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Sunny Days Continue

The number of sunny days we have seen this week are welcomed in SW Michigan where we generally expect more clouds than sunshine this time of year. Enjoy the sunshine and warmer temperatures while they last. Above-normal highs in the 50s to low 60s are expected through Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s tonight. Chances for rain will return Thursday night into Friday.

Still no snow in the forecast compared to last year when we entered a snowy pattern with snow warnings and watches.


Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 58. South southwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low of around 36. South wind 3 to 7 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. South southwest wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph.
Thursday Night
Showers are likely after 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 44. Breezy, with a south wind 18 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. The chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Showers likely before 2 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Breezy, with a west-southwest wind of 13 to 20 mph becoming northwest in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. The chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 27.
Sunny, with a high near 45.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 30.
Sunny, with a high near 46.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 30.
Partly sunny, with a high near 45.
Monday Night
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 36.
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 44.

SW Michigan Weather History

1933: Michigan is in the grip of a four-day cold snap. The low of 10 degrees at Grand Rapids only rises to 18 degrees during the afternoon as lake effect snow showers swirl around and an icy northwest wind makes it feel even colder.

SE Michigan Weather History

On November 15, 2018, a low-pressure system brought a rain and snow mix to far eastern Southeast Michigan while all snow occurred elsewhere. Snowfall totals of around 4.5 inches were observed in the Tri-Cities area while a general 1 to 3 inches fell elsewhere.

On November 15, 2005, a third powerful storm hit the area in just a week and a half during November 2005, leading to yet another round of strong winds. The cold front pushed through during the evening, leading to another period of strong winds, occurring through the early morning hours of November 16. Southwest winds were sustained at 25 to 35 mph, gusting to around 50 mph, with the exception of Huron County, where wind gusts were estimated near 60 mph. Trees were downed along the lakeshore from Caseville to Grindstone City. Heavy rains also occurred across the region, and the combination of winds and rain led to property damage estimated at 7.2 million dollars. One man was killed (indirect) and another injured (indirect) in a vehicle collision caused by a tree that had fallen into the road in Northern Oakland County due to the strong gusty winds.

On November 15, 2001, a mid-month storm brought winds of 40 and 50 mph and also brought the most rain in a day for the month with nearly 2.30″ in the Detroit area.

Also on November 15, 1997, low pressure tracked across Michigan bringing light snowfall across most of Southern Lower Michigan with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches. However, cold north and northeast winds off of the relatively warmer waters of Lake Huron enhanced the snowfall amounts in eastern Sanilac and northeast St. Clair Counties where accumulations were generally 4 to 8 inches. Port Sanilac received 8 inches of snowfall, but Sheriff Departments reported localized areas of eastern Sanilac County received up to 12 inches.

U.S.A and Global Events for November 15th:

1987: On November 15 and 16, intense thunderstorms rumbled through the South-Central US producing 49 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi during a 34-hour period. Of the 49 tornadoes, four were F3, 12 were F2, 27 were F1, and 6 were F0. These severe storms caused 11 deaths and 303 injuries. This storm system also brought heavy rain to central Louisiana where five stations recorded over 10 inches in 24 hours. The highest amount was 14.22 inches at Olla on the 16th.

1996: An intense, lake effect snow event came to an end over western New York, northeastern Ohio, and northwest Pennsylvania. Chardon, Ohio was buried under 68.9 of snow over a six-day period. Edinboro, Pennsylvania checked in with 54.8 inches. 18.5 inches blanketed Cleveland, Ohio and 42 inches fell at Sherman, New York.

2007: Tropical Cyclone Sidr, a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, brings torrential rain 150-mph winds, and a four ft storm surge to the Bangladesh coast. At least 3200 people die, and millions are left homeless. Since records began in 1877, Sidr obtained the title of the second-strongest cyclone to make landfall in Bangladesh.

