Bringing Science to Weather Forecasting
Cleveland Abbe gambled when he joined U.S. Army’s new weather service in 1871. But his tireless efforts to improve the organization and advance theoretical meteorology built the foundation of what was to later become NOAA’s National Weather Service.
Cleveland Abbe (1838-1916) was already established as an astronomer and meteorologist when the federal government formed a brand new weather service in 1870 under the U.S. Army Signal Corps. On January 3, 1871, Abbe took a risk and joined the fledgling organization as its first chief scientist. This move led him into an uncertain future, considering that various government weather services had faltered in the past. However, prior to joining, Abbe had taken charge of the Cincinnati Observatory and established a private weather service to produce weather forecasts, not simply to repeat observations or draw static maps of the previous day’s weather. According to Thomas Corwin Mendenhall, seventh superintendent of the Coast and Geodetic Survey, Abbe’s “success led to an act of Congress providing for the utilization of the Signal Corps of the Army for the organization of a general weather service.” Brigadier General William B. Hazen later shared a similar high opinion of Abbe when he testified to Congress in 1886 that to Abbe “we are indebted for the very existence of the Weather Bureau.”
When he began his career with the Signal Corps, Abbe was the only individual in the country with any practical experience in weather forecasting based on scientific principles. Among his first tasks were setting up a systematic observing system, developing criteria and a system for training new personnel, and directing the scientific activities of the new bureau. Until he was able to train forecasters, Abbe was the sole source of forecasts, or as he called them “probabilities.” He soon became known as “Old Probabilities” or “Old Prob,” a nickname that stuck with him for the rest of his life.
Advancing a Larger Vision
But Abbe had a larger vision than merely forecasting the weather. From the outset he focused on two major scientific goals–optimizing the weather service and studying and advocating theoretical meteorology. During the formative years of the weather service, he fostered, and in some respects embodied, the essential link between developing the institution and advancing meteorological theory. In doing this, he was among the first to recognize the interdependency of the three dimensions of meteorology–forecasting, climatology, and physical theory.
Developing the Institution: Training Meteorologists
One of Abbe’s goals was recruiting a cadre of weather observers as a foundation for the Weather Service. Here in 1926, and long before computer models, scientists produce forecasts by hand.
To advance the institution, Abbe developed a special enlistment system of young men, mostly college graduates, with the rank of sergeant in the Signal Corps. These individuals were exempt from most of the duties of the enlisted ranks of the Army and were specifically trained as observers. Most transferred from the Army to the newly named Weather Bureau when Congress moved it into the Department of Agriculture in 1891. They remained the nucleus of meteorologists at major forecast offices for many years.
Advancing Theoretical Meteorology: Establishing the “Study Room”
Cleveland Abbe began advancing theoretical meteorology in the Weather Service by establishing the “Study Room” and a supplementary laboratory in which civilian scientists investigated meteorological problems. Among the scientists recruited by Abbe for this work were William Ferrel of the Coast and Geodetic Survey, Charles Marvin who went on to become chief of the Weather Bureau for over thirty years (1913-1934), and Thomas Corwin Mendenhall, a well-known physicist, who inaugurated work to build the laboratory. Mendenhall went on to become the head of the Coast and Geodetic Survey from 1891 to 1895.
Today, NOAA’s Weather Service uses many advanced technologies, like this Doppler weather radar, to make over 700,000 weather forecasts annually–a significant advance from the days when Cleveland “Old Prob” Abbe was its lone forecaster.
Abbe also began a system to monitor the effectiveness of forecasts; began the Library of the Weather Service; was instrumental in establishing standard time throughout the United States, a necessity for taking simultaneous weather observations; founded the Monthly Weather Review in 1872; and translated articles from the foreign science journals, particularly those related to dynamic meteorology. He was one of the pioneers of theoretical dynamic meteorology.
