For the past couple of years, we haven’t seen many lake effect events, we are making up for it with the snow showers pouring in off Lake Michigan yesterday, today, and tomorrow. We are closing in on nine inches so far in the Otsego/Plainwell area, we had six inches by dusk yesterday. For current school closings, you can go here.
Our high was 33° and the low was 25° yesterday with periods of moderate to heavy snowfall.
Current Warnings & Advisories
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches through tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely Saturday and Saturday night. * WHERE...Ottawa, Allegan and Van Buren counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to snow and ice covered roads and visibilities reduced to near zero at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes.
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches through tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely Saturday and Saturday night. * WHERE...Kent, Ionia, Barry, Eaton, Kalamazoo and Calhoun counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to snow and ice covered roads and visibilities reduced to near zero at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches through tonight. Additional snow likely Saturday and Saturday night. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central and west central Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning or evening commute.
Forecast Discussion
- Significant lake effect snow through Saturday night - Westerly flow les will continue today with very favorable conditions for les including high delta t/s and inversion heights up in the 7-9 kft range along with cyclonic upper flow. Several weaker shortwaves will enhance the les bands from time to time with brief boosts to inversion heights and enhanced omegas through the dgz. Potential for significant les accumulations is a little less than yesterday and tomorrow mainly due to lack of stronger upper level forcing. Nevertheless several additional inches of snow accumulations are expected particularly in our west flow snow belt regions near to west of US-131. Significant and fairly widespread lake effect snow is likely Saturday as a strong shortwave moves in from the nw with a significant boost to inversion heights to around 10-12 kft. Extreme lake induced instability is fcst as h8 temps down to -15 C will yield delta t/s in the mid 20s. Very robust low to mid level omegas are noted tomorrow in 00Z guidance consensus time height x-sections. Upstream rh in the 850-700 mb layer looks very impressive as does mid to upper level forcing and divergence. Snow ratios will also be a little more favorable with an even colder airmass in place. Several inches of additional snow accumulations are likely. Southwest winds will veer to the northwest and increase through the day and carry bands well inland. Near whiteout conditions at times are likely mainly near the Lake MI shoreline where gusts should reach around 30-35 kts. It is possible that the direction shift in winds and increasing wind speeds may limit snow accums just a bit as compared to what they would potentially be with lighter wind speeds and a unidirectional wind profile. All things considered though - overall conditions look very favorable for significant les/impacts tomorrow. - Tranquil wx return late in the weekend into early next week - The upper trof will finally move out of our area Sunday and will be followed by moderating h8 temps. As a result we expect any lingering light snow showers or flurries Sunday to taper off and a moderating trend of temps early next week. Overall guidance max temps look a bit too mild Mon/Tue given the expansive snow cover across our area. Temps will probably moderate sufficiently enough to eventually melt much but perhaps not all of our snow cover by late next week as suggested by the 00Z ECMWF snow depth prog.
Im thinking Blizzard warnings coming especially for the inland Countys today for part of the day we will see definitely going to have white out conditions and Blizzard conditions this morning….INDY
GREAT SCOTTY it has been snowing since Thursday .. indy
GR has seen 14.6 inches of snow since the event started! This could be a record breaking 3 day event! Wow, just wow! What happened to the above normal temp month! We are now well above the seasonal average for snow! Incredible!
Wow to the wow …INDY
We now have over 12 inches of snow…
Location?
Possible Blizzard tomorrow?? Definitely Blizzard conditions we are going to haft to track it im thinking tomorrow will be the worst day of the weekend with lots of wind and heavy lake effect snow as the winds go sourhwest ahead of the cold front look for another 10+ inches of snow for Grand Rapids like I said Thursday 20+”inches is not out of the question be safe everyone….INDY
Incredible!
With the winds I was wondering the same thing. We shall seee.
