Wildfire smoke from our friends in Western Canada has returned. According to air currents, we can expect it to move in and out for the remainder of summer into fall.
Current Smoke
With any rain today and tonight, the smoke will move closer to ground level where we can smell it. Chances of rain are 20% today for southern Michigan rising to 50% tonight into Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected.
Weather History
1883: A half-mile-wide violent tornado killed three people as it moved southeast from near Eaton Rapids to south of Leslie.
1999: Severe weather struck central Lower Michigan, with two weak tornadoes touching down in rural areas. One struck near Mount Pleasant, but only lasted a few seconds and produced no damage. Another brief touchdown was reported during the early evening hours in Tustin, in Osceola County, where minor damage was produced to one home.
On July 23, 2010, severe thunderstorms moved through areas along and south of I-94. The strongest storm produced a measured 82 mph wind gust near Whitaker. That storm also produced an EF0 tornado along Judd Road between Hitchingham and Whitaker Roads. Maximum estimated winds with the tornado were around 80 mph, with a path length of 0.6 miles and width of 100 yards.
Also on July 23, 1999, Detroit experienced up to 70mph wind gusts with a strong storm that moved on through.
NWS Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Increasing chances of showers/storms The 06z surface analysis shows low pressure over central Wisconsin. The low will be the catalyst for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through Wednesday. Warm moist air will provide some fuel for any storms that can develop today as the low moves across the lake. SBCAPE values around 900 j/kg and LI`s near -6c indicate as much. However, shear values aob 20kts means that we`ll be looking at non severe storms. Weak wind flow could result in locally heavy rainfall. The track of the low over the northern half of the cwa would point toward that area having the highest chance at seeing 213precipitation this afternoon and tonight, especially over the northern 2 rows. As the low moves east, the trailing cold front will spur more convective development Wednesday. Wednesday will also see higher SBCAPE values...1500j/kg...and bulk shear...35kts. It`s possible that some of the convection tomorrow may try to organize which could lead to a wind threat in the stronger storms. We trimmed pops a tad Wednesday due to recent model trends showing a slightly quicker frontal movement that may not realize the max afternoon heating. - Fair Weather Thursday into the Weekend Surface high builds in behind the cold front for Thursday and upper shortwave ridging will see a stretch of fair weather with warming temperatures into the weekend. It will be cool Thursday night with lows dropping into the lower/mid 50s and some upper 40s in the cooler rural areas. The sfc high moves east on Friday with return flow moisture building into the weekend. The next chance for rain will come late Sunday night or Monday as upper ridging moves east and heights fall, with troughing approaching from the west.
Just had a crazy cell move over my house. 1” of rain in 20 minutes and lightning strikes everywhere. One hit my electric fence and destroyed the charger and it happened to send electricity up my Ethernet lines to remote access points, destroying them too. Tomorrow morning I will try to find the strike.
Holly cow! No rain here!
…A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SHIAWASSEE…
NORTHERN LIVINGSTON AND SOUTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM
EDT…
At 702 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bancroft, or near Durand, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD…Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE…Radar indicated.
IMPACT…Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include…
Flint, Fenton, Durand, Burton, Swartz Creek, Linden, Corunna,
Cohoctah, Byron, Bancroft, Lennon, Gaines, Oak Grove, Lake Fenton,
Argentine, Vernon, Rankin, Conway Township, Tyrone Township, and
Deerfield Township.
MV I cannot see the radar on here. Did something change? Sandy
It just wouldn’t be summer without smoke in the sky, am I right??
Late afternoon yesterday, I was thinking boy it seems like smokey skies. Saw last night I tht news I was right. Lol!!!
Mark…yes what is summer without smokey skies now???
We are now just over 2/3rd through July 2024 it has been cooler and wetter than average July at Grand Rapids. The mean so far for July is 71.0 that is -1.8. it is the coolest mean since 2014. The highest so far has been just 86 the is the coolest high for any July since 2009 and the low of 47 is the coolest low for any July since 2001. There has been 5.33” of rainfall so far this month.
Slim
July is the best month to be “cool”. Temps in the 70s and 80s are my favorite!
The official H/L yesterday was 83/63 there was 73% of possible sunshine. Yesterday H/L was right at average for the date and that is also today average. The record high for today is 101 set in 1934 the coldest high was 60 in 1992. The record low of 45 was set in 1947 and 1985 the warmest low of 74 was in 4 years the last one was 2012. The most rainfall of 2.65” fell in 2021. There was no rainfall overnight here in MBY and the overnight low was 58 at this time it is clear and 59.
Slim