I finally wrestled the snowplow onto my tractor and the mower deck is off. I find plowing snow to be much more entertaining than the monotony of mowing grass. With a pattern change predicted to come next week, it is still an unknown if plowable snow is in the forecast.
Clouds will be on the increase today with some rain tonight into Friday as a cold front comes through. Temperatures will be near normal through next Tuesday when rain and snow showers come into play.
Forecast
SW Michigan Weather History
1959: A vast area of arctic high pressure brings record cold to much of the continental United States. High temperatures only reach the teens across much of Lower Michigan followed by record lows in the single digits on the morning of the 17th.
SE Michigan Weather History
On November 16, 1989, a snowstorm hit Flint and Saginaw and it came to an end during the early part of November 17. Saginaw received 8.0 inches of snow while Flint recorded 7.7 inches.
On November 16, 1933, both Detroit and Saginaw had record lows on the 15th and 16th for Detroit and the 14th-16th for Saginaw. In Detroit, the temperatures were 10 degrees on the 15th and 8 degrees on the 16th. In Saginaw, temperatures were 11 degrees on the 14th, 7 degrees on the 15th, and 5 degrees on the 16th.
Also on November 16, 1932, a snowstorm that started late in the day on November 15 dumped 9.0 inches of snow on Detroit. This is the heaviest snowstorm in the month of November for Detroit.
U.S.A and Global Events for November 16th:
2006: An early morning F3 tornado killed eight people, injured 20 others, and left 100 people homeless in Riegelwood, North Carolina. This storm was the second deadliest tornado in the state in the past 50 years.
Forecast Discussion
- Breezy and mild today Southwest winds will be rather gusty today...at times over 30 mph as a cold front moves toward the region. Quite a bit of sunshine is expected this morning with increasing clouds this afternoon. H8 temps near +8c will result in sfc temps aoa 60. Grab it while you can because temperatures will tumble once the cold front blows through tonight. - Showers tonight Moisture will pool along/ahead of the cold front; pwats climb to around an inch. Short range models indicate showers developing over eastern Wisconsin during the late evening ahead of the front and then spreading east across the lake after midnight. Stability decreases ahead of the front, but not enough to result in thunder. - Cooler Friday The cold front will clear the cwa Friday morning. H8 temps fall from +4c to -4c by evening. Showers will end and clearing will occur from northwest to southeast as high pressure builds in behind it. Highs will range from the mid 40s over the northwest cwa to upper 50s in the far southeast. Showers along a trailing cold front move east by Friday night and dry weather continues through the weekend despite cyclonic flow as moisture behind the front is shallow. Upper trough goes negative tilt across the Plains early next week which promises to end a long stretch of tranquil weather in terms of storminess. There appears to finally be a trend towards a consensus on the track of the sfc low early next week. The 00Z Nov 15th ECMWF began a trend that its later runs and now the OOZ Nov 16th GFS have followed with a more amplified solution resulting in a deepening low tracking across SE Lower Michigan Tuesday night. As for sensible weather...it looks like rain, possibly heavy, can be expected Tuesday into Tuesday night before cold air rushes in on the backside of the low, changing the rain to snow by Wednesday. Latest trends have arctic air with 850 mb temps of minus 14C moving in for later Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day, when lake effect snow showers should be ongoing. Given the time range and the fact that this trend is fairly recent, there remains enough uncertainty in snow shower potential to hold off messaging potential holiday travel impact`s until forecast confidence increases.
The updated long range CPC guess is now out. As expected it points toward a warmer/dryer than average winter season. So bottom line not as cold and less snow than average. So sticking with my guess of 55 to 60″ (or less) of snow fall and a winter season of a mean of +2.5 Here is the updated CPC guess.
December
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
DJF
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
Slim
I’m going: Grand Rapids 62.3″. Lansing 43″, Kalamazoo 58″. My guess is most system snows miss us (typical of El Nino). GR/Kalamazoo get similar lake effect amounts but Kalamazoo gets a bit more rain than snow. Lansing misses out on lake effect so lower amounts
Been outside working in the yard. The latest official reading at Grand Rapids is 65 that is the 4th warmest for any November 16th at Grand Rapids. The record high is 68 in 1896 it was 67 in 1931 66 in 1954 and 1942 and this year ties 2015 at 65 (we will see what the official high will be for today) as at this time I have 68 in MBY.
Slim
NO WAY! I had not heard that. How sad. 🙁
Edit: This was in response to John Dee’s passing.
Here is a little more information
https://inlovingmemoriesnews.com/john-dee-snow-central-obituary-calumet-michigan-meteorologist-has-died/
Slim
Thanks Slim.
It has been reported that snow/snowmobiling Yooperland Met John Dee died this past Tuesday at age of 57. No mention of cause. I really enjoyed reading not only his forecast in the winter season but I also liked reading his long range winter guess. RIP John Dee.
Slim
Wow really? That’s sad to hear, he provided a lot of great info throughout the past many years, especially his snowfall forecasts.
Very sad to hear 🙁
RIP John Dee
Thanksgiving is looking *potentially* chilly. iPhone has a re-feel of 5-15 throughout the day. Maybe some lake effect?
One year ago today we were under a Winter Storm Watch. Amazing the difference in weather from last year to this year. It looks like we may get some lake effect snow going next week. We shall see.
Yesterday was a very nice mid November day with a official H/L of 59/34 there was no rain or snow fall. The sun was out 85% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 25 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 47/33 the record high of 68 was set in 1896 and the record low of 11 was set in 1933. The record rain fall of 1.34” fell in 1909 the record snow fall of 5.0” was in 2009. The most on the ground was 5.0” in 1969. Last year the H/L was 34/29… Read more »