Snow in Maine – Hurricane in Mexico

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 33

The only area of interest in the U.S. weather wise today is in Maine where there are winter weather advisories in place for the central and northern counties where up to nine inches of snow may fall later today through Wednesday night.  When I lived there in the 70s this was no big deal.  Keep in mind that Maine doesn’t have the road system we have here in Michigan.  About 90 percent of Maine is forested, the highest percentage of any state. This includes some 12 million acres in the northern part of Maine where few people live.  In comparison Michigan is 51.2 % forested.  Maine has 46,879 lane miles of roads compared to 256,806 for Michigan and 675,580 for Texas.  A lane-mile is a measure of the total length of traveled pavement surface. Lane-miles is the centerline length (in miles) multiplied by the number of lanes.  Maine also has some large plow trucks and blowers to keep the roads clear.

Our other area of interest today is Hurricane Willa which is at cat 4 and will make land fall later today in Mexico.  For a brief time on Monday, Willa was a Category 5 hurricane but it has steadily weakened since then due to an eyewall replacement cycle and increasing wind shear. A hurricane warning is in effect from San Blas to Mazatlán, including Las Islas Marias. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Playa Perula to San Blas and from north of Mazatlán to Bahia Tempehuaya.

Locally, up to 18 inches of rain is possible in western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern Sinaloa and far southern Durango in Mexico, according to the NHC. Up to 6 inches of rain is possible farther inland across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca, southeast Chihuahua and Coahuila.

Dangerous flash flooding and landslides will occur because of the heavy rain in those areas.

After dissipating over Mexico’s mountainous terrain, the remnant upper-level energy and moisture from Willa will eventually enhance rainfall in Texas and perhaps the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday into Thursday.  Willa is just the fourth Eastern Pacific hurricane to reach Category 5 strength in the month of October dating to 1971. The others were Patricia (2015), Rick (2009) and Kenna (2002).  There have been 10 major hurricanes in 2018, including Willa, which ties 1992 as the most major hurricanes seen in the northeast Pacific in one year.


I got some raking and mulching done yesterday.  I am lucky to have property surrounded by woodland where I can put the fallen leaves.  I use my lawn tractor to mulch the leaves and it also makes a great blower.  Most of the trees down here have fallen with the exception of a persistent cottonwood I have in the side yard.  Up on M-89 there are still a lot of leaves on the trees.

We will see increasing clouds today with northwest winds blowing across the lake, chances of rain are around 2% so it will continue to remain dry.  Our next chance of rain should hold off until Saturday.

Regarding the winter forecast Dr. Judah Cohen has an interesting article in his weekly blog post.  

He states “Central Pacific El Niños are more favorable for cold winters in the Eastern US relative to Eastern Pacific El Niños. Therefore the model(s) could be incorrectly predicting a mild Eastern US winter based on El Niño.”

This is one of my concerns regarding how far the El Nino will move eastward.


5 total views, 1 views today

33
Leave a Reply

avatar
12 Comment threads
21 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
8 Comment authors
Mr. NegativeLeonard BlushMark(East Lansing)MookieINDY Recent comment authors
newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

We will have below normal temps the rest of this month and October will end up below avarage for temps! Incredible and mark it down! This could be one of the longest fall stretches with below normal temps ever!!!

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

No worries everyone…and reality aside, October will be the the warmest October ever recorded!, as we are simply melting. Coincidently, November and December headlines are already typed and saved, and state that, reality aside, “it has never been hotter than right now!” Embrace the melt…

INDY
INDY

I’m starting to think this will be our highest gas bill ever in October can’t wait to get it and compare it ..Our furnace has been running now over 2 weeks crazzy for this time of year! INDYDOG14!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Yup, you would have to go way, way, way back to 2015 to find a colder October than the one we are currently having. That 3 years must seem like an eternity:

https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/mi/grand-rapids/KGRR/date/2015-10

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Oh, and don’t forget that we are still running ABOVE average for the month yet. Funny how that works out.

