European Winter Models

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 14

I look at a lot of models every day but mostly I use the Hi Res, Nam and GFS for my forecasts.  Once one begins mixing in the European forecast models things take a turn towards more head scratching in long range forecasting.  The Atmospheric and Environmental Research graphic above for December-January-February is what is being predicted by many of us who research these things for this winter (temperature-wise).

This is set up by a Greenland block and ridging in the Gulf of Alaska contributing to troughing in eastern North America and cooling temperatures. Ridging in the Gulf of Alaska often results in mild temperatures along the West Coast but cold temperatures east of the Rockies. Sea ice extent has been well below normal this fall on the North Pacific side of the Arctic and this may favor ridging north of Alaska helping to nudge any ridging in the North Pacific closer to the North American continent and therefore a colder solution east of the Rockies. It appears this will start setting up around December 9th or so and from what I can tell from shorter term models will be around through Christmas.

After Christmas the models start to differ using the European forecasts.  Some show a warming trend after a brief period of cold as the Arctic oscillation once again goes positive and put us back in a zonal pattern with our weather coming off the Pacific.  The three models below (you can click to enlarge them) are showing near to above normal temperatures for DJF.  There is a hint in the CFSv2 models showing a warm up after Christmas.  So, as forecasters its a a toss of the dice.


As for the shorter term moving into December we will see our zonal pattern continue across the U.S. through the end of next week and then the Arctic air will break loose as the flow will be from the Northwest.  Day time highs could be in the 20s with lows in the single digits to low teens.

The first graphic shows temperatures from the 9th to the 15th, the second is showing the lake effect kicking in with up to 12 inches of snow along the lake shore counties during that same period.  So, if all of this falls into place, which seems to be the case, we should see a flip in our climate making the area ski resorts, winter enthusiasts and snow plow operators jumping for joy.  My new snow blower is itching to come out and play.


High pressure will bring fair and cooler weather today then a front comes through later tonight with some light rain and snow. Rain showers will end Thursday morning with fair weather returning into the weekend.  So if you want to get the Christmas decorations up on the house this weekend will be your best chance.  We already have the yard and fence decorations up, I am going to get the house done this weekend.  If you have night time photos of your house lit up with lights email them to me and I will use them as the feature image.


 

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INDY

Winter storm brewing in around the 10th of December… On top of all the lk effect snows that falls we could be looking at record snowfall for December this year.. More Sprites please INDYDOG!!

INDY

Have to get shovel ready.. Old man Winter is a coming lk temps in the mid 40’s look out west Michigan.. dig out time !! INDYDOG!

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

A cold and snowy winter = Heaven on Earth!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I also have a new snowblower. Haven’t needed one for a couple of years. I told my wife that we’re due for some big snow, so I bought one. I hope Mother Nature doesn’t prove me wrong (again).

INDY

30+ inches of snow on the ground by next Sunday in West Michigan the lk is going to go nuts with temps only in the 20’s and lows in the single digits Winter is coming on hard core 7 days out .. get the Sprites ready .. INDYDOG!!

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

I am ready for the fun to begin. The snow maps are starting to trend upwards. Winter is looking AWESOME! Bring it!

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017112906&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384

Mookie
Mookie

Looks pretty dry til at least mid December if that comes true.

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

Clearly all signs and models are trending towards a SNOWY winter! I love it!

Mookie
Mookie

Still not seeing any major synoptic snows until at least mid December. Lake effect should kick in, however, for those situated by the lake.

Mookie
Mookie

Record high of 66 degrees in Flint yesterday! Records fell in more than 10 different states. Snow cover across the US is significantly below average for this time of year.

Slim

Looking back at last winter we had 3 periods of well below average temperatures. The first one in December started on the 7th and that is around the time this years first major cold spell is expected to start. Last year the cold (and here in parts of Michigan snowy) time started. At that time it looked like the winter could be a cold and snowy one as here in Grand Rapids in that two week period we had 14 days in a row of below average temperatures and 24.6” of snow fell in that 2 weeks. . The other… Read more »

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

I was thinking the exact same thing as I was reading the outlook above. It sounds like a nearly identical set up as last year. We get a pile of snow for a week or two, then it all melts and it’s back to mild rain and thunderstorms. I am good with that!

Slim

Climatology for today November 29th
Average h/L 30 year average 41/29 all time average (120+ years) 39.6/26.9°
Record high 65 1998. Coldest maximum 11° 1929
Record low 6° 1929. Warmest minimum 54° 1998
Most pricip. 1.13” in 1919
Most snow fall 4.5” in 1960. Most snow on the ground at 7 am 7” in 1940
Last year H/L 57/46 0.16” of rain
Slim

Slim

You know one of the problems with long range seasonal guesses is that they are just “a guess” I have been giving hints that this winter may or may not be the cold and snow that many of the long range guessers are giving.
Big temperature difference in GR metro area this morning.Looks like the official low will be 36° but here at my house I had a low of 27° right now its 36 and clear here at my house.
Slim