We have a cold 26° this morning at 6 am in Otsego. We will continue with sunshine and above-normal temperatures in the 50s in the area. Highs in the 50s to low 60s are expected with overnight lows tonight in the mid-20s to mid-30s increasing into the 30s and 40s for Tuesday and Wednesday night. Chances for rain will return Thursday night into Friday.
CPC Forecast
Forecast
SW Michigan Weather History
1908: Heavy snow falls across western Lower Michigan with a total of 16 inches at Muskegon, a record total for any November day.
SE Michigan Weather History
On November 14, 1986, the mercury fell to a record low in Flint of 12 degrees for two days in a row (the 13th and 14th).
U.S.A and Global Events for November 14th:
1921: During the afternoon hours, thunderstorms brought severe hail to portions of Alabama. The hailstones ranged from about the size of buckshot to as large as a baseball. The largest stoned weighed as much as a pound.
1969: Apollo 12 was launched into a threatening gray sky with ominous cumulus clouds. Pete Conrad’s words 43 seconds after liftoff, electrified everyone in the Control Center: “We had a whole bunch of buses drop out,” followed by “Where are we going?” and “I just lost the platform.” Lightning had stricken the spacecraft. Warning lights were illuminated, and the spacecraft guidance system lost its attitude reference.
The lightning bolt that struck Apollo 12 aloft also hit the crane and platform of the mobile launcher… Click HERE for more information.
Forecast Discussion
High pressure centered over the Ohio river valley this morning is keeping conditions tranquil. Winds from the south will increase during the day as the pressure gradient increases on the northwest side of this high, though winds will not gust as much as Monday. A layer of very dry air will be in place just above the PBL today, so the only clouds will be cirrus which are streaming in from the Intermountain West and Northern Plains, on the equatorward side of the upper-level polar jet stream. Relative humidity during the day will dip into the 40s to mid-30s percent. Wednesday is likely to be mostly sunny with a southwest breeze as a weak upper-level shortwave trough passes through dry. Nudged up the high temperatures for Tue and Wed a degree above the NBM. There is good model continuity and consensus on the timing of the showers Thursday night into Friday associated with a trailing cold front as low pressure tracks east across SE canada. This is well represented in the NBM POPs which peak late Thursday night and move east of the forecast area Friday afternoon. There is a potential target of opportunity for some light lake effect snow showers on Saturday night in cyclonic flow with the GFS trending in that direction. Model soundings show deeper moisture layer than yesterday with inversion heights around 7500 feet. The current forecast is dry and the ECMWF shows a less favorable environment, so no changes will be made at this point to add POPs. A Pacific shortwave trough cuts off over the central CONUS early next week with a sfc cyclone taking shape across the Plains. The ECMWF, which had been taking a strong low into the western Great Lakes has now trended towards the GFS with a weaker low and a track further south. High chance POPs for early next week look good.
I’m just going to throw these out there:
https://www.woodtv.com/news/national/ap-us-news/ap-worsening-warming-is-hurting-people-in-all-regions-us-climate-assessment-shows/
https://www.wlns.com/news/goodbye-snowy-michigan-winters-new-climate-report-offers-dry-projections/
And many people don’t believe in global warming or science! Incredible ignorance!
Since we are on the topic of snow, anyone remember November 2014? I lived in Eastern Ottawa County near the Ottawa/Kent County line at the time and we were buried in tons of snow that month. Very wild November snow. The winters of 2013-2014…2014-2015 were probably the wildest I’ve ever seen.
Yes both of those winters were the most severe I remember (last winter was too warm, all the snow melted quickly after it fell). I think 2014 is ranked as the worst winter in GR history, then some of the winters in the 70s. Of course I wasnt around in the 70s, so perhaps some “older folk” would disagree from their experience
Looks awesome!!
Another terrific weather day. Love all that blue sky. There are a good number of golfers out today. Our course stowed their carts for the season two days ago, so walkers only.
It’s three days old, but here’s an interesting vid from Ryan Hall re: the weather over the next week or two:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUluqPR35rY
One year ago we were about to be entering our very snowy period. We got some snow overnight on the 14th into the 15th. We had a Winter Storm Watch issued on the 16th last year. Then all the snow followed that.
That’s a lot of snow over there. Here we got like 2-3 inches each day for three consecutive days. It was in 50s after Christmas and all the snow was gone by New Year’s Day.
Take out this snow and last winter was extremely snow-less. Winter is starting much later this year! I love it!
Lol, GR picked up a whopping 110 inches of snow! Third highest in HISTORY! Incredible snow winter last year! Wow, just wow, WOW!
You have lost the only slice of credibility you had left with that ridiculous comment! Incredible!
I remember it well and last winter was a very snowy winter to remember! It was wild with multiple heavy snow events! I love it!
Yes November 2022 will be very memorable. Then December 2022 we got our first Blizzard Warning in GR since 2011 also very memorable. If the 2022-2023 winter stayed colder for longer amounts and allowed the snow to stack up it no doubt would have felt more severe.
That’s a good point. Last winter’s temps were way above average. It had to have been one of the warmest on record.
Looks like we may get back down closer to average as we head towards Thanksgiving. At some point the snow will return. Better enjoy these warm sunny days ahead because there probably won’t be a lot more of this.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/40 there was no rain or snow. There were 16 HDD’s the highest wind speed was 33 MPH out of the W. There was 100% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 48/33 the record high of 68 was set in 1902 the record low of 13 was set in 1969. The wettest was 1.41” in 1957 the most snow fall of 4.5” was in 1974 the most on the ground was 4” in 1959. Last year the H/L was 39/29.
Slim