We are getting into the time of year when daytime highs and night time lows gradually descend. Any moisture which comes across the state can be a rain/snow mix or just snow at night. Our dilemma as we get into late November and early December this year is the rain/snow line being just south of the state with that line moving back and forth. We have already seen sleet and graupel this fall – most of the snow has been north of Cadillac.
The next couple weeks should be on the drier side with only around a third of an inch of rain forecast for that period, some snow is starting to show up in the long range models especially getting into the first week of December. I still believe any snow which accumulates will be short lived as daytime highs will be mainly in the 40’s. The first model above is snowfall through December 7, the second is the temperature guesses through the same period. The yellows are the warmer air the blue colder.
You can see by the forecast below that our temperature ranges from the mid 20s (night) to near 50° over the next seven days – so, I don’t see much snow sticking around until our daytime temperatures start consistently staying in the 30s which is well into December.
Another issue is how the forecasts can change from day to day – models have done a decent job for short term forecasting, the further out they go they become less reliable. I am like a lot of you out there who purchased a new snow blower last year and haven’t had to change the break in oil yet which in most cases are five hours or so.
A cold front is located across the Western Great Lakes this morning stretching from the U.P. of Michigan into Wisconsin. The front will push through Southwest Lower Michigan through the course of the day. Some rain showers will accompany the frontal passage, especially across Southern Lower Michigan.
Cold air will pour into the area behind the front and touch off some snow showers as early as this afternoon. Light lake effect snow showers will continue tonight towards Lake Michigan with little to no accumulation. A weakening clipper system may bring a little bit of light snow late Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning. Temperatures will tumble out of the 40s and into the 30s this afternoon after the front moves through.
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