We have a classic spring day in store with warmer temperatures and increasing chances of rain. Temperatures will warm to the low 60s.
SPC Forecast
Day Two Outlook
NWS Forecast
Today
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. South southeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Tonight
Showers, mainly after 11 pm. Low around 47. Southeast wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. The chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible.
Tuesday
Showers before 2 pm, then showers likely, and possibly a thunderstorm between 2 pm and 5 pm, then showers after 5 pm. High near 59. Breezy, with a south-southeast wind of 21 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
Showers before 8 pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8 pm and 2 am. Low around 32. Southwest wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts are less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. West wind 10 to 14 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 29.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 44.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 28.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.
Friday Night
There is a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 35.
Saturday
There is a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.
Saturday Night
There is a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 34.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 50.
Weather History
1954: Heavy rain and high winds occur as a cold front moves through. Grand Rapids measures 2.82 inches of rain for their wettest March day on record. Flooding of streams is widespread and winds gusting over 70 mph cause roof damage and uproot trees.
1974: Grand Rapids falls to one below zero for its latest subzero reading on record.
On March 25, 1945, record high temperatures for the day were set simultaneously in Detroit (78 degrees), Flint (79 degrees), and Saginaw (80 degrees)!
Just two years later on March 25, 1947, a snowstorm dumped 13.3 inches on Saginaw. This was the 11th heaviest snowstorm in Saginaw history.
1901: More than 20 people were killed by an estimated F3 tornado that moved across parts of Birmingham, Alabama. The twister cut a 15-mile path from the south side of the city to Avondale and Irondale.
1935: Suffocating dust storms frequently occurred in southeast Colorado between the 12th and the 25th of the month. Six people died, and many livestock starved or suffocated. Up to six feet of dust covered the ground. Schools were closed, and tenants deserted many rural homes.
1992: Hailstones up to four inches in diameter resulted in more than $60 million in damage in Orlando, Florida. This storm is still the costliest Florida hailstorm on record.
Forecast Discussion
- Warm, Windy Today and Tomorrow Bottom line up front: Warm air advection and a strong low level jet will bring warmer temperatures through mid week with gusty winds today and tomorrow with upwards of 40 mph winds possible tonight and tomorrow. A wind advisory may be needed. Showers are expected Monday night through Tuesday with storms possible Tuesday afternoon with a marginal risk of severe Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds is the primary concern. The first half of the week will stand in great juxtaposition to the end of last week. Temperatures are around freezing this morning will rise to the low 60s this afternoon. Those Max Temps are 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Those warm temperatures this time of year comes at a cost. That cost is that they are accompanied by strong south easterly winds. A large upper level trough situated over the intermountain west will close off as it moves eastward. This barotropic system will displace the high pressure that has been over the Great Lakes the last few days. 850mb temperatures this afternoon and evening will be upwards of +7C. With that surge of temperature along with the tightening pressure gradient expect gusty winds today into tonight in the 30 to 35 mph range. Lower Michigan will clearly be in the warm sector as the warm front from this system will move through the U.P. and into Southern Canada. The low will continue its trek eastward into Tuesday. The winds throughout this system are strong with NAEFS anomalies into Tuesday will be +3 STD above normal. Expect a 50 to 60KT LLJ to move over the region tonight into tomorrow. The only limiting factor is whether or not those winds will be able to mix down, considering it is propagating through at night. The cold nighttime temperatures will create a decent inversion that any upper level forcing will need to overcome to allow the strong low to mid level winds to reach the SFC. The system is fairly barotropic with little to no directional shear. There is also decent PWAT and Specific Humidity through the system. NAEFS currently has +1 STD PWATS at 06Z Tuesday. If water loading is taken into account during frontal passage, that should overcome the inversion mixing down the 60KT jet to the SFC. That could translate to 45 mph winds or more during frontal passage. As stated previously gusts of that magnitude are of the advisory