Bearing Up Under Scrutiny
In spite of these accomplishments, other government officials scrutinized Abbe intensely. In 1893, he was criticized for doing nothing to earn his pay of $4,500 per year, was demoted, and given a pay cut! This failed to discourage him, as he continued espousing the need for a scientific foundation for the Weather Service. In 1901 he published one of his greatest papers, “The Physical Basis of Long Range Weather Forecasting.” He continued working for the Weather Bureau until becoming too sick to continue in 1915. During his career, he was known for his congeniality, his willingness to instruct, and his piercing inquiries that continually challenged the intellect of his colleagues. Cleveland Abbe, more than anyone individual, built the foundation of NOAA’s modern National Weather Service.
I was outside last night when the wind picked up and it began to rain – we had a few flashes of lightning to go with it.
I think my wife and I are just going to plan a nice week long trip in the UP in August just to get away! Be by ourselves far away from civilization and decompress! I am sure Rocky and INDY would like a nice cool trip in the UP in late summer too!
Mi will get back to work in phases and this very well may begin in May for certain business! We need a lot more testing and social tracing and antibody testing and we need the spread of the virus be a lot lower than the current levels before everyone is able to get back to work! The main objective right now needs to be saving lives! period! End of story!
Ok, now we totally agree! See, it was that easy! I’m not going to be careless and neither is my wife. We take our precautions and I’m certainly not going to be going to large gatherings! I’m just concerned about the company I work for and my fellow coworkers. That is all. I get tired of people politicizing COVID and I see a lot of that all over the internet. We all have a common goal, keep people alive and get back to work in a proper, safe manner.
Now you are talking ANDY!
Amen Rocky! We both want the same thing! Happy, healthy American Citizens! Sorry to go in the gutter earlier, it just feels so helpless sometimes. It is a very scary time for our people. I just pray for the best possible outcome with all of this and we come out stronger and closer together.
I appreciate your comment!
Thanks Rocky!! Glad we could settle this out, I appreciate your thinking too!
I definitely don’t want to argue on Michael’s Blog! Both you and I have been around since the early stages of Bills Blog. I come here for a getaway from the COVID sadness, I don’t want to get down in the dregs of politics, it just tears people apart and no one wins.
6 feet apart or 6 feet under! Feel free to male your choice!
That’s the thing you don’t get Rocky. My wife and have been following the guidelines! We both wear N95 masks on our one trip a week to the grocery store. Otherwise we are in our house. We stay at least 6 feet from people in the stores. So we are actually doing our part! Not all of us are just out there being careless. We just want to get back to work sensibly. We can’t wait months for that to happen though.
Also, I never said to just flush all of the safety measures down the toilet and go back to how things were prior to January. At some point, we have to get back to work with masks, social distancing or whatever guidelines are required, otherwise there won’t be a tax base to support people staying home!
Thank God for Whitmer! She is one of the best governors in our great country! Keep it up!
Don’t worry everyone, covid 19 has only killed 2700 fellow MI citizens and well over 40,000 in USA! These numbers continue to go up and would have been far worse without the stay at home orders! Thanks God for Whitmer and the other smart and thoughtful governors! Keep up the good work and continue the the stay at home orders as long as necessary!
Get ready Michiganders! This is what is coming to you in the near future and that will just be the beginning of the suffering with WHitler running the state! At least Rocky will be happy!
https://money.cnn.com/2009/07/17/news/economy/state_unemployment_report/
Hey ANDY, feel free to go back to work anytime you want to and head down to GR and socialize with as many people as you want and go ahead have plan a large party at your house while you are at it!
https://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/2020/04/kent-county-still-weeks-away-from-peak-of-coronavirus-pandemic.html
So what are you going to do for money when The Midwest becomes a 3rd world territory??
It’s alright the Working People will go back to work and take care of the scared and lazy like we always have to.
Here are some real facts about Sweden! They are a death trap!
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-sweden-and-norway-handled-coronavirus-differently-2020-4
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/swedish-coronavirus-no-lockdown-model-proves-lethal-by-hans-bergstrom-2020-04
Thank God we have a very smart, thoughtful and responsible Governor right now! Keep up the great work Whitmer! 6 feet apart or 6 feet under!
You’re just one of those libs that hopes for many American deaths, a Great Depression and 75 percent unemployment, just so Trump is voted out of office! Sad that you hope for the torment of hundreds of millions of Americans, just because you think Trump is a big meanie! You can see it with the disrespectful, mocking, petty reporters at each White House briefing everyday. That is what most libs are secretly hoping for!
