What summer was hotter 2012 or 1988. Both years were very hot by Michigan standards. At Grand Rapids, in 2012 the June mean was 70.8 the high for the month was 97 the low for the month was 46. There were 8 days with highs of 90 or better. There was 2.17” of rain fall. July 2012 had a mean of 79.2 the high for the month officially was 104 Here in MBY I had a high of 108 that would have tied the record high for Grand Rapids. The low for the month was just 60, there were 18 days with highs of 90 or better. There was 2.56” of rain fall. For August the mean was 70.8, the high for the month was 93 and the low was 48 There were 4 days of 90 or better and 3.34” of rain fall. As for 1988 the mean at Grand Rapids for June was 68.5 the highest reading was 98 the lowest was a cold 40 there were 10 days of highs of 90 or better. There was just 0.25” of rain for the whole month. For July the mean was 74.6, the highest reading was 100 the low for the month was a cool 46 There were 13 days of 90 or better. There was 3.69” of rain fall. For August the mean was 73.4 The highest reading was 98 and the lowest reading was a cool 46 there was 13 days of 90 or better and there was 3.04” of rain fall. A strong cold front brought heavy thunderstorms on the evening of August 17 and the rest of the month and September were cooler than average. For the summer season of June, July and August the mean for 2012 was 73.6 and 2012 had 30 days of 90 or better for the year there was 32 days of 90 or better. For 1988 the mean was 72.6 there were 36 days of 90 or better for the year there were 37 days of 90 or better. For the year 1988 has the most days of 90 or better with 2012 coming in at 3rd place and 1931 coming in at 2nd place. So along with 1931 both 1988 and 2012 were among the warmest summers in much of Michigan.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 2023
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 2023
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM (SUNDAY) WILL
BE ON THE SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE
REGION WITH THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR NW IN THE VERY BLOCKY UPPER AIR
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. WE ARE STILL POISED TO SEE A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS IN
FROM THE NE. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IS SUCH THAT IT IS HARD TO SEE
THE FRONT WITH THE GREAT LAKES HAVING A BIGGER EFFECT ON THE
PATTERN. IT CAN BE SEEN HOWEVER IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT LOOK TO TOUCH OF THE FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TODAY. IT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF THE AREAS OF
CONVERGENCE THAT RESULT MORE FROM THE FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE THE NE
FLOW WILL MEET UP WITH THE LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT, AND TOWARD I-94
WHERE SOME CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS DUE TO THE FLOW PATTERN OFF OF LAKES
HURON AND ERIE. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS THAT MODELS INDICATE ALSO WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS.
ML CAPES COULD RISE TO AS HIGH AS 1,000 J/KG IN THESE FAVORED AREAS,
WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN STOPPING A RISING PARCEL. THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES ONCE AGAIN WILL BE QUITE WEAK, LESS THAN 15 KNOTS, THAT WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY PULSE TYPES OF STORMS. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL IN
THE BETTER UPDRAFTS, AND SOME WIND GUSTS WITH AN INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS, AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE/MOVE OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 9-10 PM TONIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA, ALONG WITH SOME COOLER
AIR. 850 MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 16-17C THIS AFTERNOON, TO AROUND
14C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL STILL BE WARM, JUST NOT AS HOT AS THE
LAST FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY WITH
A VERY DRY AIR MASS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN.
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT JUN 3 2023
– SUCCESSIVE MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTS ENDS HEAT WAVE –
A DEEPENING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A SOUTHWARD
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS PAST WEEK TO RETROGRADE
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS A MOSTLY DRY
COLD FRONT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN MID TO LATE ON SATURDAY WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN BEHIND IT NOT ADVECTING INTO THE REGION UNTIL
SUNDAY. SO MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL INSTEAD OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HOWEVER, THE EC/GEFS IS STILL IN FAIR CONSENSUS THAT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CONTINUALLY PUSHED WESTWARD, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. SO BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE INSTABILITY CREATED BY THE BOUNDARY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD
SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE MID LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT, HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A
LACK OF MOISTURE. GIVEN THIS DICHOTOMY HAVE LEFT LOW POPS.
Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 90. East northeast wind 6 to 13 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. East northeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 82. East northeast wind around 11 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. East northeast wind 5 to 9 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Light west southwest wind becoming northwest 8 to 13 mph in the morning.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Sunny, with a high near 81
We took a day trip to Bay City yesterday and it was much cooler there with a NE wind off of Saginaw Bay the temperatures were only in the upper 70’s on the north side of town and in the low 80’s on the south side of town.