We received a hefty 1.26 inches of rain overnight, this put us in the above-average amount for July rainfall. We have 5.22 inches for the month so far and 7.84 inches for the met summer. Most of the thunder, lightning and heavy rain came from 4 to 5 this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually end today, generally from northwest to southeast, followed by partial clearing in many locations. A few storms today may be strong, mainly south/east of the I-69 corridor, with isolated damaging gusts possible. Widespread clearing is expected tonight, with dry weather and abundant sunshine for Monday.
SPC Outlook
Remnant convective cloud cover and at least some precipitation may overspread much of the region during the day, initially inhibiting or slowing boundary-layer destabilization. However, in the wake of this activity, and generally aligned with the southwesterly to westerly jet streak (probably including 40-50+ kt speeds in the 850-700 mb layer), a corridor of substantive boundary-layer destabilization seems likely across the lower Great Lakes vicinity into St. Lawrence Valley, in response to low-level moistening and insolation. This may include mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg, with higher values west-southwestward ahead of the front into a weakening flow regime across parts of the Ohio Valley by late this afternoon. In response to the destabilization, and forcing for ascent ahead of the larger-scale mid-level troughing, thunderstorms may initiate along and ahead of the lake breezes, where strong deep-layer shear and sizable, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may become conducive to isolated supercells with the potential to produce tornadoes. Other storms are expected to form closer to the front across parts of southeastern Ontario (and into the Ohio Valley), with activity as whole tending to growing upscale, with the primary severe hazard transitioning to mainly potentially damaging wind gusts, before weakening by late evening while spreading east-southeastward.
Forecast Discussion
...Severe Weather and Heavy rain threats Today... Circulation across the CONUS features a persistent subtropical ridge across much of the central and eastern U.S. with troughing across central and eastern Canada gradually amplifying with tow main shortwaves troughs bringing some much needed rain across the Great Lakes. The first batch of rain is currently moving through. So far, despite high rainfall rates, the convective elements have been moving at a decent clip and training of higher reflectivities has so far not happened. Therefore the threat of flooding has not materialized but another MCS across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois has yet to arrive so we will have to monitor hydro trends through the morning. Given current radar trends and short range model forecasts, the back edge of the convection will be clearing western zones this morning and eastern zones this afternoon. The severe threat may be mitigated this morning by the stabilizing effect of previous convection, but some airmass recovery is possible during the afternoon across the southeast per model soundings showing 1500 j/kg CAPE and more than 50 knots of deep layer shear across that area. The storms should finally be east of our forecast area by around 8 pm. Severe weather potential will have to be closely monitored through the day. ,,,Next chance of rain on Tuesday Night and Wednesday... After a couple days of fair weather under shortwave ridging, the next shortwave trough brings falling heights and the chance of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. Despite 40 knots of deep layer shear in forecast model soundings, severe threat may be lowered by instability being limited by late night arrival of the storms. Fair and cooler weather after Wednesday as the upper ridge builds into the western CONUS and is replaced by upper troughing across the Great Lakes.
Check out the high temp forecast for GR tomorrow! High in the low 70’s and the normal is about 83 degrees! Double digit below normal! What a summer!
Well it’s about time after getting one day after another with heat and humidity. We’ve had more than enough 90’s for this year already.
The sun is shining here now. It really is nice out. We were out deadheading some of our flowers. Anyone know how to get rid of these Japanese beetles? I don’t want to have all my plants look fried like they did one other time.
Get ready for next week = below normal temps, low dew points, below normal rainfall and above normal sunshine! What a summer, no heat waves and now a week of below normal temps in July! It could not be better! Incredible summer! Wow, just wow!
Sounds good to me. I am all for less humidity.
ADA – 1/2 inch of rain.
Quite a low total! I am up to a storm total of 1.75 inches! Incredible!
Also to note we got exactly 2” of rain
We got winds about 60mph last night. We have quite a bit of wind damage around here. We lost a maple tree limb in our backyard. Our power did click back on but was out the entire night. The thunder and lightning in the second round was LOUD.
We did get a 60 mph gust with that first line last night. Other than that, lots of lightning and welcomed rain
1.65 inches of rain so far and still have power! Incredible!