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End of Met Fall

This is the end of the meteorological fall today.  We ended the month of November with below-normal rainfall with 1.99 inches and we had 8 inches of snow.  Rainfall for the fall season was above normal with 11.75 inches.

We will see partly sunny skies today with brisk winds and temperatures in the 40s.  Tonight we start a more active weather pattern with a mixed bag of rain and snow.  This may persist through the weekend and at this time most of the wet snow will fall north of I96 with mainly rain south.

Bittersweet down the road from me is open with four slopes operating.


Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a south wind of 9 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph.
A slight chance of rain before 1 am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 29. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable. The chance of precipitation is 50%.
Snow before 1 pm, then rain and snow likely. Steady temperature around 33. East-northeast wind around 10 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch is possible.
Friday Night
Rain and snow showers are likely. Cloudy, with a low of around 32. East-northeast wind around 9 mph. The chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch is possible.
A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 1 pm. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Northeast wind around 8 mph. The chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers after 1 am. Cloudy, with a low of around 32.
A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 32.
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.
Monday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 30.
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.
Tuesday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 25.
Partly sunny, with a high near 38.

Weather History for SW Michigan

1958: November ends on a frigid note with lows in the single numbers and highs only in the lower 20s. From 6 to 10 inches of lake effect, snow piles up near Lake Michigan.

1976: One of the coldest November on record ends with a blast of arctic air that drops low temperatures near zero and keeps highs only in the teens. Big Rapids falls to one degree below zero and Grand Haven measures three inches of lake-effect snow.

Weather History for SE Michgan

On November 30th, 2011, a low-pressure system tracked northeast into the Eastern Great Lakes allowing rain to change to snow, with total accumulations of 4 to 8 inches occurring over the Tri-Cities region, Shiawassee, and Livingston Counties. Elsewhere, generally, 1 to 4 inches of wet snow fell. Some of the higher snowfall accumulations that were reported included Auburn and Perry with 8 inches, Midland with 6.6 inches, Howell with 6.2 inches, and Bridgeport with 6.1 inches.

On November 30, 2008, a snowstorm hit Southeast Michigan and continued into December 1. The storm mainly affected the Flint, Saginaw, and Thumb regions. The heavy, wet snow piled to 5 to 8 inches, downed trees and power lines, and left about 25,000 customers without power. Some of the higher snowfall totals included 8.6 inches in Marlette, 7.0 inches near Chesaning, and 6.0 inches in Perry.

On November 30, 1999, cold air poured into the Great Lakes, as high pressure moved southeast from central Canada, producing several bands of lake effect snow over Lake Huron. One of the bands to move onto the eastern shore of Michigan Thumb. Measurable snow fell from Huron City, south to Marine City. Heavy snow fell from Port Sanilac to Port Huron, 7 inches accumulated during the morning.

On November 30, 1940, a snowstorm left Saginaw with 11.9 inches of snow, Flint with 7.8 inches of snow, and Detroit with 3.8 inches of snow.

U.S.A and Global Events for November 30th:

November 30, 1925:

An extremely rare late November hurricane began to affect the west coast of Florida as it strengthened during the day. The storm made landfall very early on December 1st south of Tampa Bay, weakened to a tropical storm as it crossed central Florida, and exited around St. Augustine. The storm regained Hurricane strength off Jacksonville late on the 1st. Heavy rain continued over northeast Florida on the 2nd. Gale force winds were reported from the Keys to Jacksonville and over 50 people lost their lives, mostly on ships at sea. Damage along the coast south of Jacksonville was heavy and excessive rain and wind seriously damaged citrus and truck crops.

Forecast Discussion

Few icy spots may be possible this morning as patchy fog moves
through areas mainly along and north of I-96. Road temps are
currently in the upper 20s with air temps right around freezing. An
SPS may be warranted to highlight potential hazardous driving
conditions for the morning commute due to black ice.

