We have some light showers passing through the area this morning due to a cold front making its way through the state. It was 56° at 5:30 am, we had 61° around 2 am which will be our high for today. Showers will end this morning and the clouds will gradually clear out. Our temperatures will fall into the low 40s by late afternoon.
Forecast
SW Michigan Weather History
1989: Grand Rapids picks up seven inches of snow, bringing accumulations during a three-day storm to over a foot.
2013: A squall line of severe thunderstorms moved through Lower Michigan during the afternoon bringing widespread wind damage. Hundreds of trees were knocked down and thousands lost power from downbursts and brief tornadoes along the line of storms.
SE Michigan Weather History
On November 17, 2013, a powerful low-pressure system strengthened and tracked northeast across the western Great Lakes. As the cold front swept through the area, winds gusted to 50 to 60 mph during the overnight hours with a peak gust of 70 mph observed at Ypsilanti. The winds produced widespread damage and caused hundreds of thousands of power outages across Southeast Michigan.
Also on November 17, 1963, Genesee County experienced golfball size hail with a severe thunderstorm passing through.
U.S.A and Global Events for November 17th:
1927: A tornado (at times to 260 yards wide) cut a seventeen-mile path through Alexandria, Virginia across the District of Columbia from the Navy Yard to Benning Rd. & 19th St. NE and Northeast to East Riverdale, Maryland. This storm injured 31 people. The tornado struck the Naval Air Station where a wind gust of 93 mph was recorded.
2013: An unusually powerful storm system spun up five dozen tornadoes from the Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley. Two EF4 twisters struck Illinois, hitting the communities of Washington and New Minden. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Lincoln, Illinois.
Forecast Discussion
- Showers this morning, then clearing Sfc analysis shows a cold front stretching from near Mackinac Island southwest to near MKE moving east. As expected, showers have developed ahead of the front and are moving across the cwa early this morning. Radar also showed a well defined band of showers along the cold front. Once the front moves through this morning, the rain will go with it. IR loop shows steady clearing behind the front over central Wisconsin and will move across the cwa this afternoon, leading to mostly sunny skies. Highs will likely be reached this morning prior to fropa with temperatures slowly falling this afternoon as h8 temps fall from +6c to -4c by late afternoon. - Clear tonight, sunny Saturday No big changes to the going forecast. As high pressure settles overhead tonight, we`ll see generally clear skies and temperatures will fall into the 20s. A sunny day is expected Saturday with highs in the upper 40s. - Dry conditions Sunday into Monday A strengthening high pressure system tracks eastward through the CWA during this time. Bufkit overviews show deep dry conditions during this period so plenty of sunshine is expected. Clouds will increase early Monday ahead of the next storm system. Monday will end up the cooler of the two days given this increase in clouds. - Possible Rain to Snow scenario Tuesday into Tuesday night Models are showing a negative tilted upper trough digging into the CWA during this time. Low level thermal profiles support rain at the onset of the event. However as the surface wave shifts east of the CWA, cold air advection on the backside of the system supports a transition to snow. Tuesday night looks like the main window for this to happen. Ensemble qpf values have gone up with this system and a fairly high potential for more than half inch exists. - Impacts possible Wednesday Growing confidence for lake effect exists on the backside of this system. Ensemble temperatures have trended colder, which given the favorable deterministic temperature profiles for lake effect supports the potential for impacts. With a real risk for daytime temperatures to stay below freezing Wednesday and a west northwest flow, slippery travel conditions are looking more likely with time. This will need to be monitored closely given that this is one of the busiest travel days of the year.
Some houses by me have their Christmas lights up. Looks nice!!
Quite a few houses around here have their lights up. We may put ours up this weekend while the weather cooperates, but we won’t turn them on until after Thanksgiving.
That is what we do too.
We put ours up the last few days. I have turned the back lights on to see if I like them.. lol
I hope everyone is enjoying today it is gorgeous outside!! I would take a whole winter of this. I haven’t been on too much my husband took a bad fall outside and broke his hip. He finally came home yesterday after being gone a month. He is doing good now.
Sorry to hear about your hubby, but I’m glad he is on the mend.
The weekend looks nice and sunny. Hope everyone gets a chance to enjoy it!
Yes, we’re off to a nice start. Lots of sun this afternoon. It’s a nice autumn day. I need to run the mower one last time this weekend to mulch up the rest of the leaves and then winterize it. I’ll get the snowblower ready. Perhaps I will use it more than just once like last winter? We shall see.
It certainly looks like there could be some snow next week. Question is how much will actually fall? That remains to be seen. Computer models were very aggressive with the system yesterday and this morning have toned it back so tough to say. Expect forecast adjustments as we get closer. Regardless it looks cold with winter like temps settling in.
Bring it! From the NWS! Another white Thanksgiving?
– Possible Rain to Snow scenario Tuesday into Tuesday night
Models are showing a negative tilted upper trough digging into the
CWA during this time. Low level thermal profiles support rain at
the onset of the event. However as the surface wave shifts east of
the CWA, cold air advection on the backside of the system supports a
transition to snow. Tuesday night looks like the main window for
this to happen. Ensemble qpf values have gone up with this system
and a fairly high potential for more than half inch exists.
Another? It was in the 50s here the past two Thanksgivings.
We had tons of snow last November and snow in the ground on Thanksgiving! You live to far from the lake to enjoy all of our snow over here!
Silver Bells in the City and the lighting of the state Christmas tree is tonight. The weather looks to be cooperative. Some years it’s cold or snowy or rainy. Tonight looks to be relatively mild and dry. Should be a good turnout. Always a fun kick off to the holiday season.
Mild? Wind chills in the mid 30’s! Too funny!
The average high for today is only 47. The temp is expected to be near that during the festivities this evening. So yeah, mild. The wind will continue to die down throughout the day, so windchill should not be a factor. This will be the “warmest” Silver Bells we’ve had in several years.
If mid 30’s is warm then bring on the 20’s! Too funny!
The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 66/33. That 66 is the 3rd warmest for any November 16th only 1896 with 68 and 1931 with 67 were warmer. There was no rain fall the sun was out 64% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 35 MPH out of the S. For today the average H/L is 47/33 the record high of 70 was set in 1953 and 1958. The record low of 9 was set in 1959. The record rain fall of 1.59” was set in 1952. The record snow fall of 7.6” was just last… Read more »
Get ready for arctic air and snow! Who said winter was cancelled this year? Incredible cold is coming! Wow!