Slim
Not sure how this will work out but if it does here are the snow fall totals as of 5PM in and near Buffalo. Looks good
…Cattaraugus County…
Little Valley 12.0 in 0700 AM 11/18 COOP
Cattaraugus 3W 10.5 in 0700 AM 11/18 COOP
Perrysburg 10.2 in 1100 AM 11/18 CO-OP Observer
Ischua 0.4 SSE 7.3 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Franklinville 0.5 NNE 6.8 in 0721 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Allegany State Park 5.5 in 0700 AM 11/18 COOP
Olean 3.5 in 0730 AM 11/18 COOP
…Chautauqua County…
Kennedy 2.6 SE 12.1 in 0800 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Gerry 0.8 N 12.0 in 0730 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Fredonia 0.8 WNW 11.5 in 0500 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Fredonia 1.8 WNW 10.5 in 0600 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Dunkirk 10.5 in 0800 AM 11/18 Public
Dunkirk 1S 10.1 in 0700 AM 11/18 COOP
Falconer 0.3 WSW 9.0 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Jamestown 4ENE 8.9 in 0700 AM 11/18 COOP
Kennedy 0.3 NE 8.5 in 0600 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Dewittville 1.0 SSE 8.5 in 0600 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Mayville 0.2 ESE 8.5 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
3 S Fredonia 7.3 in 1015 AM 11/18 Trained Spotter
…Erie County…
Orchard Park 54.0 in 0400 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
2 SW Blasdell 48.0 in 0200 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
3 SW Elma 48.0 in 0406 PM 11/18 Cocorahs
2 WNW East Aurora 41.0 in 0302 PM 11/18 Public
2 WNW Orchard Park 40.0 in 0100 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
2 S Marilla 37.5 in 0410 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
1 NW Hamburg 37.0 in 1041 AM 11/18 Trained Spotter
3 NNW Orchard Park 36.0 in 0100 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
2 N West Seneca 36.0 in 0100 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
2 NW South Wales 36.0 in 0345 PM 11/18 NWS Employee
Hamburg 33.9 in 0844 AM 11/18 Public
Hamburg 1.9 NNW 33.9 in 0900 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
1 ESE Sloan 31.0 in 0100 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
3 NE Boston 30.3 in 0100 PM 11/18 Cocorahs
1 N Hamburg 30.0 in 0915 AM 11/18 Public
Elma 2.7 WSW 30.0 in 1045 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
2 SSE West Seneca 30.0 in 1100 AM 11/18 Amateur Radio
5 NNW Eden 30.0 in 0100 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
1 W Orchard Park 29.0 in 1100 AM 11/18 Amateur Radio
1 SSE Eden 29.0 in 0300 PM 11/18 Cocorahs
Lake View 1NE 28.1 in 0930 AM 11/18 COOP
2 SSE Lancaster 27.0 in 1156 AM 11/18 Trained Spotter
Wales 26.3 in 0700 AM 11/18 COOP
1 SSW West Seneca 26.0 in 0100 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
1 WNW Alden 25.5 in 0230 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
5 NNW Eden 25.0 in 0730 AM 11/18 Public
3 E Orchard Park 25.0 in 0800 AM 11/18 Public
2 SSW West Seneca 25.0 in 0830 AM 11/18 Public
2 N Marilla 25.0 in 0220 PM 11/18 NWS Employee
1 WSW East Aurora 24.5 in 1130 AM 11/18 Public
1 N Orchard Park 24.0 in 0725 AM 11/18 Trained Spotter
West Seneca 24.0 in 0800 AM 11/18 Public
Hamburg 2.0 N 24.0 in 0800 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
North Boston 24.0 in 1120 AM 11/18 Public
Alden 24.0 in 1130 AM 11/18 Public
Boston 2.5 NE 23.8 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
5 W Hamburg 23.0 in 0800 AM 11/18 Public
Angola 22.0 in 0800 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
1 SSW West Seneca 22.0 in 1100 AM 11/18 Amateur Radio
2 S South Wales 22.0 in 1130 AM 11/18 Trained Spotter
Colden 1.4 NNW 21.3 in 0730 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Colden 1W 21.3 in 0730 AM 11/18 COOP
Lancaster 21.0 in 1100 AM 11/18 Public
Boston 1.5 NE 20.0 in 0750 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Depew 20.0 in 1100 AM 11/18 Amateur Radio
Hamburg 0.4 WSW 19.5 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
2 SE Buffalo 19.5 in 0730 AM 11/18 Public
1 SSE Cheektowaga 19.0 in 0710 AM 11/18 Public
4 NE Angola 19.0 in 0840 AM 11/18 Public
2 SE Lancaster 19.0 in 1100 AM 11/18 Amateur Radio
2 SE Lancaster 19.0 in 0100 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
