Cold Weather Returns

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 22


Not a whole lot to talk about in the short term snow wise.  Temperatures will return to what would be expected for January after enjoying the warmth of this past week with rain and even some lightning – we have been enjoying some sun which we usually don’t see a lot of this time of year.  I can’t help but think as we move back and forth between zonal and Arctic air next month we could be surprised by more synoptic events especially as we get closer to March.

The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) was a major player in our cold weather the second half of December into early January and it is also a major player in the warmer than normal conditions here since the 17th of January. As it moves through current phase 5 into phase 6 early this week, the MJO supports warmer than normal conditions over this area, but by next week it will be heading into phase 7 and then phase 8 which supports colder than normal conditions. Phases 8 through 3 favor an eastern CONUS trough. So since it will likely take until the 3rd week in February to get the MJO back into a warm phase (phase 4 through 6) for Southwest Michigan, expect mostly very cold temperatures for weeks 2 and 3 of February here.

It should be noted that both our Climate Prediction Centers latest day 8 through 14 forecast has Michigan between 60 and 80 percent chance of below normal temperatures (Feb 4 through 10th). Even more significant is the 51 member ECMWF 45 day ensembles show an eastern trough for weeks 2 and 3 of February, then a brief warm up in week 4 followed by even colder weather the first week of March!


Really not much in the way of hazardous weather is expected through the short term. Mostly it will just get colder Monday and Tuesday. We have two more cold fronts that come through associated with that departing Canadian clipper system. The Pacific front came through yesterday morning and lowered temperatures around 10 degrees.

The next frontal system is coming through early this morning which will lower temperatures another 10 degrees but we will still be warmer than normal today. The final front, that does bring in colder air, air cold enough to keep afternoon temperatures below freezing comes through this evening. There will be just enough moisture for a few flurries or maybe a dusting of snow locally as that comes through early tonight.

Winds turn to the north northeast behind the cold front tonight so that will keep the lake snow band off shore Monday. When it starts to come back toward the west Michigan shoreline it will have weakened to the point that only flurries or light snow showers will be possible Tuesday over western sections of Southwest Lower Michigan.

Helping the cause of not getting much snow from the cold air that moves in Monday and Tuesday is a large Canadian high with strongly anticyclonic low level winds. So even though the polar jet will be south of us during this time inversion heights will be to shallow for any meaningful snow showers during this time.

Lake effect does look like it could ramp up a bit for a period sometime between Fri and Sat. This comes as additional jet energy dives into the trough and deepens it a bit. The additional energy will bring deeper moisture with it, and will help the snow shower cause. Another boost to the snow may come eventually with a synoptic system coming in from the WSW. This looks like it would hold off until just after this long term period.


Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 40. West northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming north in the morning.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of snow showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. North northeast wind 8 to 10 mph.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. North northeast wind around 10 mph.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. North wind 6 to 9 mph.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 27. Light and variable wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Wednesday: A chance of snow showers before 1pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 1pm and 2pm, then a chance of drizzle after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Thursday: A slight chance of snow showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Friday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21.

Friday Night: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Saturday: Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23.

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Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Got the call saying school is closed, which was a headscratcher because 1-2″ was forecasted. Holy moly, we have 6″ on the ground! Some areas around Lansing have 7″ and even 8″.

Jack Edwards
Jack Edwards

SNOW GLOBE….HERE….BIG FLAKES…..PRETTY

Jack Edwards
Jack Edwards

RIGHT NOW….@ The YARDofCUES Lite SNOW.
& ” I’m OUTTA My Head on Monday MOANIN…””””””
The Mamas & the Papas – Monday Monday (Monterey 1967) – YouTube
▶ 3:49
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xib_oKzxXZE

Andy W
Andy W

Hmmm…..Interesting….from the GRR NWS. Looks like the WARMTH wants to stick around for a while! WHO KNEW?!??!

As we move into next weekend, confidence decreases since the ECMWF/Canadian show a warm advection pattern and highs possibly backup into the 30s.

Slim

On the way home. We stopped at a motel in Ripley, WV it was the cruise was nice. Will post more when I get home. The weather was nice in Florida when we left sunny and temperatures in the low 70’s We stopped at a friend of mine who lives south of st Augustine. There on the beach the temps were in the upper 60’s with the sun in and out. The trip from st Augustine to here started out cloudy and mild but then the rain set and we had rain and then fog lots of fog all the… Read more »

Andy W
Andy W

Safe travels Slim!!

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

Check this out!

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ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

>>>BREAKING NEWS>>>All signs point towards a COLD and SNOWY February! This is going to be a lot of fun! The January thaw is over a thing of the past! I absolutely love it!

INDY
INDY

First week of March now is looking colder then next week interesting! INDYDOG14!

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

You know it and there will SNOW well into March this year!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Gorgeous day. We threw on hoodies and got the bikes out. Lots of walkers, runners, and bikers today.

Andy W
Andy W

Funny, I noticed that too!! Seems that the majority of the people out there enjoy the weather we had this weekend way more than the disgusting, frigid, sloppy mess that is normally going on in January!

INDY
INDY

I have had snow on the ground for 41 days straight out at thee YARDofBRICKS this Winter not even close to that last year!! One thing for sure plenty of Winter left and when it gets cold and snowy next week 3 or 4 blogger’s will go missing from here .. lol!! Have a good Sunday INDYDOG14!

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

Here are some CPC INCREDIBLE FACTS! The current CPC temp outlook is for below normal temps for the following time frames; 6 to 10 days, 8 to 14 days, 3 to 4 weeks and the 3 month outlook for Feb, March and April! Absolutely Amazing and what a pattern change and nothing like last year!!!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Well you keep saying that, but a pattern change is not a pattern change till you have 6 months or so of weather that HAS happened, not upcoming weather that has not yet happened. As for comparisons to last year, again we can only look at what HAS happened so far, not what may or may not happen in the days ahead. So here’s what we CAN compare so far: Last Winter, December started very warm…..This Winter, December started very warm Last Winter it started snowing about December 9 and snowed for 2 or 3 weeks……This Winter it started snowing… Read more »

Andy W
Andy W

Yep, this winter is a carbon copy of last winter! Plenty of WARMTH & MELTING!! Also, below normal snowfall & ABOVE normal temps for January, who Knew?!??!

Andy W
Andy W

Hopefully everyone got out and enjoyed the nice WARM weather and ZERO snow this weekend!! It was GORGEOUS!!! And remember……

https://days.to/spring/2018

So hang in there everyone, we’re less than two months from that beautiful WARM weather!!

ROCKY (Rockford)
ROCKY (Rockford)

6 months? That is the craziest thing that I have heard in a long time! Get real Barry!

INDY
INDY

Seeing Twilight at 7pm now days getting longer.. INDYDOG14!!

Mookie
Mookie

Welcome to day 11 of the warmth! By tomorrow, January will be above average temperature wise and still well below average snowfall.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

It has been a great January weekend, especially with all the sunshine we’ve had! Friday night we had a fire in the fire pit because it was so nice out, and yesterday I pulled the grill out of storage to grill up burgers and brats. I even noticed Friday afternoon there were people out on the golf course. Haven’t seen that in January since, well, since last year in January! Enjoy another bright and mild day today!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

It has been a nice stretch, as of late. The sun is getting higher in the sky and the days are getting longer. Shoot, pitchers and catchers report for spring training in 15 days.