Yesterday’s high was 70° and the low was 51°.
We start our warmup today in Michigan after an extended cool period. Slight rain chances are forecast well east of 131 today with better chances coming late Saturday into Sunday morning. Monday we will be back into the 80s then low 90s on Tuesday.
Forecast Discussion
-- Small chance of a few showers and isolated storm this pm -- We will see another round of a chance of a few showers, and perhaps an isolated storm this afternoon and early this evening. We remain under the influence of broad troughing aloft, with weak impulses embedded in the flow. Another short wave is forecast to move through the area during peak heating today. One main limiting factor is a lack of instability that will be available. Models are indicating only a few hundred J/kg are expected to be generated for multiple reasons. The first one is that there is not a lot of moisture to work with with low level dew points only expected to be in the 50s. Another is that temperatures will be limited with a lack of good heat here, and a flow off of Lake Michigan. Finally, with the flow off of Lake Michigan, we see a mesoscale ridge over a good portion of the area downwind of it. The best chance for some rain will be the further east you go. The chance of rain will diminish after the early evening hours as we lose the diurnal instability, and the short wave axis passes by the area. -- Better chance for rain late Saturday through early Sunday -- We will see a break in the rain chances then tonight through the first half of Saturday, before the arguably best chance of rain comes in late Saturday and Saturday night. Another short wave in the broad upper trough will come in with a little bit later timing than the Friday wave. The Saturday wave will be a bit stronger in nature, and will have a bit better of a low level jet nose pointing at the area. Most of the area has a likely shot of seeing rain showers at some point between late Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. Thunder chances are pretty low, but not zero during the period of rain expected. Sfc based and elevated lifted indices indicate that values will drop close to around 0C. Regardless of the thunder chances, the limited nature of instability will keep severe chances down to near zero. Some light rain showers may linger early on Sunday, before clearing takes place toward the afternoon hours. The main wave will be through by 12z Sunday, but another weaker one will be moving through centered around 18z. This should keep a small chance of a shower for inland areas away from Lake Michigan with a westerly component to the wind off of the cooler waters. -- Hot weather moving in next week -- Once the rain chances end on Sunday, our attention turns to the heat that is expected for a portion of next week. The broad upper troughing that is bringing these small chances of rain each afternoon will lift out by later Sunday, leaving a less unsettled weather pattern generally speaking. We will see the heat building beginning in earnest on Tuesday. This will be the case as the upper ridge builds over the area in response to a digging trough over the Western third of the country. As the ridge builds, we will see the edge of the heat push toward the area centered around Monday night. This is likely to fire off some thunderstorms over the state, or see an MCS that forms upstream of the state roll over the area on the theta e gradient. Once the heat makes it here by Tuesday, that is when we will see the warmest temperatures of this pattern move in. There is potential for max temps to be as high as the mid 90s F with 850 mb temps of 23-25C moving overhead and mixing down. We don`t know if we will get quite that warm, as the subsidence with the ridge may limit diurnal mixing a bit. Either way though, we will see temps around 90, with dew points in the 60s producing heat indices approaching 100F. A cold front will come through toward the Thursday time frame, tempering the heat a bit. The upper ridge will get pushed east some, and we will see lower heights move in and push a sfc cold front through. This was looking like it would push through Wed night. Now, the latest trends are for a frontal passage more centered during the daylight hours of Thursday. If this does indeed happen, we would be looking at an increased chance of some stronger storms. Still a ways out in time, with plenty of details to be determined.
2 years ago today we just got done with a round of strong/severe storms. There was a Moderate Risk in place for areas basically along and east of M-66. There was widespread wind damage across West Mi. Calhoun County was hit very hard and 2 semis were overturned in Gratiot County along US-127.
Bill is calling for a heat wave next week.
https://www.woodtv.com/weather/sizzlin-seashells/
WOW a high of 94… hopefully people are careful next week. That is definitely dangerous territory especially for Michigan
My phone has been bobbing back and forth between 96 and 97. Granted that may be high, but still very hot.
Our garage sale was a success today. Lots of people came to the sale and made quite a bit of money. Always good to clean out a basement/barn of things you don’t need and try to make a little extra $$ especially right now with how expensive things are. Couldn’t ask for better weather! Tomorrow looks good as well.
Get ready: 90’s next week!
90’s ??? INDY
And heat indexes around 100!
Once the heat makes it here by Tuesday, that is when we will see the warmest temperatures of this pattern move in. There is potential for max temps to be as high as the mid 90s F with 850 mb temps of 23-25C moving overhead and mixing down. We don`t know if we will get quite that warm, as the subsidence with the ridge may limit diurnal mixing a bit. Either way though, we will see temps around 90, with dew points in the 60s producing heat indices approaching 100F.
A 2 or 3 day Pattern shift short of a long lasting heatwave then thats fine wirh me glad i have the fams in the windows ….INDY
A 2 day heat wave! What a joke!
What another picture perfect today in store today! We have been getting spoiled.
Yes a very nice below average day indeed! We will take it!! INDY
I’ll take 75 and sunny any day!
Too bad we can not have it sunny and 75 here in January. That would be great. But then we no longer be living in Michigan. Cloudy and 73 here at this time. I am going to go out and cut the grass.
Slim
Wood tv 8 dayer till shows 76 next Friday I can handle 2 or 3 days of some heat but nothing hot …INDY
WILX for Monday through Saturday:
83,90,95,85,87,86
11 degrees difference for next Friday. It will be interesting to see which station is the better prognosticator.
Most of the outer sites have temperatures in the 80’s for next Friday. But that is still a long way off and things can change.
Slim
It still looks like the area is on tap for a brief two day of so “heat wave” next week. With the cooler than average highs we have been having it will indeed fell very hot. Not sure how long the heat will last. Also remember even in some of the coolest summers there have been days when it has gotten up will into the 90’s (as it may next week) and also remember even in many of the hottest summers there have been days that have been cool with highs only in the 60’s That is just the nature… Read more »
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 72/51 There was a reported 0.01” of rain fall. And GR had 77% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here at my house was 50. At the current time with sunny skies, it is 61. For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high of 93 was set in 1933 and 1996 the record low of 36 was set in 1980. June 2022 has been off to a cool start all across Michigan. Here are some of the mean temperatures and departures across southern lower Michigan. At Grand Rapids the mean… Read more »
The temps for next week are right up my alley. Maybe a day or to a little steamier than I like but I’d rather have it hot than cool!
Todays weather is good for our garage sale.
Just another COLD morning! Wow!
I don’t consider 50s COLD, especially when the average low is in the 50s.
The daytime highs have been cooler compared to average than the overnight lows have been. And it has been warmer in Lansing than in other locations so far this June. For some reason Lansing is the only major location that has a mean of above average in the whole state of Michigan. Must be a lot of hot air in Lansing!
Slim