Forecast Discussion

-- Warm, Dry, Fairly Sunny Wednesday and Thursday --

Supply of seasonably mild air will persist for these remaining
couple of days given southwesterly flow on the back side of an
east coast surface high. Morning cirrus will depart, and other
than patches of mid-day altostratus riding through with a weak
mid-level trough, plenty of sunshine is expected. A fair amount of
sunshine is also likely for Thursday, though thicker
cirrus/cirrostratus should stream in ahead of a more potent upper-
level trough. A moderate daytime breeze is expected both days.

-- Chance of Fog Tonight --

A nuanced forecast challenge for Wednesday night, but worth
mentioning the possibility of foggy spots developing between
roughly I-96 and M-20. HREF member models show a narrow plume of
higher-dewpoint air mixing down in the afternoon, then winds go
calm with clear skies during much of the night. If any fog
develops during the night, it may mix out fairly quickly before or
around daybreak as increasing southerly low-level winds work to
erode the surface inversion.

There continues to be good model continuity and consensus on the
timing of the showers Thursday night into Friday associated with a
trailing cold front as low pressure tracks east across SE canada.
This is well represented in the NBM POPS which peak late Thursday
night and move east of the forecast area Friday afternoon.

Dry forecast for the weekend despite cyclonic flow as moisture is
shallow and the GFS has given up on its solution from 24 hours
ago showing conditions being more favorable for lake effect
showers Saturday night.

There remains a strong signal for amplification of upper
troughing over the central CONUS early next week with a sfc
cyclone taking shape across the Plains. The ECMwF has trended back
to a more amplified pattern with a strong sfc low, this time
tracking it right into Lower Michigan. Low confidence in that
solution given poor consistency and large ensemble spread.

While confidence remains low with the details of that storm, the
large scale evolution of the flow across North America would tend
to favor arctic air making it into at least the northern tier of
the CONUS and we will have to watch for the potential for lake
effect snow showers by Thanksgiving.
newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Get ready for the pattern change! Wow!!!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

It has been pouring here like crazy all day. Still another 6-8 inches of rain to come… it’s been fun to track and watch!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)



What a difference a year makes! Last year, huge snow. This year, 60’s and sunny and golf.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

GFS for many runs has been showing things turning much colder around here around and after Thanksgiving. It does output some snow as well but a ways out so we shall see. Regardless a pattern change is on the way. Enjoy the last of the warmer air this week. Wouldn’t be a bad idea to dig out the snow brush and get it in the car for when the snows do return.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

That Ryan Hall video I shared yesterday talks about a major pattern change late next week and the subsequent week.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

I’ll have to go watch it. Thanks!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

We need major cold for THE GAME on November 25th!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Rather odd seeing motorcycles and convertibles going by in mid November. Seems we’ve had as many hours of sun just this week as we usually get for the whole month.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

60 degrees before noon here. Pretty amazing. Many golfers out today. Absolutely spectacular outside. Shorts weather. 🙂

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Enjoy the sun because when winter hits we will be seeing day after day with clouds and multiple snowstorms! Bring it on! Rock n roll will never die!!


A broken clock is right twice a day

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Currently in Miami and we are supposed to get 5-8 inches of rain today, locally 10″+. Should be exciting!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

That’s crazy, especially for an area that is basically at sea level. Stay safe!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

FL is a Hell hole for weather? Multiple months with heat and humidity, heavy rain, hurricanes, and tons of bugs! Who in their right mind would choose to live in those horrendous condition! Incredible!


Good Luck to all the hunters! Be safe!
No snow to help with the tracking like last year.


The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/27 there was no rain or snow fall. There was 100% of possible sunshine. The highest wind gust was 18 MPH out of the SE. For today the average H/L is 47/33 the record high of 68 was set in 1990 and the record low of 10 was set in 1933. The wettest was 1.84” in 1989 of that there was 1.6” of snow. The most snow fall for the day was 4.1” in 1969 the most on the ground was 5” in 1974. Last year the H/L was 33/28 and there… Read more »