Temperatures have begun to fall this morning after hanging around freezing most of the day yesterday and overnight. We will see occasional snow showers today continuing through tomorrow afternoon.
Weather History for Southwest Michigan
1930: What a difference a week makes. After record highs in the 70s only a week before, temperatures plunge to record low levels with high temperatures only around 15 degrees during the day.
1989: Severe weather strikes Lower Michigan with downburst winds and tornadoes. A tornado did a quarter million dollars of damage as it cut a six-mile path south of Portland in Ionia County. Another tornado caused minor damage over a three-mile-long path south of Durand in Shiawassee County.
Weather History for Southeast Michigan
On November 27, 1995, a snowstorm hit the Saginaw Valley and continued into the early morning hours of November 28. The storm left Saginaw with 11.1 inches of snow. This was on top of an already cold and snowy month. Saginaw received 23.0 inches of snow! This made November 1995 the snowiest November in Saginaw history and also the 16th snowiest month of all time in Saginaw. Remarkably, in November 1995 Saginaw is the only November to appear in the top 20 monthly snowfalls for Saginaw, Flint, or Detroit.
Also on November 27, 1989, an F1 tornado hit Shiawassee County at 6:45 PM. Talk about a late tornado for the year.
U.S.A and Global Events for November 27th:
November 27, 1701:
Anders Celsius, the astronomer who invented the Celsius, often called the centigrade thermometer scale was born on this date.
November 27, 1898:
A powerful storm, known as the “Portland Gale” impacted the coastal areas of New England on November 26 – 27, 1898. The storm formed when two areas of low pressure merged off the coast of New Jersey and traveled up the east coast. This storm produced hurricane-force winds in Nantucket and sank more than 150 boats and ships. Click HERE for information on some boats that sunk from this event.
The primary concern with the short term portion of the forecast is accumulations through Monday night/Tuesday morning. Will cancel the current winter weather advisory with this forecast update. Webcams and MDOT traffic reporting suggests that current impacts to travel are low and additional snow will be minimal. A few slick spots for the monday morning commute cannot be ruled out, but the low likelihood of impacts supports canceling the advisory early. The current relative lull in snow showers continues through the morning before renewed lake effect shower development this afternoon. A shortwave moving through West Michigan supports an increase in inversion heights, with significant lake induced instability as 850 mb temperatures fall near -16C. This will result in bands of lake effect snow showers developing this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday morning. Westerly flow initially transitions to northwest flow Monday evening. This gives much of the area chances for snow showers Monday, with the best chances in the western half of the CWA, transitioning to mainly the traditional NW flow lake effect belts Monday night. Snowfall across most of the area will be in the 0-2 inch range, with the potential for 2-4 inch snowfall in our traditional NW flow lake effect belts. Totals will vary significantly in and out of bands. In collaboration with surrounding offices, have elected to not issue a winter weather advisory with this package. Confidence in widespread advisory level impacts is not high enough to support one at this time. The next shift will re-evaluate later today to see if trends have changed. Regardless, slick spots on area roadways are possible later Monday into Tuesday morning, especially if a localized band can persist over the same area for a length of time. With temperatures in the 20s, snow will have a better chance of accumulating on roads compared to Sunday. Gusty winds to 30 mph along with snow can also cause localized rapid reductions in visibility in any heavier bands. Lake effect snow showers then wind down during the day Tuesday as surface ridging and warmer air aloft move into West Michigan. - Overall Pattern and Temperature Trends The upper pattern in the long term (which stretches from Tuesday Night through next weekend) will consist of the upper trough in place now lifting north and being replaced by zonal flow for the most part. Given the zonal flow we will have a few chances at precipitation in the long term, but not of them are associated with significant systems. At 850mb`s the temperatures shift from -15C on Tuesday to +2C and -4C. So, a moderating trend is expected from the colder weather of the short term. Highs for much of the long term period will be around 40F, which is essentially back to normal. - Precipitation chances The first chance for precipitation in the long term will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a shortwave pivots through the northern Great Lakes. There is an uptick in depth of moisture and lift as the shortwave rolls through. There will some lake instability that remains in place during this time, so a lake enhanced light snow is what is expected. We could see some light accumulations of snow in a southwest transitioning to west flow. An inch or two of accumulation is possible. There is some model disparity in the operational models with our next chance for precipitation that comes Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The GFS is has a slightly stronger low and a further northwest track of the system into our area. We like the flatter track of the ECMWF which would mean less precipitation into our area. We have chances for rain increasing to 30-60 pct Thursday evening, but this may need to be backed off if the ECMWF ends up being right. We will be watching trends. Final chance for precipitation in the long term comes Saturday night into Sunday as an upper trough pivots into the area from the west. The ECWMF is a bit more bullish on the surface low and therefore precipitation chances as well. With warmer air moving into the area with the system there may be a chance for some mixed precipitation especially Saturday night. At this point, it does not look to be a major event. Bottom line in the long term...a few chances at some precipitation, but nothing heavy or rising to headline levels most likely. Temperatures near normal.