The blocking pattern in the U.S. and Canada continues to bring warm dry weather to Michigan with no breaking down of these systems anytime soon. In my humble opinion, it will take a tropical depression in the eastern Pacific or Western Atlantic to get this to move out of the area. In the past 30 days, we have seen only a half inch of rain in Otsego.
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon- Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton- Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson- 333 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. * Winds...East/Northeast 10 to 20 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 15 to 20 percent. * Temperatures...In the mid 80s. * Impacts...burn restrictions are likely in effect. For more information on burn restrictions...
U.S.A and Global Events for June 4th:
1825: A severe storm of tropical origin swept up the Atlantic Coast during the first week of June 1825 with reports of significant damage from Florida to New York City. Shipping logs told of a disturbance at Santo Domingo on May 28th and Cuba on June 1st. Gales were reported at St. Augustine, Florida on the 2nd. The Norfolk and Portsmouth Herald reported “undiminished violence” from the gale force winds for 27 hours, ending on June 4th. The effect of the storm reached well inland. Washington had cold, heavy rain all day on the 4th with high winds laying the crops in the vicinity. The wind also tore up trees by the roots in front of the State House in Philadelphia. This storm impacted the New Jersey Coast and the Long Island area as well with high winds and a two-foot storm surge. A Columbian frigate was driven ashore as were many smaller boats. The largest loss of life occurred along the Long Island shore when a schooner capsized. The entire crew of seven was lost.
1877: A tornado of estimated F4 intensity touched down just west of Mt. Carmel, Illinois, and moved east-northeast, devastating the town. 20 businesses and 100 homes were damaged or destroyed. At least 16 people and as many as 30 were killed, with 100 others injured.
Grand Rapids Forecast6 4 grr
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 One would think that the dry weather would generally mean no concerns. That is definitely not the case with the extreme fire danger, and mesoscale winds over the nearshore. More details about those two items can be found in the Fire Weather and marine sections respectively. Not to mention the smoke drifting over the area from the wildfires in Quebec. We will see even drier air funnel over the area through today as the low level flow holds in from the NE, and we see mostly sunny skies promoting deep mixing. This flow is expected to take the current batch of wildfire smoke from Quebec out of the area this morning. It could bring in additional smoke later today based on the HRRR Smoke modeling. We will see another front drop through the area on Monday afternoon and evening. The chances of rain with this front are nearly zero for our area. The front will have no moisture to work with since the atmosphere will be starting out very dry, and no moisture to be tapped as it drops through. In addition, there is a weak short wave diving south before the sfc front gets here. So that scenario is not favorable for any rain. We are looking at likely just some high based clouds moving through, and a few sprinkles possible. Winds will likely pick up some with the gradient tightening near the low due to diurnal pressure patterns of the land/lake interface. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 The upcoming week will be dominated by a large upper level low situated off eastern Canada. The models are in fair consensus on the strength and timing and location of this low. What this will mean is cooler, nearer to normal, temperatures. However, Michigan will be firmly entrenched in a northeasterly to northerly flow with a strong pressure gradient over the Great Lakes. As the large upper level low cycles, it will bring short to long wave troughs across the region. However this will be accompanied by dry air. The near normal temperatures throughout the week will be offset by low RH`s and increased winds which will ramp up fire weather danger through the week. Today`s red flag warning is only a harbinger to the conditions ahead. RH`s will struggle to get out of the 20s Tuesday onward. The before mentioned gradient will allow for gusty winds of 15 to 20 mph possible from Tuesday into next weekend. The next respite from the dry and windy conditions will be the potential of precipitation next weekend as a long wave through moves over top a high pressure system situated over the northern plains and treks southeast across the Great Lakes.