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Last Warm Day of Fall

I finally wrestled the snowplow onto my tractor and the mower deck is off.ย  I find plowing snow to be much more entertaining than the monotony of mowing grass.ย  With a pattern change predicted to come next week, it is still an unknown if plowable snow is in the forecast.

Clouds will be on the increase today with some rain tonight into Friday as a cold front comes through.ย  Temperatures will be near normal through next Tuesday when rain and snow showers come into play.


Partly sunny, with a high near 62. South southwest wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph.
Showers, mainly after 3 am. Low around 44. Breezy, with a south-southwest wind of 18 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible.
Showers, mainly before 1 pm. Temperature falling to around 41 by 5 pm. North northwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 27. North northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Sunny, with a high near 47. Light south-southwest wind becoming west-southwest 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 33.
Sunny, with a high near 49.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 30.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46.
Monday Night
Showers are likely, mainly after 1 am. Cloudy, with a low of around 36.
Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 43.
Tuesday Night
Rain and snow showers are likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 30.
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Breezy.

SW Michigan Weather History

1959: A vast area of arctic high pressure brings record cold to much of the continental United States. High temperatures only reach the teens across much of Lower Michigan followed by record lows in the single digits on the morning of the 17th.

SE Michigan Weather History

On November 16, 1989, a snowstorm hit Flint and Saginaw and it came to an end during the early part of November 17. Saginaw received 8.0 inches of snow while Flint recorded 7.7 inches.

On November 16, 1933, both Detroit and Saginaw had record lows on the 15th and 16th for Detroit and the 14th-16th for Saginaw. In Detroit, the temperatures were 10 degrees on the 15th and 8 degrees on the 16th. In Saginaw, temperatures were 11 degrees on the 14th, 7 degrees on the 15th, and 5 degrees on the 16th.

Also on November 16, 1932, a snowstorm that started late in the day on November 15 dumped 9.0 inches of snow on Detroit. This is the heaviest snowstorm in the month of November for Detroit.

U.S.A and Global Events for November 16th:

2006: An early morning F3 tornado killed eight people, injured 20 others, and left 100 people homeless in Riegelwood, North Carolina. This storm was the second deadliest tornado in the state in the past 50 years.

Forecast Discussion

- Breezy and mild today

Southwest winds will be rather gusty today...at times over 30 mph
as a cold front moves toward the region. Quite a bit of sunshine
is expected this morning with increasing clouds this afternoon. H8
temps near +8c will result in sfc temps aoa 60. Grab it while you
can because temperatures will tumble once the cold front blows
through tonight.

- Showers tonight

Moisture will pool along/ahead of the cold front; pwats climb to
around an inch. Short range models indicate showers developing
over eastern Wisconsin during the late evening ahead of the front
and then spreading east across the lake after midnight. Stability
decreases ahead of the front, but not enough to result in thunder.

- Cooler Friday

The cold front will clear the cwa Friday morning. H8 temps fall
from +4c to -4c by evening. Showers will end and clearing will
occur from northwest to southeast as high pressure builds in
behind it. Highs will range from the mid 40s over the northwest
cwa to upper 50s in the far southeast.

Showers along a trailing cold front move east by Friday night and
dry weather continues through the weekend despite cyclonic flow
as moisture behind the front is shallow. Upper trough goes
negative tilt across the Plains early next week which promises to
end a long stretch of tranquil weather in terms of storminess.

There appears to finally be a trend towards a consensus on the
track of the sfc low early next week. The 00Z Nov 15th ECMWF began
a trend that its later runs and now the OOZ Nov 16th GFS have
followed with a more amplified solution resulting in a deepening
low tracking across SE Lower Michigan Tuesday night.

As for sensible weather...it looks like rain, possibly heavy, can
be expected Tuesday into Tuesday night before cold air rushes in
on the backside of the low, changing the rain to snow by
Wednesday. Latest trends have arctic air with 850 mb temps of
minus 14C moving in for later Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day,
when lake effect snow showers should be ongoing.

Given the time range and the fact that this trend is fairly recent,
there remains enough uncertainty in snow shower potential to hold
off messaging potential holiday travel impact`s until forecast
confidence increases.
newest oldest

The updated long range CPC guess is now out. As expected it points toward a warmer/dryer than average winter season. So bottom line not as cold and less snow than average. So sticking with my guess of 55 to 60″ (or less) of snow fall and a winter season of a mean of +2.5 Here is the updated CPC guess.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I’m going: Grand Rapids 62.3″. Lansing 43″, Kalamazoo 58″. My guess is most system snows miss us (typical of El Nino). GR/Kalamazoo get similar lake effect amounts but Kalamazoo gets a bit more rain than snow. Lansing misses out on lake effect so lower amounts


Been outside working in the yard. The latest official reading at Grand Rapids is 65 that is the 4th warmest for any November 16th at Grand Rapids. The record high is 68 in 1896 it was 67 in 1931 66 in 1954 and 1942 and this year ties 2015 at 65 (we will see what the official high will be for today) as at this time I have 68 in MBY.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

NO WAY! I had not heard that. How sad. ๐Ÿ™

Edit: This was in response to John Dee’s passing.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Thanks Slim.


It has been reported that snow/snowmobiling Yooperland Met John Dee died this past Tuesday at age of 57. No mention of cause. I really enjoyed reading not only his forecast in the winter season but I also liked reading his long range winter guess. RIP John Dee.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Wow really? That’s sad to hear, he provided a lot of great info throughout the past many years, especially his snowfall forecasts.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Very sad to hear ๐Ÿ™

RIP John Dee

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Thanksgiving is looking *potentially* chilly. iPhone has a re-feel of 5-15 throughout the day. Maybe some lake effect?

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

One year ago today we were under a Winter Storm Watch. Amazing the difference in weather from last year to this year. It looks like we may get some lake effect snow going next week. We shall see.


Yesterday was a very nice mid November day with a official H/L of 59/34 there was no rain or snow fall. The sun was out 85% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 25 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 47/33 the record high of 68 was set in 1896 and the record low of 11 was set in 1933. The record rain fall of 1.34โ€ fell in 1909 the record snow fall of 5.0โ€ was in 2009. The most on the ground was 5.0โ€ in 1969. Last year the H/L was 34/29… Read more ยป