criteria, the question is for how long. After frontal passage the winds will remain strong aloft, However the inversion will be present until Tuesday afternoon. So periods of strong, possible damaging winds, will be possible during that timeframe. - Rain with possible storms Tuesday, some storms could be severe Bottom line up front: A frontal system with strong low level wind shear will move through the area Tuesday bringing showers and storms with damaging winds possible. The strong shear could make storms, Tuesday afternoon severe. For these concerns SPC has put most of the Southern half of Lower Michigan in a Marginal risk for severe storms. The strong, potent and closed low will continue its trek through midwest and make its way east through the Great Lakes Monday night through Tuesday. Warm air advection out ahead of the system will reduce any inversion that could limit the effectiveness of the strong winds aloft to reach the surface. The strong pressure gradient will bring a strong front through the region Tuesday. Latest CAMS show 0-6KM wind shear upwards of 80kts Tuesday morning. An initial band of showers will move through early Tuesday. Strong gusty possible damaging winds should accompany that line. Expect brief heavy downpours through overall QPF is only expected to be around a half an inch. Behind that will be the cold front that will also have a persistent jet with it. Though MEAN CAPE is low, with only 100 to 200 J/kg ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon. The CIN associated with this system is at best 20 J/kg. Given that the frontal rain band will move through between midnight and 9 AM Tuesday there will be copious amounts of moisture in the air. So with very little to overcome and given that temperatures on Tuesday are still expected to reach into the upper 50s there will be a warm, moist air mass that the incoming system will move into. Latest CAMS have simulated reflectivities showing a QLCS pattern which isn`t surprising given the strong shear vectors. Though there is very little CAPE there is a lot of research that shows High shear, low CAPE supercells are possible. Given that the 0-6KM shear will be 60kts during this time with 200 J/KG SPC covered Southern Lower Michigan in a marginal risk, with damaging winds as the main threats. Lower end tornadoes given the shear and given potential for a QLCS are not out of the question. - Cooling back down for Wednesday Stronger cold air advection persists Tuesday night into Wednesday, sending the temperatures back down to colder than normal levels. The low level thermal trough arrives Wednesday afternoon and lingers into Thursday. Ensemble max temperature suggest the CWA will stay in the 30s for Wednesday and upper 30s to mid 40s for Thursday, which is at least several degrees below normal. - Risk for some showers mainly over the weekend A southwesterly low level jet forms upstream Friday and reaches into the OH Valley on Saturday. Meanwhile aloft over the Great Lakes Region we will see a west northwest flow persisting. This pattern supports a strengthening baroclinic zone over the area Friday night into Saturday. Gulf moisture will be advecting northward and into the Lower Great Lakes Region with PWATs once again approaching an inch then. As this moisture interacts with strengthening frontal zone, scattered showers could form. The frontal zone is forecast to slip slowly south into Sunday, and that may focus the highest rain chances south of the CWA.
Get ready! Major April cold air is coming! WOW!
A decent amount of sun here this afternoon. It just clouded up. 65 degrees and our golf course has zero tee times available. Methinks everyone played hookey this afternoon.
Most courses here were not open because of snow still on the greens and the course!
Get ready for the cold front! Incredible!
Well it’s 60 today, another joke of a prediction!
Rocky (Rockford)
If you like nice warm Spring/Summer temps – forget about it! This week = winter temps and you will not see a temp as high as 60 degrees for at least the next 3 to 4 weeks! You will see plenty of highs in the 40’s to low 50’s with wind! Summer temps are many, many, many weeks away, so get used to cold and cool temps!
March 19, 2024 3:13 pm
Whoops! Nice catch
He’s got zero credibility!
A big cold front barreling through Tuesday afternoon and then temps down into the mid 20’s! I love it!
60’s with a chance of severe storms tomorrow? I love it!
It was another cold and windy day yesterday with the official H/L of 40/22 there was no rain/snowfall. The highest wind gust was 33MPH out of the E and the day had 24% of possible sunshine. The average H/L for today is 48/30 the record high of 77 was set in 1945 and the record low of -1 was set in 1974. The most rainfall of 2.85” fell in 1954 the most snow fall of 7.7” fell in 1930 the most snow on the ground was 15” in 1965. Last year the H/L was 37/32 there was 0.89” of rainfall… Read more »
Get ready for another big cold front! This after a multi day stretch of well below normal temps! WOW, just wow, WOW!!!
What a sunrise this morning! The east horizon was on fire. So pretty.
That was not the case here in my area the cloud cover is already here.
Slim