There are many models we look at when trying to predict long-range forecasts. To be sure there is no certainty they will play out as we wish to see them. There are a few of the models which are predicting a long-term cold shot from the polar vortex in late January into February. This begins with the warming in the Arctic stratosphere which pushes the cold air south (simply put). The GFS, GEFS, ECMWS, and GEM models are displaying similar model runs. This is more of a heads-up than anything else. Do with it as you will, it is my humble opinion that winter in the sense of cold and snow isn’t over yet. We will see if the CPC comes on board with this. Below is just a brief example of what the models are seeing.
Inland areas along/north of I-96 have the best chance of afternoon sunshine today. Dry weather will continue over the weekend with more opportunities for sun, especially on Saturday.
Grand Rapids Forecast7-Day Forecast 42.96°N 85.67°W 1 13 grr
Kalamazoo Forecast7-Day Forecast 42.29°N 85.58°W 1 13 kzo
Lansing Forecast7-Day Forecast 42.71°N 84.57°W 1 13 kzo
-- Likely clearing out tonight into Saturday -- The most interesting thing to happen for the next few days will be a rare opportunity for sunshine and clear nighttime skies this afternoon through Saturday. Upper-level ridging and broad scale mid- to-low-level subsidence should start opening up some holes in the clouds during the afternoon, starting in the interior northern part of the peninsula and spreading southward. Additionally, in north flow with dry-air advection, further drying is promoted (slightly) by downsloping flow off the higher terrain of the central/northern lower peninsula. One can hope anyway that all these factors combined do act to evaporate the clouds; and the chance does appear greater this time compared to last week Saturday. With any clearing over land tonight, radiational cooling should reinforce the nocturnal land breeze circulation and keep lake-effect clouds confined to the lake or near the shoreline. Low temperatures tonight may drop to near/below normal for the first time since Dec 27. With the expectation of clearing, lowered the min temp forecast tonight against NBM by going with a consensus of MOS guidance. Clouds may start to lean back in to the lakeshore areas Saturday as winds become more westerly. High altitude clouds will move in and likely filter out the sun on Sunday. -- Rain likely Monday to Monday night -- Winter will come back eventually, but not yet. Southerly warm-air advection resumes Sunday as the ridge translates to our east. The next synoptic trough will develop a Colorado Low Sunday which will track into Iowa on Monday. From there on its way to Michigan Monday night, the central surface pressure of the low should gradually increase while the low at 500 mb starts opening back up. We will be in a favorable part of the jet for lift (poleward exit region), though the core of the jet streak is quite flat/zonal and focused to our south. Ensembles of the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC are consistent with median rainfall amounts in the range of 0.2 to 0.4 inches, with tail-end solutions around 0.1 and 0.75 inches. There is a chance of a small amount of freezing rain at the onset Monday morning in the interior of central Michigan, near and north of US-10, owing to dry near-surface air initially in place that would enable web-bulb temperature to potentially dip below 32. -- Wintry precipitation possible Thursday to Thursday night -- The next low in the wave train for Thursday has some potential among the ensemble solution envelope to provide wintry precipitation with a reservoir of marginally sufficient cold air to pull in from the northern Midwest, but much will depend on the low`s track and poleward extent of of warm air advection on the front side of it. The spread in the QPF solutions not surprisingly is larger than with Monday`s system, so despite likely PoPs on Thursday, the range of potential impacts, or lack thereof, is still wide.