Zonal flow dominates the regime over the eastern CONUS today
supporting decent warm air advection with 850mb temps climbing
towards +3C to +4C. This will bring high temperatures back into the
40s today. In addition to warmer temps, winds will be breezy as a 45-
50 knot LLJ sets up overhead. Inversion heights up towards 1-2kft
will support gusts to 25-35mph mixing down to the surface this

Bigger area of focus for the forecast will be on a system that will
move through the area late tonight through Friday. In this event, a
shortwave will track northeasterly from the Southern Plains into the
Ohio Valley/southern Michigan. This system still looks likely to
produce a mix of rain and snow with the rain/snow mix arriving
near I-94 after midnight, then towards the I-96 corridor after 7am
Friday producing mainly snow. Model guidance continues to
highlight the higher swath of 1-3 inches of snow occuring within
the I-96 to M-46 corridor, but with many varying thermodynamic
parts in play it`s possible this band of snow could be much more
narrow. Possible mesoscale banding will support higher snow rates
at times Friday morning which may allow some accumulation on area
roads. Hazardous travel will be possible for the Friday morning

The front remains nearly stationary over the MI/IN/OH state line
area for Friday night with a second upper shortwave sliding through
aloft. Weak persistent isentropic upglide will continue much of
Friday night, so we expect precipitation to continue Friday night
with a rain/snow mix north of I-96 and rain off to the south. There
is potential for a wet 1-2 inch snow fall over portions of the
central and northern CWA. Location of the front and exactly what the
low level thermal profile are like will dictate location and
amounts. At this point though it looks like north of I-96 and on the
order of around an inch potentially.

Precipitation tapers off on Saturday, but does not completely end as
we move through the weekend given an upper trough and shortwaves
moving through the region. We have higher pops into Sunday as our
model blend is likely leaning a bit on the GFS which has a surface
low moving directly through the CWA. The ECMWF is further east with
the low development. Rain and snow are in the forecast over the
weekend with critical temperatures near thresholds for both ptypes.

As we head through the early to middle portion of next week,
conditions become a bit quieter as northwest flow trends towards
ridging. One final low may move through the region in the Tuesday
time frame though and we have 20-40 pct pops in the forecast for
both rain and snow.

Temperatures through the period will be near normals and also
conducive for a mixture of precipitation types (Rain/Snow).
newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Only 20 dats till the start of the WINTER! Incredible!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Bring on the snow! We have multiple snow chances over the next week! Who would have thought?


Here is the updated CPC outlook for December.
Don’t look for a lot of cold and there might not be a lot of snow either.

Andy W
Andy W

Heaven on Earth! Even snow crazed Kirkwood says he only expects about 60 total inches of snow this winter! And WOOD is ALWAYS over on their predictions! In about 20 days we start seeing more sunlight everyday, then SPRING around the corner. This is after we had a whopping 1.9 inches of snow for all of November!


I wish the clouds would stay away so we could get a glimpse of the northern lights tonight.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Seems like it has been a pretty sunny November compared to the usual constant grey. Even today is blue skies… much appreciated!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Yes it has been! I’d like to see the stats, but we’ve been working outside a lot this month and almost every day we’ve been out it’s been sunny and mild. 50 degrees again today, perfect outdoor temps, and it’s the last day of November!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

50 with lots of sun here. The high temp certainly overperformed today. What little snow we has disappeared.


CPC looking very warm. Feel bad for all the ski resorts trying to get up and running this year.


I know.. do they not look at the forecast???


I wonder how many people still ski? Could it be less than in the past?

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Bring on enough snow so I can break out my snowshoes! That would be great.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Bring on the SNOW! Who wouldn’t want snow in December! Rock n roll will never die!


thanks for that link, Mark. Very interesting. Hopes of a white Christmas will all hinge on when we get those “burps” of cold air… here’s hoping


The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 37/20 there was no rain/snow fall. The day started with a trace of snow on the ground. The average H/L for today is 41/29 the record high of 64 was set in 1998 and the record low of 6 was set in 1958. The record precipitation of 0.65” that fell as 6.8” of snowfall was in 1940. November 1940 ended with 5 days in a row of snow fall for a 5 day total of 16.7” The most snow on the ground for this date was also in 1940 with 14”. Last… Read more »

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Ryan Hall’s latest update. It’s a good watch.



Like I have been saying this winter looks to be mild with less snow fall than average.