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Temperatures Falling Today

Temperatures have begun to fall this morning after hanging around freezing most of the day yesterday and overnight.  We will see occasional snow showers today continuing through tomorrow afternoon.


Snow showers are likely, mainly after 1 pm. Patchy blowing snow after 10 am. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 26 by 9 am. West wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. The chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch is possible.
Snow showers. Low around 20. West northwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.
A 50 percent chance of snow showers before 1 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Northwest wind around 14 mph.
Tuesday Night
A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 1 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 19. South southwest wind 9 to 14 mph.
A slight chance of snow showers before 10 am, then a slight chance of rain showers between 10 am and 1 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. West wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. The chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 28.
A 30 percent chance of showers after 1 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 42.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 30.
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 25.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 29.
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.

Weather History for Southwest Michigan

1930: What a difference a week makes. After record highs in the 70s only a week before, temperatures plunge to record low levels with high temperatures only around 15 degrees during the day.

1989: Severe weather strikes Lower Michigan with downburst winds and tornadoes. A tornado did a quarter million dollars of damage as it cut a six-mile path south of Portland in Ionia County. Another tornado caused minor damage over a three-mile-long path south of Durand in Shiawassee County.

Weather History for Southeast Michigan

On November 27, 1995, a snowstorm hit the Saginaw Valley and continued into the early morning hours of November 28. The storm left Saginaw with 11.1 inches of snow. This was on top of an already cold and snowy month. Saginaw received 23.0 inches of snow! This made November 1995 the snowiest November in Saginaw history and also the 16th snowiest month of all time in Saginaw. Remarkably, in November 1995 Saginaw is the only November to appear in the top 20 monthly snowfalls for Saginaw, Flint, or Detroit.

Also on November 27, 1989, an F1 tornado hit Shiawassee County at 6:45 PM. Talk about a late tornado for the year.

U.S.A and Global Events for November 27th:

November 27, 1701:

Anders Celsius, the astronomer who invented the Celsius, often called the centigrade thermometer scale was born on this date.

November 27, 1898:

A powerful storm, known as the “Portland Gale” impacted the coastal areas of New England on November 26 – 27, 1898. The storm formed when two areas of low pressure merged off the coast of New Jersey and traveled up the east coast. This storm produced hurricane-force winds in Nantucket and sank more than 150 boats and ships. Click HERE for information on some boats that sunk from this event.

Forecast Discussion

The primary concern with the short term portion of the forecast is
accumulations through Monday night/Tuesday morning. Will cancel the
current winter weather advisory with this forecast update. Webcams
and MDOT traffic reporting suggests that current impacts to travel
are low and additional snow will be minimal. A few slick spots for
the monday morning commute cannot be ruled out, but the low
likelihood of impacts supports canceling the advisory early.

The current relative lull in snow showers continues through the
morning before renewed lake effect shower development this
afternoon. A shortwave moving through West Michigan supports an
increase in inversion heights, with significant lake induced
instability as 850 mb temperatures fall near -16C.

This will result in bands of lake effect snow showers developing
this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday morning. Westerly flow
initially transitions to northwest flow Monday evening. This gives
much of the area chances for snow showers Monday, with the best
chances in the western half of the CWA, transitioning to mainly the
traditional NW flow lake effect belts Monday night.

Snowfall across most of the area will be in the 0-2 inch range, with
the potential for 2-4 inch snowfall in our traditional NW flow lake
effect belts. Totals will vary significantly in and out of bands. In
collaboration with surrounding offices, have elected to not issue a
winter weather advisory with this package. Confidence in widespread
advisory level impacts is not high enough to support one at this
time. The next shift will re-evaluate later today to see if trends
have changed.

Regardless, slick spots on area roadways are possible later Monday
into Tuesday morning, especially if a localized band can persist
over the same area for a length of time. With temperatures in the
20s, snow will have a better chance of accumulating on roads
compared to Sunday. Gusty winds to 30 mph along with snow can also
cause localized rapid reductions in visibility in any heavier bands.

Lake effect snow showers then wind down during the day Tuesday as
surface ridging and warmer air aloft move into West Michigan.

