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Pleasant Fall Continues

We have a cold 26° this morning at 6 am in Otsego.  We will continue with sunshine and above-normal temperatures in the 50s in the area.  Highs in the 50s to low 60s are expected with overnight lows tonight in the mid-20s to mid-30s increasing into the 30s and 40s for Tuesday and Wednesday night. Chances for rain will return Thursday night into Friday.

CPC Forecast


Sunny, with a high near 56. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 38. South wind 8 to 11 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 58. South southwest wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 39. South southwest wind 5 to 7 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. South wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Thursday Night
Showers are likely, mainly after 1 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 41. Breezy. The chance of precipitation is 70%.
A 50 percent chance of showers before 1 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 50. Breezy.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 29.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 30.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 27.
Partly sunny, with a high near 44.

SW Michigan Weather History

1908: Heavy snow falls across western Lower Michigan with a total of 16 inches at Muskegon, a record total for any November day.

SE Michigan Weather History

On November 14, 1986, the mercury fell to a record low in Flint of 12 degrees for two days in a row (the 13th and 14th).

U.S.A and Global Events for November 14th:

1921: During the afternoon hours, thunderstorms brought severe hail to portions of Alabama. The hailstones ranged from about the size of buckshot to as large as a baseball. The largest stoned weighed as much as a pound.

1969: Apollo 12 was launched into a threatening gray sky with ominous cumulus clouds. Pete Conrad’s words 43 seconds after liftoff, electrified everyone in the Control Center: “We had a whole bunch of buses drop out,” followed by “Where are we going?” and “I just lost the platform.” Lightning had stricken the spacecraft. Warning lights were illuminated, and the spacecraft guidance system lost its attitude reference.

The lightning bolt that struck Apollo 12 aloft also hit the crane and platform of the mobile launcher… Click HERE for more information.

Forecast Discussion

High pressure centered over the Ohio river valley this morning is
keeping conditions tranquil. Winds from the south will increase
during the day as the pressure gradient increases on the northwest
side of this high, though winds will not gust as much as Monday.
A layer of very dry air will be in place just above the PBL today,
so the only clouds will be cirrus which are streaming in from the
Intermountain West and Northern Plains, on the equatorward side
of the upper-level polar jet stream. Relative humidity during the
day will dip into the 40s to mid-30s percent.

Wednesday is likely to be mostly sunny with a southwest breeze as
a weak upper-level shortwave trough passes through dry. Nudged up
the high temperatures for Tue and Wed a degree above the NBM.

There is good model continuity and consensus on the timing of the
showers Thursday night into Friday associated with a trailing
cold front as low pressure tracks east across SE canada. This is
well represented in the NBM POPs which peak late Thursday night
and move east of the forecast area Friday afternoon.

There is a potential target of opportunity for some light lake
effect snow showers on Saturday night in cyclonic flow with the
GFS trending in that direction. Model soundings show deeper
moisture layer than yesterday with inversion heights around 7500
feet. The current forecast is dry and the ECMWF shows a less
favorable environment, so no changes will be made at this point to
add POPs.

A Pacific shortwave trough cuts off over the central CONUS early
next week with a sfc cyclone taking shape across the Plains. The
ECMWF, which had been taking a strong low into the western Great
Lakes has now trended towards the GFS with a weaker low and a
track further south. High chance POPs for early next week look
newest oldest
Mark (East Lansing)
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

And many people don’t believe in global warming or science! Incredible ignorance!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Since we are on the topic of snow, anyone remember November 2014? I lived in Eastern Ottawa County near the Ottawa/Kent County line at the time and we were buried in tons of snow that month. Very wild November snow. The winters of 2013-2014…2014-2015 were probably the wildest I’ve ever seen.

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Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Yes both of those winters were the most severe I remember (last winter was too warm, all the snow melted quickly after it fell). I think 2014 is ranked as the worst winter in GR history, then some of the winters in the 70s. Of course I wasnt around in the 70s, so perhaps some “older folk” would disagree from their experience

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Looks awesome!!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Another terrific weather day. Love all that blue sky. There are a good number of golfers out today. Our course stowed their carts for the season two days ago, so walkers only.

It’s three days old, but here’s an interesting vid from Ryan Hall re: the weather over the next week or two:


Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

One year ago we were about to be entering our very snowy period. We got some snow overnight on the 14th into the 15th. We had a Winter Storm Watch issued on the 16th last year. Then all the snow followed that.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

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Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

That’s a lot of snow over there. Here we got like 2-3 inches each day for three consecutive days. It was in 50s after Christmas and all the snow was gone by New Year’s Day.


Take out this snow and last winter was extremely snow-less. Winter is starting much later this year! I love it!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Lol, GR picked up a whopping 110 inches of snow! Third highest in HISTORY! Incredible snow winter last year! Wow, just wow, WOW!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

You have lost the only slice of credibility you had left with that ridiculous comment! Incredible!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

I remember it well and last winter was a very snowy winter to remember! It was wild with multiple heavy snow events! I love it!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Yes November 2022 will be very memorable. Then December 2022 we got our first Blizzard Warning in GR since 2011 also very memorable. If the 2022-2023 winter stayed colder for longer amounts and allowed the snow to stack up it no doubt would have felt more severe.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

That’s a good point. Last winter’s temps were way above average. It had to have been one of the warmest on record.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Looks like we may get back down closer to average as we head towards Thanksgiving. At some point the snow will return. Better enjoy these warm sunny days ahead because there probably won’t be a lot more of this.


The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/40 there was no rain or snow. There were 16 HDD’s the highest wind speed was 33 MPH out of the W. There was 100% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 48/33 the record high of 68 was set in 1902 the record low of 13 was set in 1969. The wettest was 1.41” in 1957 the most snow fall of 4.5” was in 1974 the most on the ground was 4” in 1959. Last year the H/L was 39/29.