The blocking pattern in the U.S. and Canada continues to bring warm dry weather to Michigan with no breaking down of these systems anytime soon. In my humble opinion, it will take a tropical depression in the eastern Pacific or Western Atlantic to get this to move out of the area. In the past 30 days, we have seen only a half inch of rain in Otsego.
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon- Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton- Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson- 333 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. * Winds...East/Northeast 10 to 20 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 15 to 20 percent. * Temperatures...In the mid 80s. * Impacts...burn restrictions are likely in effect. For more information on burn restrictions...
U.S.A and Global Events for June 4th:
1825: A severe storm of tropical origin swept up the Atlantic Coast during the first week of June 1825 with reports of significant damage from Florida to New York City. Shipping logs told of a disturbance at Santo Domingo on May 28th and Cuba on June 1st. Gales were reported at St. Augustine, Florida on the 2nd. The Norfolk and Portsmouth Herald reported “undiminished violence” from the gale force winds for 27 hours, ending on June 4th. The effect of the storm reached well inland. Washington had cold, heavy rain all day on the 4th with high winds laying the crops in the vicinity. The wind also tore up trees by the roots in front of the State House in Philadelphia. This storm impacted the New Jersey Coast and the Long Island area as well with high winds and a two-foot storm surge. A Columbian frigate was driven ashore as were many smaller boats. The largest loss of life occurred along the Long Island shore when a schooner capsized. The entire crew of seven was lost.
1877: A tornado of estimated F4 intensity touched down just west of Mt. Carmel, Illinois, and moved east-northeast, devastating the town. 20 businesses and 100 homes were damaged or destroyed. At least 16 people and as many as 30 were killed, with 100 others injured.
Grand Rapids Forecast
6 4 grrForecast Discussion
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 One would think that the dry weather would generally mean no concerns. That is definitely not the case with the extreme fire danger, and mesoscale winds over the nearshore. More details about those two items can be found in the Fire Weather and marine sections respectively. Not to mention the smoke drifting over the area from the wildfires in Quebec. We will see even drier air funnel over the area through today as the low level flow holds in from the NE, and we see mostly sunny skies promoting deep mixing. This flow is expected to take the current batch of wildfire smoke from Quebec out of the area this morning. It could bring in additional smoke later today based on the HRRR Smoke modeling. We will see another front drop through the area on Monday afternoon and evening. The chances of rain with this front are nearly zero for our area. The front will have no moisture to work with since the atmosphere will be starting out very dry, and no moisture to be tapped as it drops through. In addition, there is a weak short wave diving south before the sfc front gets here. So that scenario is not favorable for any rain. We are looking at likely just some high based clouds moving through, and a few sprinkles possible. Winds will likely pick up some with the gradient tightening near the low due to diurnal pressure patterns of the land/lake interface. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023 The upcoming week will be dominated by a large upper level low situated off eastern Canada. The models are in fair consensus on the strength and timing and location of this low. What this will mean is cooler, nearer to normal, temperatures. However, Michigan will be firmly entrenched in a northeasterly to northerly flow with a strong pressure gradient over the Great Lakes. As the large upper level low cycles, it will bring short to long wave troughs across the region. However this will be accompanied by dry air. The near normal temperatures throughout the week will be offset by low RH`s and increased winds which will ramp up fire weather danger through the week. Today`s red flag warning is only a harbinger to the conditions ahead. RH`s will struggle to get out of the 20s Tuesday onward. The before mentioned gradient will allow for gusty winds of 15 to 20 mph possible from Tuesday into next weekend. The next respite from the dry and windy conditions will be the potential of precipitation next weekend as a long wave through moves over top a high pressure system situated over the northern plains and treks southeast across the Great Lakes.
No heat waves in sight!!!
We just had one. I would hope we don’t have another one 2 days later.
In reading the dissuasion one would think that there was going to be a good chance of rain with thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. Well the forecast is for a 20 to 30% chance so not much in the way of rain for the next week. But it looks to be cool and dry.
Slim
It appears we are in a dry trend. Not just this spring/summer, but many summers the past 3-4 years. Certainly we have had more dry summers then wet summers lately. I don’t like it. Haha.
It has been a while since we have a dry year/summer. At Grand Rapids the driest summer (June, July, August) was in 1930 with 3.62″ of rain fall. Other dry summers were 1984 with 4.22″ 1962 with 4.33″ 1898 with 4.45″ most recent summers have had at least one month with a lot of rain fall last year it was August. In 201 it was June, In 2020 July, in 2019 all summer months were wetter than average. in 2018 it was August. 2017 was the driest of the more recent years but that summer had 7.72″ of rain fall.… Read more »
For the whole year the driest years at Grand Rapids are 1930 with 20.93″. 1962 with 22.17″ 1944 with 23.46″ 1910 with 23.53″
Slim
Last July 12 2022 my area was in a drought. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/maps/maparchive.aspx
And in 2021 June 29 map shows a drought again. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/maps/maparchive.aspx
So while the summer as a whole may approach “normal”, the last two years drought has had significant impacts during the growing season (at least for me).
