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Active Weather Continues

Congratulations to Michigan for its third Big 10 Conference win in a row!

Another drab cloudy day is in store with rain and wet snow. The division between rain to the south and snow to the north is expected to be from about Holland to Grand Rapids to Alma.

Friday and Friday night’s snowfall put down about 1 to 3 (isolated up to 4) inches, from about M-46 (Muskegon – Alma) toward US-10 (Reed City – Clare). It stayed pretty much all rain south of I-96.

November Summary

November was a fairly tame month for the weather. Overall near-normal temperatures, with highs a little higher than normal and lows a little lower than normal. Mid-month was mild, and late-month was cool. Most areas saw less precipitation than normal. There was also less snow than average, except for a few locations near Lake Michigan from one lake-effect snow event. The month was also sunnier than usual!


Rain showers before 9 am, then rain, possibly mixed with snow showers between 9 am and 10 am, then rain showers after 10 am. Patchy fog before 8 am. High near 40. East wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west in the afternoon. The chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation is expected.
A chance of rain showers before midnight, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 32. West wind 6 to 10 mph. The chance of precipitation is 40%.
A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 8 am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. North northwest wind 5 to 9 mph.
Monday Night
A slight chance of rain showers between 8 pm and 2 am, then rain and snow showers are likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 30. West northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable. The chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation is expected.
Rain and snow showers are likely, mainly before 2 pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Light and variable wind becoming north at 5 to 7 mph in the morning. The chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation is expected.
Tuesday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers before 8 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.
Partly sunny, with a high near 39.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers between 8 pm and 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 30.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 36.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.
Friday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 36.
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.

Weather History for SW Michigan

1998: An extended spell of warm weather occurs in early December with highs in the 50s and 60s the first six days of the month. Record highs are set on this date with 64 degrees at Grand Rapids and 66 degrees at Lansing.

2002: Arctic air and fresh snow cover combine to drop the temperature to 18 below zero at Lansing, setting a record for early-season cold.

Weather History for SE Michigan

On December 3, 2002, Flint had a record low of -8 degrees. The next day, Flint had another record low of -4 degrees.

Also on December 3, 1982, Detroit reached 68 degrees, Flint was 67 degrees and Saginaw reached 63 degrees. All are records for the date. This was the second day in a row that all three sites had record highs. This was the start of a very warm December. December 1982 was the warmest on record for Flint, the second warmest for Saginaw, and the 6th warmest for Detroit.

U.S.A and Global Events for December 3rd:

December 3, 1838:

Cleveland Abbe, an American meteorologist, and advocate of time zones was born on this day. He was trained as an astronomer and was appointed the director of the Cincinnati Observatory in 1868. He eventually turned to meteorology and inaugurated a public weather service that served as a model for today’s National Weather Service.

Forecast Discussion

Patchy drizzle continues to limit visibilities this morning while a
mid-level shortwave approaches from the west. Rain/snow will begin
to work it`s way through West Michigan after 4am with more
widespread precip expected to fall after daybreak. General thinking
from the previous forecast continues with 1-3 inches of
accumulations expected along and north of a line from Muskegon,
Kent, Montcalm, and Isabella Counties. Recent HREF ensemble
probability-matched mean snowfall supports this slightly more
southern placement of accumulations. Temperatures will still be
marginally freezing for most areas, so snow will be of the wet and
slushy variety. Road temperatures are also currently just above
freezing south of US-10, although some accumulations are possible
during times of higher snow rates. HREF ensemble guidance
highlights the highest precipitation rates between 7am to 11am
this morning. Reduced visibilities and slick roads due to
accumulating wet snow will be possible during this time.

The bulk of the precipitation exits east this afternoon and evening,
then light low-level wrap around moisture with weak lake support
will continue some rain/snow/drizzle through early Monday. Above
freezing temperatures should help any lingering snow to melt on
contact. Moisture wanes as the main system exits further east and
mid level ridging moves in. Dry weather returns much of Monday
before our next clipper system arrives Monday night.

Guidance trends are for a farther south track of the clipper system
Monday night and Tuesday with the sfc low tracking south of MI from
ern Iowa to srn OH. Best potential for some light snow or a mix of
light rain and snow has shifted to be mainly near and south of I-96
but even there it looks like only a dusting of snow accumulation at
best. QPF progs have decreased for srn lwr MI and are only a tenth
of an inch or less.

A bit of light mixed precip could linger into Tuesday night and
early Wednesday after that system passes by due to continued
troughing aloft as well as low level northerly flow/cold advection.
The low PoPs will generally favor the lakeshore counties where H8
temps around -7C will contribute to some lake influence.

Pattern change arrives midweek as longwave trough departs to the
east and significant height rises take place. An incoming warm front
on Wednesday night could trigger a brief period of light rain and/or
snow, then southwest flow in the "warm sector" sends H8 temps to 5C
or higher on Thursday and Friday. Guidance temps continue to rise
for the end of the week, with highs in the 40s expected Thursday
through Saturday. Could even see readings in the 50s on Friday
especially south.

Rain chances begin to increase Friday night and Saturday as longwave
troughing evolves/amplifies to our west in the Plains and a frontal
zone becomes stalled nearby.
newest oldest
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Huge flakes mixed in with the rain at my house. Look like the size of half dollars.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Still 18 days till the official start of winter! It could be wild!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

My yard and driveway are completely snow covered! WOW!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Another day of nice steady rain. A lot of yards are looking pretty green again. Not Spring yet, but only a few days till the earliest sunset of the year, then we start gaining light in the evening again.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I read something interesting in an article talking about many areas in the US are experiencing much lower than average snowfall. The area that includes NYC, Philly, DC, and Richmond has not had one inch of snow in a day in nearly two years. That is remarkable.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

It looks like another day for a perfect winter hike! WOW!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

We are getting pummeled with snow again! This despite the constant warm weather hype! Incredible!


Go Blue

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

They got it done. Iowa’s defense was really good. I am very interested to see which team the committee selects for the #4 slot.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)



The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 37/33 there was 0.05” of rain and a trace of snow fall. There was 0 sunshine the highest wind was 21MPH out of the E. For today the average H/L is 40/28 the record high of 65 was set in 2012 and the record low of -6 was set in 1976. The record snowfall of 4” fell in 1996 the record on the ground was 11” in 1940. Last year the H/L was 50/22 and there was 0.13” of rain fall and a trace of snow fall.


So far this winter season there has been just 1.9” of snow fall at Grand Rapids and that is a departure of -6.5” as of this date. The next week will see more rain than snow so our snowfall deficient will continue.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

The daily average for snowfall is now about a half an inch a day, deficit adds up pretty quickly with all these days of rain. I see in the discussion above they’re now mentioning 50 degrees later this week, don’t think there will be much snow with those temps.