Temperatures will range from lower to mid-30s today. Snow showers, a few of which could be locally heavy, will affect locations mainly between the Lake Michigan shore and US-131. A couple of brief bursts of snow could also make their way toward US-127 late in the day.
We have a Winter Weather Advisory for the lakeshore counties today through 4 am tomorrow:
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY…
* WHAT…Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
* WHERE…Allegan, Muskegon Ottawa, and Van Buren counties.
* WHEN…Until 4 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
We have had 5.5 inches of snow this week in Otsego which brings us up to 49.5 inches since November 1st compared to the 31 inches we had last winter at this time.
Grand Rapids Forecast1 26 grr
Lansing Forecast1 26 lan
Kalamazoo Forecast1 26 kzo
-- Lake-effect snow today -- KGRR radar reflectivity, along with recent surface observations, continue to indicate pockets of light snow occuring as of 3 AM Thu. This activity is likely being maintained by weak low-level convergence amid broad, cyclonically curved low-level flow and persistent low-level moisture. Any accumulation with this activity early this morning will be very light, but may still contribute to slippery road conditions. Even where snow is not occurring, icy patches are possible on roads this morning. Attention then turns to the lake-effect snow activity that is already evident on KGRR radar. 850-mb temperatures at/below -8C will maintain sufficiently steep low-level lapse rates for continued lake-effect activity today. Meanwhile, NNW boundary- layer flow early this morning will gradually back NW in the coming hours, allowing activity to come ashore starting later this morning. Within this lake-effect activity today, model profiles suggest that surface-based parcels may achieve impressive equilibrium- level heights (near 8 kft)--well into the dendritic growth zone (the -12 to -18C layer). Additionally, deep background moisture will be present within/above the convective cloud layer. This environment will favor efficient snow production in the heaviest convective elements, although some degree of riming is possible. Additionally, the long low-level fetch length and weak cloud- layer shear may allow organization of a broken, quasi-dominant band, and HRRR guidance suggests that one or several compact mesolow features may develop along this band axis. With this update, Muskegon and Ottawa counties will be added to the Winter Weather Advisory. Snowfall accumulations within the advisory area (lakeshore counties) are generally expected to range from 1-4 inches through this evening, and marginal surface temps will allow some melting. However, within the heaviest snow showers, quick reductions in visibility and slippery road conditions are expected. -- Mainly synoptic snow on Fri; windy -- A midlevel shortwave trough and associated vort max--currently over northern Alberta--will continue southeastward through tonight, with an accompanying surface low reaching the vicinity of northern MN by 12z Fri. A brief period of lake-effect snow is possible early Fri morning as southwesterly boundary-layer flow strengthens. Thereafter, a period of steady synoptic snow is likely from Fri morning into the afternoon, driven by strong QG forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Light accumulations (generally 1- 3") look plausible across much of the forecast area. Additionally, strong southwest winds will develop on Friday, with growing confidence in gusts of 40-50 mph, particularly along the lakeshore from Muskegon County northward. -- Additional synoptic snow on Sat into Sat night -- Models suggest that a west-east-oriented baroclinic zone will be situated over the region on Sat. Along this baroclinic zone, broad midlevel confluence and associated deformation will contribute to midlevel frontogenesis over the region on Sat into Sat night, as evident by 850-500-mb Q vectors oriented toward warmer air. This environment will favor precipitation production within mesoscale snowbands, and model guidance suggests that greatest snowfall accumulations (perhaps 3-6") may occur within a relatively narrow axis. Confidence is currently low regarding the positioning of this axis, but recent EPS precip exceedance probs suggest that a position somewhere between the I-94 and I-96 corridors is most likely. -- Mon and beyond -- EPS and GEFS means show broad agreement regarding the placement/evolution of large-scale height anomalies into midweek. The midlevel anticyclone currently over the NE Pacific (near 130W) is expected to retrogress somewhat and amplify, becoming established over the Gulf of Alaska on Fri-Sat. Downstream, subsequent midlevel height falls will occur over the Rockies on Sun-Mon, yielding a pronounced trough across the western CONUS into Tue. Split flow aloft will likely develop across much of North America on Sun, with the polar-front jet extending from the central Rockies into SE Canada, and a subtropical jet extending from the Baja Peninsula into the southern CONUS. This southwesterly, split-flow regime will foster somewhat active weather across the eastern CONUS next week. However, aside from these broad features, forecast uncertainty is rather large from Mon onward. Numerous EPS and GEFS members produce light snow over the forecast area on Mon in conjunction with a weak surface wave propagating along a baroclinic zone through the Ohio Valley. Ensemble guidance suggests additional chances of precip (likely as snow) during the Tue-Wed timeframe.