So I should amend my original statement and not say dry summer pattern, rather there have been droughts in central Michigan during the past few summers.
While yes there has been some slight to at times moderate drought conditions (by Michigan standards) I do not believe there has been a “major” drought in the last several years. I am sure that in 1930 it was much worse than anything in the last few years and even in 1988 it was much worse than in the recent past. Now if this keeps up for a while we will become in a more severe drought than in 2021 or 2022. We shall see.
Slim
Summers lately have been getting more humid, I’ve definitely noticed that. I’ve been enjoying the recent “dry” air (not the drought, of course)
Its beautiful outside no heat no humidity and we have a breeze on going the perfect June day out at thee YARDofBRICKS the sprites are going down nice sitting about 76 degrees beautiful outside getting my grill ready for some good burgers this afternoon life is good out in the land of Northview enjoy MV’s best …INDY
No one should be having a campfire in this weather. Burn bans should be in place throughout a lot of the state. We just had a small grass fire on I-96 here at the Portland exit. Probably from a cigarette.
From Michigan DNR:
“The Wilderness Trail Fire in Crawford County is currently around 2,400 acres in size and 85% contained. Fire crews worked throughout the night to battle the fire, which started from a campfire on private property.”
Impressive stats on the heat wave for so early in the year. As Slim posted, most 90 degree days in a row since the 1930’s, that’s almost 100 years ago! We had a bonfire party scheduled for tonight but decided to cancel it with all the fire warnings and bans. Don’t want to be responsible for another out of control fire.
So long 90’s the rest of June looks comfortable we will take it!! Looks like next week we could be seeing some rain as we maybe getting into a litte wetter pattern around the great lakes that would be great enjoy nice coolet weather…INDY
Yep, according to the CPC most of June could be cooler than average. And there could be some much needed rain later on. All in all this “heat wave” has not been all that bad. With the low dew points it has felt cooler it would have if it was humid.
Slim
That all sounds AWESOME! Bring it! I love cool summers!!!
For now it appears the impressive early season heatwave has come to a close. 5 days in a row Grand Rapids hit 90 which is very impressive for this time of the year.
Storm team 8 posted a graphic with stretches of time with less than 0.05” of rainfall and we rank 2nd at 26 days. The longest was in 1979 at 33 days so if it goes another week with no rain we could claim the top spot this year.
It is very rare for it to be this dry here in Michigan. That dry spell in 1979 started at he end of August and in that September only a trace of rain fell all month. That is the driest month in recorded history at Grand Rapids.
Slim
Pretty heavy layer of smoke out there right now. Looks like solid cloud cover. It sure is dry in Canada too apparently
Sitting on the back deck enjoying my coffee. Beautiful morning. Blue skies here for the moment. I can see smoky skies off to the W/NW and to the E.
The moon was a deep orange orb last bright. Really cool.
Very heavy haze in in just NW of Grand Rapids. The sun is out the haze is blocking most of it. Looks almost cloudy. There is a cool breeze here with a current temperature of 62.
Slim
We could see something in treetops last night. We went out to see that beautiful moon!!! Of course tried to take a few pix. Lol
The so called heat wave with low dew points is over and no heat waves are in sight! The persistent near to below normal temp pattern will return! Incredible! Rock and Roll!!!!
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 90/62 there was no rain fall the sun was out 72% of the time. There were 11 CDD’s and 0 HDD’s The overnight low here in MBY so far today is 58 and there is a lot of smoke so it looks cloudy. For today the average H/L is now 76/55 the record high of 93 was set in 1899 and 1925 the record low of 32 was set in 1945 there will be the last time the at Grand Rapids the low has reached 32 or less until September 3rd It… Read more »
In the last 27 days there has only been 0.04″ of rain at Grand Rapids. 0.06″ at Fremont, 0.10″ at Ionia, 0.11″ at Muskegon, 0.17″ at Lansing and 0.18″ at Holland. And there is not much if any chance of rain in the next week. This is probably the driest May into the start of June in our area in recorded history.
Slim
I think that is a fair assumption. Each morning I wake hoping to see rain in the forecast. Each morning I am disappointed.
I have thought the same thing. I haven’t put my garden in (I know late), but then I think boy I would have to drag the hose out there … Will get it in just have some late blooming stuff
It is now official that this heat wave has reached 5 days in a row of 90 or better at Grand Rapids, Muskegon, and Kalamazoo. At Holland there have been 4 days in a row of 90 or better At Lansing 4 out of the last 5 have reached 90 or better. At Detroit it is 1 out of 5, At Saginaw it is 2 out of 5 and at Flint they have not officially reached 90 yet in 2023. This is now the warmest end of May and start of June at Grand Rapids since 1934.
Slim