The number of sunny days we have seen this week are welcomed in SW Michigan where we generally expect more clouds than sunshine this time of year. Enjoy the sunshine and warmer temperatures while they last. Above-normal highs in the 50s to low 60s are expected through Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s tonight. Chances for rain will return Thursday night into Friday.
Still no snow in the forecast compared to last year when we entered a snowy pattern with snow warnings and watches.
SW Michigan Weather History
1933: Michigan is in the grip of a four-day cold snap. The low of 10 degrees at Grand Rapids only rises to 18 degrees during the afternoon as lake effect snow showers swirl around and an icy northwest wind makes it feel even colder.
SE Michigan Weather History
On November 15, 2018, a low-pressure system brought a rain and snow mix to far eastern Southeast Michigan while all snow occurred elsewhere. Snowfall totals of around 4.5 inches were observed in the Tri-Cities area while a general 1 to 3 inches fell elsewhere.
On November 15, 2005, a third powerful storm hit the area in just a week and a half during November 2005, leading to yet another round of strong winds. The cold front pushed through during the evening, leading to another period of strong winds, occurring through the early morning hours of November 16. Southwest winds were sustained at 25 to 35 mph, gusting to around 50 mph, with the exception of Huron County, where wind gusts were estimated near 60 mph. Trees were downed along the lakeshore from Caseville to Grindstone City. Heavy rains also occurred across the region, and the combination of winds and rain led to property damage estimated at 7.2 million dollars. One man was killed (indirect) and another injured (indirect) in a vehicle collision caused by a tree that had fallen into the road in Northern Oakland County due to the strong gusty winds.
On November 15, 2001, a mid-month storm brought winds of 40 and 50 mph and also brought the most rain in a day for the month with nearly 2.30″ in the Detroit area.
Also on November 15, 1997, low pressure tracked across Michigan bringing light snowfall across most of Southern Lower Michigan with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches. However, cold north and northeast winds off of the relatively warmer waters of Lake Huron enhanced the snowfall amounts in eastern Sanilac and northeast St. Clair Counties where accumulations were generally 4 to 8 inches. Port Sanilac received 8 inches of snowfall, but Sheriff Departments reported localized areas of eastern Sanilac County received up to 12 inches.
U.S.A and Global Events for November 15th:
1987: On November 15 and 16, intense thunderstorms rumbled through the South-Central US producing 49 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi during a 34-hour period. Of the 49 tornadoes, four were F3, 12 were F2, 27 were F1, and 6 were F0. These severe storms caused 11 deaths and 303 injuries. This storm system also brought heavy rain to central Louisiana where five stations recorded over 10 inches in 24 hours. The highest amount was 14.22 inches at Olla on the 16th.
1996: An intense, lake effect snow event came to an end over western New York, northeastern Ohio, and northwest Pennsylvania. Chardon, Ohio was buried under 68.9 of snow over a six-day period. Edinboro, Pennsylvania checked in with 54.8 inches. 18.5 inches blanketed Cleveland, Ohio and 42 inches fell at Sherman, New York.
2007: Tropical Cyclone Sidr, a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, brings torrential rain 150-mph winds, and a four ft storm surge to the Bangladesh coast. At least 3200 people die, and millions are left homeless. Since records began in 1877, Sidr obtained the title of the second-strongest cyclone to make landfall in Bangladesh.
-- Warm, Dry, Fairly Sunny Wednesday and Thursday -- Supply of seasonably mild air will persist for these remaining couple of days given southwesterly flow on the back side of an east coast surface high. Morning cirrus will depart, and other than patches of mid-day altostratus riding through with a weak mid-level trough, plenty of sunshine is expected. A fair amount of sunshine is also likely for Thursday, though thicker cirrus/cirrostratus should stream in ahead of a more potent upper- level trough. A moderate daytime breeze is expected both days. -- Chance of Fog Tonight -- A nuanced forecast challenge for Wednesday night, but worth mentioning the possibility of foggy spots developing between roughly I-96 and M-20. HREF member models show a narrow plume of higher-dewpoint air mixing down in the afternoon, then winds go calm with clear skies during much of the night. If any fog develops during the night, it may mix out fairly quickly before or around daybreak as increasing southerly low-level winds work to erode the surface inversion. There continues to be good model continuity and consensus on the timing of the showers Thursday night into Friday associated with a trailing cold front as low pressure tracks east across SE canada. This is well represented in the NBM POPS which peak late Thursday night and move east of the forecast area Friday afternoon. Dry forecast for the weekend despite cyclonic flow as moisture is shallow and the GFS has given up on its solution from 24 hours ago showing conditions being more favorable for lake effect showers Saturday night. There remains a strong signal for amplification of upper troughing over the central CONUS early next week with a sfc cyclone taking shape across the Plains. The ECMwF has trended back to a more amplified pattern with a strong sfc low, this time tracking it right into Lower Michigan. Low confidence in that solution given poor consistency and large ensemble spread. While confidence remains low with the details of that storm, the large scale evolution of the flow across North America would tend to favor arctic air making it into at least the northern tier of the CONUS and we will have to watch for the potential for lake effect snow showers by Thanksgiving.