers after 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77.
Saturday Night
There is a chance of showers before 8 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 57.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Monday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84.

Weather History

1955: A series of tornadoes put down an intermittent damage path more than 60 miles long from near Schoolcraft in Kalamazoo County to east of Grand Ledge in Eaton County. One person was injured northwest of Charlotte as a barn was destroyed. Two homes were unroofed and total damage was estimated at 150,000 dollars.

1991: A tornado damaged homes and destroyed outbuildings near Hart in Oceana County.

On May 28, 2013, numerous thunderstorms spawned six confirmed tornadoes in Shiawassee and Genesee Counties between 8:30 and 10:30 pm. Storm surveys revealed 2 EF0, 2 EF1, and 2 EF2 tornadoes had occurred in addition to sporadic wind damage. The damage included numerous snapped trees, lost roofs, and a destroyed barn. The most significant damage occurred a few miles east of Grand Blanc near the intersection of Hegel and Gale Roads, where a house was nearly destroyed in addition to a garage and external storage facilities.

Also on May 28, 2012, afternoon high temperatures soared to 95 in Detroit and 93 in Flint, both records for the month of May.

Also on May 28, 1991, an F1 tornado spoiled dinner plans for the people of Huron County when it hit at 7:10 PM causing roughly $5000 in property damage.

1880: An estimated F4 tornado hit Savoy, Texas. The storm killed 14 people, and 60 others were injured. It leveled the entire business and northeast residential sections. The tornado was described as “a funnel blazing with balls of fire.”

1973: An F3 tornado moved east and struck the northern portion of Athens, Georgia. Destruction was massive near Athens, with losses estimated at ten million dollars. Damage from the storm included 545 homes and 17 businesses. Hundreds of large trees more than 100 years old were destroyed.

2015: Some parts of Oklahoma have seen more than a foot of rain during May 2015. Storms killed at least 17 people in Texas and Oklahoma, and more than a dozen are still missing. State climatologist Gary McManus from the Oklahoma Climatological Survey calculated the May rainfall total averaged over all Sooner State reporting stations through midday May 29 – 14.18 inches – was easily outpacing the previous record wet month, set in October 1941 (10.75 inches).


Forecast Discussion

- Showers and possible storms late today into tomorrow

 Today`s weather pattern will be dominated by a large upper level
low that is situated over eastern Canada. That low has a long wave
trough that extends across the lower Peninsula. Copious mid level
moisture will keep the region mostly cloudy today with periods of
showers today. A weak upper level ridge could allow for some
breaks in the clouds this afternoon, mainly along and west of the
US 131 corridor.

 Latest soundings are fairly moist through the sounding and
although there isn`t a ton of CAPE, there could be just enough
mid level instability to allow for storms to develop late this
afternoon into this evening, mainly along and east of the US 127
corridor. Cold air aloft behind this trough could allow for small
hail with any storms.

 Temperatures today continue to be below normal though potential
breaks in the clouds should allow for Max Temps to get into the
upper 60s to low 70s.

 A secondary trough will drop down through the region tonight
into Wednesday. A boundary will drape through southern Michigan
with showers continuing tonight into tomorrow morning along and
south of the I 94 corridor. Forecast QPF shouldn`t be significant
but upwards of a half an inch of rain is possible especially along
the I 94 corridor.

- Dry Thursday and Friday

We`ll have picture perfect weather to end the week as a Canadian
surface high passes directly overhead. Dew points in the 30s/40s and
highs 70 to 75 will make for pleasant daytime conditions, but also
chilly overnight temps in the 40s. Even some colder reading in the
mid to upr 30s and patchy front possible in nrn sections both
Wednesday Thursday nights.

- Showers Possible This Weekend, Mainly Saturday

GFS/ECMWF are in a little better agreement now regarding weekend
rain chances. Looks the main threat for showers comes on Saturday
and is related to a shortwave which tracks northeast from the
Central Plains and passes through lwr MI during the afternoon.
Southerly return flow on the back side of the departing sfc high
sends a corridor of higher PWATs in ahead of the shortwave however
instability looks quite limited so the thunder risk is low. A period
of subsidence behind the Saturday wave may support a dry Sunday,
although a few afternoon pop-up showers inland from Lk MI cannot be
ruled out.

- Warmer Early Next Week; Daily Storm Risk

Guidance is in good agreement showing a return of above normal temps
early next week as the main upper jet/stronger westerlies sets up to
our north; near or just north of the U.S./Canadian border. Daily
highs in the lower 80s are expected but rain chances/timing are
difficult to nail down given zonal flow pattern and low
predictability of potential shortwaves. Higher dew points and better
instability should support a daily risk of diurnal storms though.


newest oldest
Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Enjoy this week if you like the comfortable weather. Next week looks warm and humid… I personally enjoy the summer heat, but I don’t have to work outside and I have A/C… other ppl are not as lucky

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Heat and humidity is the absolute worst! Horrible!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Thunder and small hail at my house currently.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Fun (?) fact: There have been more than 1,900 tornado warnings issued already this year.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Definitely some cool nights ahead both tonight and tomorrow night. Might see some patchy frost according to the NWS.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Just another cloudy, windy, below normal
temp day! Wow!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Good for having the windows a crack open to let in fresh air but not at night it’s a little too chilly. Today and tomorrow are not going to be good beach days!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

It sure looks like some very cold nights this week! Wow, just wow, WOW! Cold , cold, cold! Incredible!

Mookie
Mookie

It sure has been a warm May. The warmth just won’t stop!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Getting some sprinkles now with rumbles of the thunder

Slim

The overnight low here in MBY was 54 I had 0.03” of rainfall. At the current time it is 55 with light rain falling.
Slim

Slim

Yesterday was a very cool, cloudy late May day with the official H/L of 63/54 there was no rainfall and no sunshine. The peak wind gust was 33 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 74/53 the record high of 94 was set in 2018 and the record low of 33 was set in 1894 and 1949. The most rainfall of 1.86” was in 1984. Last year the H/L was 80/49.
Slim

INDY
INDY

Great beach day anybody want to join INDY ?? Bring a blanket and a umbrella 😆…..INDY

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I hope everyone had a great weekend. We certainly did. The weather could have been much worse. Saturday and most of Sunday were fantastic.

*SS*
*SS*

Yes. I will take a weekend like that. Lol. Glad no severe storms were around this area as they were predicting.
The mist/drizzle didn’t deter people from being at parades either … Bonus…I didn’t have to spend time watering all my plants for a day. Lol.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Saturday/Sunday were great… Monday was chilly but at least dry