Yesterday we had scattered snow showers with a few peeks of the sun. The high was 29° and the low 17°. Today we will begin melting the snow we received as the temperatures begin to rise above freezing. A quick-moving system will move through the Northern Great Lakes today bringing some light snow to Central Lower Michigan this morning. There may be some patchy freezing drizzle as well for areas north of Muskegon and Howard City through mid-morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies should be seen today. Highs will top out in the middle to upper 30s.
Forecast
Weather History for Southwest Michigan
1929: A month after the great stock market crash, it is the temperature that crashes in Lower Michigan. Record morning cold in the single digits is followed by afternoon highs only in the 10 to 15-degree range.
1960: A strong cold front moves through dropping temperatures dramatically and setting off lake-effect snow showers. The temperature stays in the 20s during the day at Muskegon, after a high of 61 degrees the day before. The freighter Francisco Morazan runs aground off South Manitou Island in northern Lake Michigan during a heavy lake-effect snow squall. All aboard are rescued by the Coast Guard in near white-out conditions.
1998: Balmy weather prevails during the final days of November, with lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s. Record highs today include 65 degrees at Muskegon, Lansing, and Grand Rapids.
Weather History for Southeast Michigan
On November 29, 2011, heavy rain fell across much of Southeast Michigan. The rain changed to snow during the evening and early morning hours of November 30. Between 1 and 3.5 inches of precipitation fell which helped make November 2011 and Autumn 2011 the wettest on record in Detroit. This was just another round of heavy rain in 2011 which was the wettest in Detroit history and the 4th wettest in Flint history.
Also on November 29, 1998, Flint and Saginaw had a two-day period of record highs of the same temperature with the 29th and 30th both having a temperature of 64 degrees.
U.S.A and Global Events for November 29th:
November 29, 1991:
A tornado struck southeast Springfield, Missouri, causing F4 damage. Shortly after touchdown, the tornado reached F3 intensity, approximately 3 miles north of the town of Nixa. While crossing Highway 65, the tornado picked up a truck and dropped it onto a frontage road, killing one passenger and injuring ten others. The tornado intensified to F4 strength as it moved through the Woodbridge and Natural Bridge Estates subdivisions where 15 homes were destroyed. Altogether, two people were killed and 64 others were injured.
Forecast Discussion
A few light snow showers are possible through late morning, mainly near and north of M46, due to isentropic upglide and a weak shortwave moving across the northern lower peninsula. latest trends in high resolution guidance keep showers light and sporadic given low-level dry air so have capped PoPs at 40 percent. BUFKIT overviews show the DGZ becoming unsaturated mid morning wednesday leading to the end of light snow chances. Any accumulations would be a few tenths of an inch at most. Otherwise, expect dry conditions from midday Wednesday through the end of the short term as weak ridging followed by zonal flow set up across lower Michigan. Skies become partly cloudy for a time tonight before clouds increase Thursday afternoon as low level moisture increases thanks to a low moving into the Ohio Valley. Breezy conditions with gusts to around 30 mph at times are likely both Wednesday and Thursday. Southwest winds are expected today becoming northwesterly late Thursday as a cold front slides southeast across the CWA. As 850 mb temperatures warm from -3C today to +3C Thursday, expect high temperatures to warm from the mid 30s today to the mid 40s Thursday. An active long term appears to be setting up with precipitation chances in every 12 hour forecast period from Thursday night through next Tuesday. Many of the forecast periods only have small chances for precipitation, with the main precipitation event occurring between late Thursday night and Saturday. There may be some precipitation type concerns over Southern Lower Michigan during this time frame. The upper pattern essentially will feature a trough which is a pattern shift from zonal flow at the end of the short term. No major systems are forecast to move through the area at the surface through the period. As for temperatures, seasonable conditions are expected with highs around 40 on most days which is very close to normals for this time of year. As for the day to day details...the focus of the long term is really on a frontal boundary that sags into the area tomorrow and hangs up near the MI/IN line on Friday. This boundary will be a focus for precipitation as a shortwave aloft swings to the northeast from the mid Mississippi Valley. The temperature profile is near freezing in the low levels and as such precipitation type becomes a forecast challenge. Without a warm layer aloft though, this is more of a rain vs snow question. WPC guidance does not indicate chances for a swath of heavy snow on the north edge of the precipitation field and neither does our forecast. What has come out of our forecast process is a fair amount of rain with some wet snow on the northern fringe near the 96 corridor. Possibly an inch of snow is what is expect via our forecast process. WPC indicates the chance for maybe 1-2 inches. Some model data like the ECMWF both the operational run and many of the ensemble members are showing the potential for 3-6 inches in the I-94 corridor on Friday. The ECWMF is a touch colder allowing for the higher snow totals. At this point, we are siding with the slightly warmer solutions which does not put advisory levels snows into our forecast area. We will be monitoring trends from model run to model run over the next 24 hours. This time frame is certainly the item to watch in the 7 day forecast. Beyond the Friday system, there are small chances for precipitation each period. Saturday has another shearing out shortwave and weak low traversing our area. As we head into Sunday and early next week, troughing aloft takes over with shortwaves moving through the area. We have 20-40 pct chances for rain and snow almost all forecast periods with more in the way of rain Sunday and trending towards snow Monday night and Tuesday as colder air filters in with the trough.
Heavy wet snow coming Friday stay tuned….possibly of school closers to Winter os getting its act together here it comes ….Wooo! INDY
The European shows about 5” for GR
GFS shows 1.9”
3KM NAM shows 6”.
There would certainly be advisories if forecast holds just a matter of where. Still a wide range. We shall see.
What? You mean winter is not cancelled like some on here are spewing! Incredible!
The clearing line got soo close to my house this afternoon but the lake effect clouds won out it looks like.
While there are a wide range of solutions, I would give the Friday timeframe a little more attention at this stage. The Euro is painting an area of heavier snow between I-96 and I-94. It gives some areas 3 to even as high as 6” of snow in Barry Eaton and Ingham Counties. Contrast that with the GFS which is further south and doesn’t give us much at all. Heck even some solutions just are plain rain. The Euro gives me more attention since it tends (not always) to be the more reliable model. Just something to watch closely.
Bring on a snowstorm baby!!
The Friday morning time frame has become a bit more interesting for the area, with confidence increasing that a portion of the area will see some brief, yet impactful weather in the form of likely accumulating snow. The trend over the 24 hours for Friday has been that of a colder one, that will likely result in a band of some accumulating snow. Temperatures remain marginal for snow at that time, but more impressive dynamics will likely turn more of the pcpn to snow. The frontal system that drops into the area on Thursday will stall out over the area… Read more »
Looks like they are locking onto what I was saying. Guess we will see how it pans out.
We have a great stretch of below normal temps lately! Incredible and fantastic!
This morning it is cloudy and I have a temperature of 23 there is just a trace of snow on the ground. I was on the far SW side of town yesterday and there is more snow on the ground there than I have here. Also there were some moderate snow showers there as well.
Slim
The official H/L yesterday was 29/18 there was 0.02” of melted snow fall and a reported trace of snowfall. There was a trace of snow on the ground. The sun was out 49% of the time. For today the average H/L is 41/29. The record high of 65 was set in 1998 and the record low of 6 was set in 1929. The wettest was 1.13” in 1919 and the most snow fall was 4.5” in 1960. The most on the ground was 7” in 1940. Last year the H/L was 54/35 and there was 0.28” of rain fall.
Slim