If I have to move south back to Texas by my in-laws to provide for my family, I’ll definitely do it! Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE Michigan, and I love my job, but more and more businesses are going under by the day here. You saw how badly Michigan suffered in 2007 thru 2010 with people fleeing state under Granholm, that could be a drop in the bucket compared to what is going to happen if Whitmer gets her way and drags this home imprisonment on for months!
The Governor has painted herself into a box here- she wants to be VP, she wants to fight with the President, and she enacted this draconian policies initially. To pull back now would be the smart thing to do, but she won’t, because her pride and partisanship is on the line. She is going to dig in, double-down, and hope that partisanship and fear wins her enough of a plurality in the next election to win. And most of Michigan will suffer for this. Pride is a dangerous vice, and that vice is going to lead to a lot of… Read more »
Containment for this virus was only possible at its point of origin in China and it would appear the CCP knowingly allowed it to be transmitted globally. Neither Trump nor Whitmer could do anything about it. No virus that has a similar transmission methodology to this one has ever been successfully contained. Do the research. The area under the so called flattened curve represents either infection or mortality, but flattened or not, they are the same. If 5,000 people are going to die, then 5,000 people are going to die, short term or long term. The hospitals in Michigan have… Read more »
It’s interesting that Sweden with virtually no COVID rules seems to be on the down slope with their infections.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Here is an interesting web site for coved 19 data! This is not an OPINION, these are facts! This map shows where the daily increases in cases is the highest! It looks like Georgia is one of the worst states in the country! Incredible!
https://covid19.topos.com/
You will need to use the drop down arrow and chose “% daily change”
MV had posted this site way back in March but it too is a good site to keep tract. To get the USA total by state click on the USA and it will bring up the totals by state and it gives the sources on the far right hand.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#news
Slim
+1
If anyone it interested it looks like there is a place on 28th street near the Woodland mall looking for about 100 people to assemble face masks. it pays $13 a hour and it is from 6:30 to 4 PM Monday thru Friday. I do not know how this would affect your unemployment. It looks like the temp locations are staffing this job.
Slim
How is everyones allergies doing? I am already having moderate symptoms, but I tend to get very bad allergies.
It just seems strange given the fact that it is nearly snowing out.
No allergy problems for me!
Slim are we dealing with to different Rocky’s on here I noticed to different pictures by there names or am I seeing things? if that’s the case they both agree with a lot of things together lol….INDY
I see that. I did not notice that before.
Slim
Indy, looks like Rocky is just using two different devices.
Slim
Currently 34* degrees out at thee YARDofBRICKS NE of GR im thinking wind-chills in the 20″s now will we even see 40* degrees today ? INDY
I have moved this to the top and hope it can put this to rest for today. As for the idea of “warm” weather will make the virus go away. Well there are widespread outbreaks in Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Brazil and closer to home Florida. So sunshine and warm temperatures may not be the answer. But that said this is a weather site and not a political site and there is not way that anyone is going to change anyone’s opinion just like Rocky and Indy will not change Mookie’s opinion on the weather. So while all opinions are welcome… Read more »
Rock on Slim! Keep the good work!
It looks like the high of 42 for today may have been reached just after midnight. If that holds that would place today as the 3rd coldest maximum for any April 21st in Grand Rapids history. Even if it makes it to 45 later today that would still be the 5th coldest maximum. This will be the 3rd day this month that Grand Rapids has had a high in the top 10 coldest maximums for a date this April.
Slim
Brrr… temp is 36, we had .15 of an inchof rain overnight
The sun is now out here with a more March like temperature of 37. Today will be the 9th day in a row of below average temperatures With a current departure of -2.6° April will be the 1st below average month here at Grand Rapids since last November. The big question is will this be the start of a long term cool spell?
Slim
Yes
Right now the weather does not seem that important. I am very thankful that I do not live in GA right now! This governors decisions are based on ignorance and politics not scientific data! He has made a decision to kill thousands of his states citizens! Ignorant and Disgraceful!