Eden 1.4 SSE 18.3 in 0800 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Eden 17.8 in 0700 AM 11/18 Public
West Falls 17.5 in 0630 AM 11/18 Public
East Aurora 0.1 ENE 17.2 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
2 WNW South Wales 17.1 in 0824 AM 11/18 NWS Employee
Glenwood 1.5 SE 17.0 in 0735 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
1 SW Orchard Park 15.5 in 0700 AM 11/18 Public
West Seneca 2.5 SE 15.1 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
3 SE West Seneca 15.0 in 0700 AM 11/18 NWS Employee
2 NE Lancaster 15.0 in 1100 AM 11/18 Amateur Radio
2 NE Lancaster 15.0 in 0100 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
Glenwood 1.0 SE 14.9 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
5 NW Springville 13.0 in 0930 AM 11/18 Trained Spotter
2 WSW Millgrove 13.0 in 0100 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
N Buffalo Airport 12.9 in 0100 PM 11/18 Official NWS Obs
East Aurora 2.7 SSE 12.8 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Cheektowaga 2.7 NE 12.6 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
N Buffalo Airport 12.5 in 0652 AM 11/18 Official NWS Obs
1 N Cheektowaga 12.0 in 1100 AM 11/18 Amateur Radio
1 N Cheektowaga 12.0 in 0100 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
Cheektowaga 11.2 in 0120 AM 11/18 NWS Employee
Williamsville 3.8 E 10.5 in 0625 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
3 S Akron 9.5 in 0100 AM 11/18 Public
1 ENE Buffalo 9.0 in 1100 AM 11/18 Amateur Radio
1 ENE Buffalo 9.0 in 0100 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
Lancaster 8.0 in 1210 AM 11/18 Public
2 N Buffalo 8.0 in 0600 AM 11/18 NWS Employee
Akron 2.4 S 8.0 in 0752 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Cheektowaga 2.4 NW 8.0 in 0800 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Snyder 0.6 SW 7.5 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
3 S East Aurora 7.3 in 1000 AM 11/18 Cocorahs
1 NNW Buffalo 7.1 in 1230 AM 11/18
Clarence Center 0.9 N 6.5 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Williamsville 3.7 ENE 5.8 in 0900 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Kenmore 0.3 ESE 5.4 in 0735 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Amherst 5.0 in 1115 AM 11/18 Public
East Amherst 1.3 WSW 4.7 in 0900 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
East Amherst 1.2 WNW 4.3 in 0800 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Buffalo 4.0 N 4.1 in 1030 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Tonawanda 1.6 E 4.0 in 0900 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Kenmore 0.8 NW 3.9 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Tonawanda 3.1 NE 3.3 in 0500 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Tonawanda 1.5 NNE 3.0 in 0853 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Amherst 5.4 NNE 2.8 in 0800 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
…Genesee County…
2 E Darien Center 19.1 in 0130 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
Batavia 3.4 WSW 12.0 in 0800 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Corfu 10.5 in 0700 AM 11/18 Trained Spotter
Pavilion 2 8.1 in 0700 AM 11/18 COOP
Stafford 1.8 NE 6.9 in 0800 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Le Roy 6.0 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Le Roy 1E 6.0 in 0800 AM 11/18 COOP
Batavia 6.0 in 0100 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
2 E Stafford 5.0 in 0700 AM 11/18 Trained Spotter
…Jefferson County…
3 SW Natural Bridge 31.5 in 0230 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
3 NW Deferiet 27.0 in 0230 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
Watertown 23.5 in 0400 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
Watertown 18.1 in 0200 PM 11/18 Cocorahs
2 SE Dexter 18.0 in 0245 PM 11/18 ASOS
Carthage 16.5 in 0148 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
3 W Calcium 16.0 in 1130 AM 11/18 Public
2 W Calcium 15.3 in 1115 AM 11/18 Public
1 SE Dexter 14.5 in 0332 PM 11/18 County Official
Evans Mills 0.5 W 8.2 in 0830 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Henderson 8.0 in 0350 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter
West Carthage 0.3 ENE 5.0 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
