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Warming Trend – The Michigan Weather Center
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Warming Trend

All in all, it has been a fairly good summer weather-wise this year.  We have no drought conditions this year.  July is considered our driest month but we have had near or above-normal rain thus far.  We have no drought conditions this summer compared to the last few years.

Yesterday we had a high of 79° and a low of  55° with mostly sunny skies during the day.  Fair weather will continue through Saturday. Daytime temperatures will climb a few degrees each day going into the weekend. By the end of Sunday, we may start to see a few showers and thunderstorms as the humidity starts to increase.


Weather History

1896: A tornado struck a few miles northeast of Battle Creek, seriously injuring one person as it destroyed a farm home and barns in Pennfield Township, Calhoun County.

1973: A tornado damaged a mobile home and some farm wagons two miles southeast of Clare, Michigan.

1977: Canadian high pressure brings record cold temperatures of 46 degrees at Muskegon and 47 degrees at Grand Rapids.

On July 26, 2012, training thunderstorms produced a band of torrential rainfall and some severe weather mainly north of the I-96 corridor. Despite strong winds downing some trees and power lines north of I-69, the main impact was heavy rainfall, including a 2-day (July 25-26) total swath of 1″ to 2″ across the Saginaw Valley

On July 26, 2007, numerous reports of large hail occurred with storms that blew up in the very unstable air mass over Southeast Lower Michigan. The worst of these storms hit eastern Shiawassee County (around Durand) and further south in Lenawee and Monroe counties (in and around Adrian, Petersburg, and Samaria). Hail up to the size of golf and ping-pong balls was seen in a few of the worst storms.


NWS Forecast

Today
Sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming south-southeast around 5 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Calm wind.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming south-southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Light south-southeast wind.
Sunday
A 20 percent chance of showers after 2 pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. South wind 3 to 6 mph.
Sunday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers after 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 67.
Monday
There is a chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. The chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Tuesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers before 8 pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8 pm and 2 am, then a chance of showers after 2 am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 66.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

Forecast Discussion

- Clear and Pleasant through Saturday

Surface high pressure axis moves overhead today as a sharp upper
level ridge noses in from the west. Expect a few diurnal cumulus
clouds but otherwise mostly clear skies today and Saturday with
high temperatures peaking in the low to mid 80s. The more potent
axis of upper level smoke from Canadian wildfires will move to the
south mid to late morning but some subtle haziness may linger
into this afternoon.

- Risk for Showers and Thunderstorms later Sunday into Tuesday

The mid to upper level wave in southeast TX lifts slowly up the MS
Valley and  the western Great Lakes Region by Monday.  The models
have trended downward with the instability for Sunday afternoon with
mean ensemble values mostly under 500 J/kg.  We will lower the risk
for showers/storms then.  Better instability is seen for Monday,
when the wave will be tracking through.  The CAPE values peak in the
afternoon/evening with better than 1000 J/kg looking likely.  We
will continue to feature  higher POPs then.  Mean PWAT values make a
run at 1.75 inches Monday into Tuesday so some of the rain could be
locally heavy.  The trough persists into Tuesday and thus another
round of showers/storms during the afternoon/evening looks possible.

Beyond Tuesday there`s a decent amount of uncertainty in terms of
how much shower/storm activity we will see.  Aloft we will see some
troughing persisting.  This cooler air aloft will support an
increased potential for afternoon/evening storms.   Ensemble qpf
values show a lot of spread. It`s likely that the warm and unstable
airmass will persist based on temp/pwat/CAPE projections so we will
maintain a low risk for mainly afternoon activity each day.