The theme and title of this post seem consistent with most of the posts for this month. We had just 12% of possible sunshine in December and we’re at a dismal 11.3% sun for January. Some area forecasters are once again trying to perk us up by seeing perhaps a few peaks of the sun today however I wouldn’t get my hopes up with a west/southwest wind coming off the lake.
The map below shows the current warnings and advisories for our next synoptic event. I wouldn’t be surprised to see advisories for areas south of I96 later today even though snowfall amounts will only be in the one to two-inch range for SW Michigan.
Grand Rapids Forecast1 24 forecast grr
Lansing Forecast1 24 lan
Kalamazoo Forecast1 24 kzo
- Snow Wednesday - A low pressure system over the OH valley region by midday Wednesday will move ne to near KBUF by late Wednesday night and bring widespread snow to our area. A consensus blend of most of our latest guidance continues to indicate that our fcst area will get anywhere from around an inch or two across our northern fcst area to around four to six inches over our se fcst area. This seems reasonable given deep moisture and fairly strong omegas through the dgz and close to a half an inch of qpf over our far se fcst area. Deformation zone snow on the back side of the system Wednesday night may linger over our southeast counties but should be more focused east of our area. There are a few outlier model guidance solutions such as the 00Z 3km NAM that take the low on a more northwestward track. However the most likely outcome which continues to be supported by latest ecmwf ensembles and the 00z deterministic ecmwf suggests that the axis of heaviest snow will stay se of our fcst area. The ensembles have been quite consistent in showing this for several days now. Therefore we have decided against a winter storm watch for our far se fcst area which is also consistent with our fcst thinking all along. Winter wx advisories will soon be needed for this event roughly near to south of the I-96 corridor. Will need to continue to monitor guidance trends closely as it would not take much a shift further nw with this system to bring the axis of heaviest snow into our se fcst area. We expect the Wednesday late afternoon commute to be most impacted by this event. Thx for coord on headline/no headline decisions DTX/IWX. - Snow showers Friday and into the weekend - A clipper system will bring potential for more synoptic snow Friday followed by lake effect snow showers on the back side of the system Friday night into Saturday. Around one to four inches of snow is expected Friday through Friday night with relatively highest amounts in that range over our nw fcst area. Additional snow showers are expected this weekend with the relatively best chc for snow over our southern fcst area in closer proximity to a quasi stationary frontal boundary which will extend across the OH valley region by then.