We have tickets for today’s Tiger game so we will be on a road trip to Detroit. Well the start of meteorological summer just around the corner it is a good time to talk a look at what the major models are hinting at for this summer. Most indications are that we will be going from an El Nino to a La Nina this summer and into the fall and next winter. So what does that mean for out summer season?
The shift from one phase to another starts below the ocean surface. With the aid of the trade winds and ocean currents, temperature anomalies at depth move from west to east, eventually coming to the surface over the eastern Pacific. The summer of 2024 will be in the middle of the transition period from one ENSO phase to another, maybe creating some unusual anomalies in the process. The general trend for this summer is for a warmer than average summer season and there is a possibly that there could be a good deal of thunderstorm activity as well. I will post a link to a site that has the top long range models and will let you go over them and see what each one has on tap for this summer. Rember this is only a trend and nothing is set is stone.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/51 there was not rainfall before midnight. The highest wind gust was 23 MPH out of the SE. There was 49% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 73/52 the record high of 91 was set in 1977 and the record low of 31 was set in 1992. The most rainfall of 1.27” fell in 1970. Last year the Y/L was 67/41.
The overnight low here in MBY and the current temperature is 62 I had 0.22” of rainfall while the airport has had at least 0.33” so far.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
342 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
– POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SUNDAY EVENING
– COOLER AND SHOWERY FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY
– DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2024
– POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SUNDAY EVENING
SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT LEADING TO
QUIET WEATHER TODAY. FOCUS TURNS TO SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY FOR
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AN MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS USHERS IN A
STAUNCH SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND OCCLUDES WHILE MOVING INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS, CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS STILL PRETTY LACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. DETERMINISTIC NAM
AND GFS BRING THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE THE
EURO IS TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE BRINGING THE LOW TOWARD THE
TIP OF THE MIT. A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD PUT
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND SUPPORTING MORE
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT, WHILE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD
KEEP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN
WITH THE EURO ADVERTISING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK INSTABILITY IS
STILL LIMITED FOR OUR AREA. ALTOGETHER IT APPEARS THE TRENDS ARE
FAVORING KEEPING THE BETTER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE
WHICH REFLECTS WELL WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK WITH MARGINAL UP
TOWARDS I-96 AND SLIGHT JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY CREEP UP TOWARDS I-94 TO I- 96, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY TO KEEP TO OUR SOUTH.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH ENSEMBLE 24 HOUR QPF RANGING FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO OVER 1 INCH ACROSS THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PWAT VALUES
NOSE UP TOWARDS 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
– COOLER AND SHOWERY FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO PRESS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD
MEAN HIGHS IN THE 60S. SHOWERY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SITUATED
ABOVE THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND CLOUDS/SHOWERS. IT WILL NOT BE A RAINOUT BY ANY MEANS, BUT
WE WILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS.
– DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DRY WEATHER IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH BOTH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WEDNESDAY THERE COULD BE
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO +3 TO +4 C WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG HEATING FROM A LATE MAY SUN ANGLE WILL
LIKELY BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY, RISING INTO
THE 70S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids
Today
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7am and 8am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 72. Southwest wind around 10 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Increasing clouds, with a low around 54. West northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Sunday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 78. Southeast wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Low around 59. Southeast wind 9 to 11 mph becoming south southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Memorial Day
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 44.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 75.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near
Very little rain around 5:30am, five or six flashes, quiet thunder. Back to dry today…🌧🤞
Have fun at Comerica! The Tigs have stunk lately but they did break five game losing streak last night. Let’s hope it continues.
We had .32 of an inch of rain this morning plus a lightning bolt and clap of thunder which scared the dog. Yesterday’s high was 83 and the low was 49.
Yes .. there were some some pretty loud claps of thunder. Woke me up.