- Overall Pattern and Temperature Trends

The upper pattern in the long term (which stretches from Tuesday
Night through next weekend) will consist of the upper trough in
place now lifting north and being replaced by zonal flow for the
most part. Given the zonal flow we will have a few chances at
precipitation in the long term, but not of them are associated with
significant systems. At 850mb`s the temperatures shift from -15C on
Tuesday to +2C and -4C. So, a moderating trend is expected from the
colder weather of the short term. Highs for much of the long term
period will be around 40F, which is essentially back to normal.

- Precipitation chances

The first chance for precipitation in the long term will be Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning as a shortwave pivots through the
northern Great Lakes. There is an uptick in depth of moisture and
lift as the shortwave rolls through. There will some lake
instability that remains in place during this time, so a lake
enhanced light snow is what is expected. We could see some light
accumulations of snow in a southwest transitioning to west flow. An
inch or two of accumulation is possible.

There is some model disparity in the operational models with our
next chance for precipitation that comes Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. The GFS is has a slightly stronger low and a further
northwest track of the system into our area. We like the flatter
track of the ECMWF which would mean less precipitation into our
area. We have chances for rain increasing to 30-60 pct Thursday
evening, but this may need to be backed off if the ECMWF ends up
being right. We will be watching trends.

Final chance for precipitation in the long term comes Saturday night
into Sunday as an upper trough pivots into the area from the west.
The ECWMF is a bit more bullish on the surface low and therefore
precipitation chances as well. With warmer air moving into the area
with the system there may be a chance for some mixed precipitation
especially Saturday night. At this point, it does not look to be a
major event.

Bottom line in the long term...a few chances at some precipitation,
but nothing heavy or rising to headline levels most likely.
Temperatures near normal.
newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

I picked up another inch of snow today and it is still snowing! My 2 day total will end up around 2 inches! What a great winter night! Fresh snow and cold! It doesn’t get better than that! Rock n roll will never die!!!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Lake Effect Snow Warnings for NY. Tug Hill was mentioned yesterday and they’re noted in the warning:

* WHAT…Heavy lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 1 to
2 feet in the most persistent lake snows, with local amounts up
to 30 inches across the Tug Hill plateau. Winds gusting as high
as 35 mph will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Another WWA for a few tenths of an inch of snow?! Maybe way down South it would be appropriate but not here. I still wonder how they measure a tenth at a time, magnifying glass? I think Mark mentioned recently to bring back the travelers advisory’s, that would make a lot more sense than a WWA for a so called “storm” that leaves us with a light dusting.


Back in the day even a “travelers advisory” would have more snow than what we had yesterday. I think most of travelers advisory’s had around 2 to 4″ or so.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

They were predicting 2-4 inches and were wrong, so their initial thinking made sense, especially for the first (or second) snow of the season. But agreed, traveler advisory for minimal impacts, advisory for moderate, warning for high

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I think their goal was to simplify everything into a WWA or warning. The problem is that an advisory could be…
2” snow and -15 windchill
0.10” of ice
3” of snow or 7” of snow
A weekend of 12-16 inches of snow with only 4-6 every 12 hours

It should be (in my opinion):
2” snow and -15 windchill (snow advisory AND wind chill advisory)
0.10” of ice (ice advisory)
3” of snow or 7” of snow (travel advisory, snow advisory)
A weekend of 12-16 inches of snow with only 4-6 every 12 hours (lake effect snow advisory)

Just a thought 😃

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

This was the first snow event of the season for many people. That, coupled with holiday travelers, is perhaps why NWS posted a WWA – just out of an abundance of caution (i.e. just a heads up). Although any true Michigander should be used to snow starting at the end of November.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Wind chills in the teens the next 2 days! Wow, just wow, WOW!!!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Mid winter cold and snow this week! Sounds great to me!


No big snow and average temps upcoming. Sounds great to me!


While the official snow fall for Grand Rapids was reported as 0.7″ there is just a trace of snow on the ground here in MBY this morning with a current temperate of 27.


The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 34/25. There was 0.11” of melted snow fall that ended up as 0.7” of snow fall. There was no sunshine and the highest wind gust was 29 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 42/29 the record high of 65 was set in 1909 and 1990. The record low of 5 was set in 1977. The wettest November 27th was 2.94” in 1990. The most snow fall of 3.8” fell in 1952. The most on the ground was 7” in 1950. Last year the H/L was 44/36 and… Read more »