INDY
INDY

Enjoy it that will done soon also since the high of 62* on October 11th 60″s seems
to be forgottenn 70’s unheard of and 80’s will be back this coming June what 90’s lol!! Pretty much a post of the pass!! INDY!!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

What are you talking about? When has it ever hit 80 going into November? Your post was about using your furnace more than ever before in October, yet you only have to go back 3 whole years to find a colder October than this one. I’m sure Slim can provide countless more October’s that were far and away colder than this one.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Here’s the records page for October. Notice that never in recorded weather history has it reached 80, let alone 90, after October 25:

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/History.aspx?location=USMI0344

Leonard Blush
Leonard Blush

Where in the world do you live? From your comments back in August about leaves changing already I’m guessing you must be somewhere in northern Canada?? October temps are still above normal down here in Michigan.

INDY
INDY

After such a warm summer the great lks are below normal now in water temps everything is crashing now in mid October! INDY!!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

That is great news! Means less lake effect snow if it would get colder.

INDY
INDY

Yup it’s cold outside! Lol! INDY!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

40s and 50s are the perfect temps. I wouldn’t call it cold till temps drop to the teens or lower.

INDY
INDY

Snow pants and winter coats for Halloween! INDYDOG14!!

Slim

Here is a long range guess that Rocky and Indy will find to their liking (note that this guess is more for the east coast)
https://www.perspectaweather.com/20182019-winter-outlook
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Bring it!

Mookie
Mookie

This is getting crazy. End of October and most of the trees are still green!

http://148.61.97.229/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=7464

Slim
Slim
Mookie
Mookie

The maps look very similar to me. Of course, that’s also a very subjective map. I’m seeing more green later this year than I have ever seen before in my archived photos. It’s crazy how super late falls are becoming the norm.

https://www.mlive.com/expo/news/erry-2018/10/41e81ef1915953/fall-colors-getting-later-in-m.html

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

What is crazy is 12 days in a row with below normal temps and no change in sight!

INDY
INDY

Snow in Main hurricane in Mexico and below normal temps far as the eye can see in GR!! Winter is crankin early this year!! INDY!!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Guess your eye can’t see very far:

comment image

INDY
INDY

See it to believe it just like this month was supposed to be above normal lol!! INDYDOG14!!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

No, they had the second half of October below normal, spot on. They also had the previous 5 months above normal while everyone else said June, July, August, and September would be below. They’ve been far more accurate than most of the other forecasters.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Won’t happen!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

If you look back on the past 5 months, or any month that’s predicted above normal for that matter, you post the exact same thing every time. Your track record virtually assures what they post will happen.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

It has been a long and rather bland stretch of color this year with the trees. It started back in late August when some trees just turned brown and dropped leaves from the dry stress. Then through September a few trees turned and dropped their leaves. Now here we are in late October, and a third of the trees are bare, a third of the trees have color, although no where near as bright and vivid as some years, and then there are still a third of the trees that have all their leaves with many of them still being… Read more »

Slim

The latest that I have read on this years forecasted El Nino is that when it develops it looks to be weak and based in NINO 3.4 and NINIO 4. This would be a central western based El Nino. Just a reminder that weak El Nino’s here in west Michigan have had a large range in wintertime outcomes. Here is a list of past weak El Nino years and the snow fall for December, January and February and the mean temperature for the 3 months of winter (December, January and February) 1952/53 snow fall 39.7” mean temp 29.5°° 1953/54 snow… Read more »

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

We have had 11 below normal temperature in a row and counting! What an INCREDIBLE stretch! We are entrenched in a cool pattern baby!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

What’s even more incredible is that the stretch is only half the length of the above normal stretch we had in August, back in the middle of our historic 5 month run.

Mark(East Lansing)
Mark(East Lansing)

Or that we’re still above average for this month.

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

The below nominal temp pattern continues and thankfully there is no change in sight! Keep on ROCKING!