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Dry Through the Weekend

We had .10 of an inch of rain yesterday morning which gives us 2.93 inches for the month and 8.93 inches for meteorological summer.  Yesterday’s high was 77° and the low was 60°.  The only tropical disturbance is TS Bud off western Mexico which poses no threat to land.

Heavy to excessive rainfall will persist through Thursday from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana, bringing the threat of flash, urban, and small stream flooding. A Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall is in effect through Thursday. Dangerous heat will continue across the Western U.S. and northern Plains through Thursday. High temperatures could reach or exceed 100 degrees.  There are also flood watches through the eastern Carolinas.


Weather History

1943: The USS Muskegon, named after the Michigan city, is launched from Superior, Wisconsin on a day with scattered showers and a high temperature of 86 degrees at Muskegon, Michigan. The ship saw duty in World War Two, escorting convoys across the Atlantic. The ship also took weather observations and served as a radio and light ship for transatlantic flights until after the end of the war.

2005: An extended round of severe weather from the evening of July 25th into the morning of the 26th produced widespread wind damage across Lower Michigan. A tornado struck three miles west of Baldwin and downed hundreds of trees at a campground. Fortunately, most campers had left just hours earlier, and there were no injuries.  Below is my Radarscope archive image as the storms moved in late night on the 25th.

On July 25, 2017, the low temperature fell to 47 degrees, tying the record low temperature for the date originally set in 2013.

On July 25, 1986, Genesee County reported an F1 tornado at 5:05 pm that caused 1 injury and 25 thousand dollars in damages.


NWS Forecast

Today
Sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the morning.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming south-southeast around 5 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low of around 57. Light south-southeast wind.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 85. South southeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 62.
Sunday
A 30 percent chance of showers after 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 8 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 68.
Monday
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86.
Monday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 69.
Tuesday
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

Forecast Discussion

- Smokey Sunset Tonight and Dry through Friday

High pressure dominates the area as upper level ridging builds into
the region. Conditons are expected to stay quiet and dry through the
end of the week with considerable sunshine and temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Only thing to note will be a knob of smoke
descending into the state this evening originating from Northern
Canada. Though skies will stay mostly clear today, conditions
will turn more hazy in the late afternoon to evening with a
red/orange sunset expected.

- Above normal temperatures over Weekend and into next week

The deeper warm air advection strengthens Saturday into Sunday as
700 mb ridge shifts east of the area. Temps at 850 increase as a
result Saturday into Sunday.  Mixing to that level supports low to
mid 80s Saturday and mid to upper 80s Sunday.  These values are in
alignment with the latest ensemble guidance. There is a slight trend
upward from previous runs with the max temps which will be reflected
with this forecast.  Looking ahead, any fronts that move into the
region, fall apart and the prevailing flow will be from the
southwest.  Thus the upcoming week looks warmer than normal.

- Risk for Showers and Thunderstorms Sunday into Tuesday

A weakening mid level shortwave tracks northeastward into Lower MI
later Sunday into Sunday night.  Moist air advection strengthens as
a result and PWAT`s climb to 1.5 to 1.75 inches.  We start to see
some instability Sunday afternoon and evening. Given the moisture,
lift and instability, we could see scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing  There are some indications of an 850 mb
low level jet setting up over western parts of the CWA Sunday .
evening. This could provide some added lift for the convection to
persist into the night.

A second mid level wave tracks in from the west later Monday into
Tuesday. PWAT`s climb further, up to around 1.75 inches. Many
ensemble members show values approaching 2 inches, which given the
low level flow from the southwest, may be closer to reality.  It`s
worth noting that upstream areas in the middle MS Valley have been
very wet over the past month so that could enhance the moisture into
our region early next week. Ensemble guidance shows surface based
CAPE values climbing up to around 1500 J/kg both Monday and Tuesday
afternoons. Given the likelihood for a very moist airmass in place
along with mid level lift, scattered to perhaps numerous
showers/storms could occur, some with locally heavy rain.  The bulk
shear from 0 to 6 km remains low, which will limit any severe
weather risk through Tuesday.
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Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Crazy dangerous weather all over the US for the past month or so, yet it continues to be just delightful here. No complaints from this guy.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Yep the major heatwaves have mainly been to our west, and most of the rain has been at night. Pretty good July!