2 E Watertown 5.0 in 0800 AM 11/18 CO-OP Observer
2 SW Henderson Harbor 4.5 in 0700 AM 11/18 Trained Spotter
1 SSW Deferiet 4.0 in 0700 AM 11/18 Trained Spotter
…Lewis County…
5 SSW Harrisville 19.5 in 1150 AM 11/18 Cocorahs
Croghan 18.0 in 0417 PM 11/18 Public
Copenhagen 4.5 in 0645 AM 11/18 Trained Spotter
Highmarket 2W 4.4 in 0600 AM 11/18 COOP
Constableville 1.2 NW 3.5 in 0500 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Lowville 3.0 in 0700 AM 11/18 COOP
Chases Lake 1.3 in 0600 AM 11/18 COOP
…Livingston County…
Mount Morris 2W 1.0 in 0800 AM 11/18 COOP
Dansville 1.0 in 0800 AM 11/18 COOP
…Monroe County…
Hamlin 0.6 NNE 2.3 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Scottsville 0.4 NW 2.1 in 0800 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Honeoye Falls 1.7 NE 2.0 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
North Chili 2.4 SSE 1.9 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Penfield 1.9 N 1.6 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Brockport 1.3 in 0900 AM 11/18 COOP
Brockport 1.5 NE 1.0 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Pittsford 4.0 SSE 1.0 in 0800 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
…Niagara County…
Lockport 0.8 NE 4.0 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
3 N North Tonawanda 4.0 in 0830 AM 11/18 Public
Rapids 1.0 SW 3.5 in 0800 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Lockport 2.5 ESE 2.8 in 0700 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Lockport 0.9 E 2.3 in 0530 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Sanborn 4NE 2.3 in 0700 AM 11/18 COOP
North Tonawanda 2.2 in 0700 AM 11/18 COOP
Lockport 2.8 WNW 1.4 in 0820 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Newfane 1W 1.3 in 0700 AM 11/18 COOP
Niagara Falls 5.7 E 1.0 in 0637 AM 11/18 COCORAHS
Slim
Winter…
Snowfall totals south of Buffalo have now reached 4 feet in at least one location. Blasdell, New York, about 8 miles south of Buffalo, has received 48 inches of snow, including 6 inches in a single hour, between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. Heavy snow will continue falling the remainder of the day and through the night.
My niece lives in Watertown,NY and is expecting at least 3ft of snow.
That’s crazy! We have maybe 4″ on the grassy surfaces. It hasn’t snowed here since midday. The sun has come out a couple of times this afternoon. The wind has become really cold.
…WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY…
* WHAT…Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 7 to 10
inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Wind chills dropping
into single digits by Saturday night.
* WHERE…Kent, Ionia, Barry, Eaton, Kalamazoo and Calhoun
counties.
* WHEN…Moderately heavy snow this afternoon, tapering off early
tonight. Then, heavy snow quickly begins early Saturday
afternoon and continues through Saturday night.
* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult from Saturday morning
through Saturday night.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS….Blowing snow will greatly reduce
visibility and some drifting is possible.
…WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY…
* WHAT…Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 7 to 10
inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Wind chills dropping
into single digits by Saturday night.
* WHERE…Ottawa, Allegan and Van Buren counties.
* WHEN…Moderately heavy snow this afternoon, tapering off early
tonight. Then, heavy snow quickly begins early Saturday
afternoon and continues through Saturday night.
* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult from Saturday morning
through Saturday night.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS….Blowing snow will greatly reduce
visibility and some drifting is possible.
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY…
* WHAT…Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7
inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Wind chills dropping
into single digits by Saturday night.
* WHERE…Mason, Oceana and Muskegon counties.
* WHEN…Moderately heavy snow this afternoon, tapering off early
tonight. Heaviest snow quickly begins around 9 AM Saturday and
starts to diminish around midnight Saturday night.
* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult from Saturday morning
through Saturday night.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS….Blowing snow will greatly reduce
visibility and some drifting is possible.
I cleared the driveway with the snowblower and I took a update on the snow on the ground and here in my yard I have 9.2″ of snow on the ground. There was just 4″ on the driveway but it was rather wet and heavy.
Slim
I plowed with the lawn tractor again this morning, we had another 5 inches of snow by 8 am – we have had 15 inches of snow this week so far. Luckily I can bank up the snow on the opposite side of the road (I live on a dead-end road). The chains on the back wheels come in handy.
Issued at 1029 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022
We are expanding the winter storm warning both northward in area and
to 12Z Sunday in time to account for our next wave of lake effect
snow. The advisory for our easternmost counties will also be
extended in time to 12Z Sunday. This is to address the growing
threat Saturday morning that will continue through the day and
Saturday night. We are in a relative lull today and early tonight
and will try to express that in the forthcoming warning and
advisory products.
In addition to snow Saturday, we are concerned about strong winds
increasing the hazards of exposure to cold, poor visibility, and
possibly drifting. Although heaviest and most prolonged snow will
generally be adjacent to the lake, there will be a substantial
eastward extension of heavy snow during the day as a cold front
drops south through the area. The Grand Rapids metro and areas to
the south and west will see heaviest snow commencing Saturday
afternoon. Saturday night looks especially interesting from
extreme southwest Lower Michigan towards Lansing where prolonged
heavy snow is possible owing to strong lake-induced frontogenesis
coupled with strong synoptic forcing associated with a sharp
approaching upper trough.
We will try to have the updated winter weather headlines out
before 1130 AM.
That is rather interesting. We will have to see just how that plays out. Been getting on and off moderate snow fall today in the “lull”
Slim
An additional 7-10” in the warned area :O
I’m already at 7” from this event.
Lots of lightning yesterday at the east end of Lake Erie. Big numbers south of Buffalo:
Hamburg, NY 8:44am
33.9 inches so far
21.5 inches fell between 2a-8a this morning
A little over 7” at my house. Currently
Just measured where I have been measuring…we are at about 8.5 inches… And snowing pretty good right now!!
The snow is picking up here again. Looks like the heaviest banding last night was to my north and south, but we still got a couple inches last night
A new record snow fall amount for November 17th was set at Grand Rapids with 7.6” of snow fall. The official H/L yesterday was 32/26 to go with that record snow fall 0.43” of total precipitation fell. There was just 1% of sunshine. For today the average H/L is 46/32 the record high of 70 was set in 1958 and 2016 the record low of 11 was set in 1959. The record snow fall for today is 9.6” set in 2014. Here at my house I now have a temperature of 27 with light snow falling there is now 6.4” of snow on the ground here and the road here is snow covered with 3” of snow on the road. At Grand Rapids the total snow fall for November is now at 11.6″ the record for any November is 31.0″ in 2014. Of that 27.8″ fell in a 5 day event that November.
Slim
Slim
Slim the GR NWS shows 7.6 inches yesterday breaking the old record of 7.1 inches!
Good catch Rocky. I changed to to that 7.6″ and that will bring the November total up to 11.6″
Slim
Rock on Slim!
Wow, I wasn’t expecting this. 3.5″ on Thurs. and 10.5″ overnight. So, 14″ so far with more on the way.
Wow is right! We’re supposed to go to Kazoo this evening. If you have a chance later this afternoon, would you mind posting a road condition report?
I live on a county road and so far no sign of a county plow. Snowfall has slowed down and only additional inch after my A.M. post. Very little traffic compared to normal. However, I’d bet the main roads are being taken care of pretty well. Temps are reasonably warm so salt trucks will eliminate any icing.
Thanks Jim.
Yes that sounds great. I have picked up 9 inches since it started!
Woke up to approximately 3” of snow. Looks like nearly every school west of Ingham county is closed – much to the dismay of our son.
Let’s review the facts!
1. GR saw a record snowfall for the date yesterday!
2. Virtually all schools are closed today! Who knew?
3. This could be an all time record breaking event!
4. Winter is by far the best season in MI!
5. The MI Weather Center is awesome!
6. Rock n roll will never die!