Two things to look for is the GA, FL and SC and that are the number of test given (the state health departments may be told how many to test) the number of new cases and of course the number of deaths. Call it a odd scientific experiment. But hey if you want anyone can go to Atlanta next week and go out for dinner. We shall see.
Slim
I would not go out in public in Atlanta if you paid me a million dollars! The ignorance and recklessness of this governor is unconscionable! Hopefully the Georgia citizens are smart enough to still follow stay at home and distancing measures!
Also the state of FL is totally mis-managed and messed up! People can not even file unemployment because of the states total incompetence! They are making people file paper claims while the governor is making wrestling an essential service! This is so ridiculous you could not even make it up!
It’s ok Rocky, just stay locked in your house for eternity. Most likely there will not be a vaccine, because there really haven’t been any Coronavirus vaccines that have worked in the past, for other Corona outbreaks.
I was just telling my wife last night this virus has been around a lot longer then we know I truly believe it rushed into politics as fast as it’s spread and now we are paying the price across America… Especially in states like ours some of the rules are ridiculous and guess what news flash lots of michaganders are not following them I see if everyday before work during work and going home from work ….Our state of Michigan economy is wrecked now because some of the idiotic rules….just my opinion..INDY
Amen INDY!! At some point, we have to get back to work with masks, social distancing or whatever, otherwise there won’t be a tax base to support people staying home!
I agree…Let’s hope the warm weather tames the virus and our government lol…INDY
Agreed!
As for the idea of “warm” weather will make the virus go away. Well there are widespread outbreaks in Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Brazil and closer to home Florida. So sunshine and warm temperatures may not be the answer. But that said this is a weather site and not a political site and there is not way that anyone is going to change anyone’s opinion just like Rocky and Indy will not change Mookie’s opinion on the weather. So while all opinions are welcome just remember just because some one dose not have the same opinion that you have dose NOT… Read more »
I usually keep to myself on these comments but I truly believe like a big storm coming there comes a lot hype yes INDY’s gets hype over a big storm and I love it but our government is over hype on this virus especially in Michigan probably a learning lesson maybe? Come May 1st I look for a lot of these hype rules I call them to be lifted let’s only hope..By the way last year on this date we hit 72* degrees on this date not this year…INDY
Michigan economy? The economy of whole world in now in the same boat! While some want to down play this virus I have to wonder if there is something that the governments of the world are NOT telling us about this virus. Just think why any country would shut down their economies for a virus? But look what is happening it is not just Michigan economy that is in a so called “stay at home” mode, most of the worlds countries are in the so call “lock down” So a better question to ask is WHY????? As I said I… Read more »
I hear you slim! I completely agree that high risk people should continue sheltering in place. But able bodied, healthy people should be able to go back to work. With proper safety measures in place at your place of business.
Yes Michigan cuz that’s where I live..INDY
No Indy COVID-19 has done this! Get real!
Ignorant comment.
Hard to imagine trying to establish a national weather network at a time when our pioneers were still trying to settle the west. No modern means of communication, aside from telegraph (?)… Thanks Michael:)
Temps in the 40’s wind chills in the 20’s we are so accelerating right in the summer baby …lol..INDY
More like high temps in the upper 30’s today! Incredible April cold and a very cold month!
We had serious wind overnight. I had to pick up trash from our trash can out by the road. Neighbor’s patio furniture is in our backyard. Our trampoline blew next door and damaged the neighbor’s fence (darn it).
Gust of 58 out at thee YARDofBRICKS NE of GR around 940pm last night… Healthy cold front for April standards blew through ….INDY
Wood tv 8 Terry T’s morning forcast the blustery air will last into May seems just a little longer then the cool spring break theory only week in April lol…With the possibility of more snow overnight is it still February outside?? Have a super Tuesday…INDY.
Thanks for the facts and that data clearly shows this month has been cold and the pattern is for below normal temps to continue for weeks!
I know Mookee with disagree but I have to wonder if this could be the start of a cool summer. Not saying it will but the set up could be hot in the SW and cool in the Great Lakes. We shall see.
Slim
I would be ok with that ..The heat can stay away …INDY