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Winter Weather Advisory – Mixed Bag of Precipitation


We have a Winter Weather Advisory for most of the lower peninsula today for a mixed bag of precipitation.  At this point areas to the north of Grand Rapids will see most of the snow while to the south we will see a mix of snow and sleet.  Precipitation will arrive in Lower Michigan as soon as late this morning, then end late tonight.


Further south there are storms will thunderstorm warnings and watches in place.  This is a snapshot from Radarscope at 5 am this morning.


Grand Rapids Forecast

2 16 grr

Lansing Forecast

2 16 lan

Kalamazoo Forecast

2 16 kzo

Forecast Discussion

-- Winter Weather Today --

What we know:

After a fine early morning commute, winter weather conditions are
likely for most of the area from late in the morning into tonight.
Travel will be slowed and roads will be slick as temperatures fall.
The afternoon commute may be a greater challenge than usual in some
locations as briefly heavier snow rates could occur. Snow is
expected north of Holland, Grand Rapids, and Alma, while heading
south of that line, there will be more of a tendency for ice pellets
or freezing rain, turning to light snow late tonight.

Remaining forecast challenges:

Confidence in the deterministic snow amounts for a good portion of
the area remains lower than what might be desired for a 24 hour
forecast. Precip totals (QPF) are hard to pin down mainly for how
the mid-level deformation zone may have narrow banded enhancement
due to strong frontogenesis and its related ageostrophic vertical
accelerations during the afternoon/evening. This is usually not well
resolved in the models especially those with coarser grid
resolution, though will tend to lean on the HRRR and ARW which
suggest that the highest QPF may be focused in the vicinity of
Holland-GR-Alma. If this were to occur, suppression of precip for
much of the event may happen in the vicinity of Ludington. Where
heavy banding occurs, QPF may be around 0.6-0.7 inches against a
broader field of 0.3-0.4 inches. In southern Michigan, QPF amounts
are also lower confidence and will depend on what elevated
convection could make up for the lack of moisture above 700 mb in
the DGZ during the afternoon/evening.

On top of the QPF challenge are the precip-type and snow/liquid
ratio challenges. Medium confidence that some ice pellets could mix
with snow near Holland-GR-Alma, and more likely south of this line,
which would reduce accumulation totals though impacts to roads would
remain roughly the same. Early on in the event, around mid day, rain
or freezing rain in the vicinity of Jackson may occur. North of
Holland-GR-Alma, snow/liquid ratios will generally be greater with
northward extent, perhaps it would partially balance out diminishing
QPF amounts, though the possibility of an unsaturated DGZ in the
middle of the event could be reason to keep the ratios lower. Also
the presence of wind shear and turbulence in part of the column may
mechanically break apart crystals to reduce ratios.

-- Friday and onward --

Despite the cold day, ridging and dry air will limit lake effect
snow on Friday. Milder air sourced from what was a Pac-NW ridge will
moderate our temperatures over the weekend. Next week, there will
be a tendency for increasing baroclinicity from south to north
across a broad part of the CONUS. The resultant increasing
strength of quasi-zonal upper level jet streaks would set the
stage for potentially dynamic lows with wintry precip-type issues
mid to late next week. Global model ensembles tend to diverge
more with temperature solutions starting on Tuesday, though there
will be a tendency for declining temperatures early to mid next
week.

newest oldest
INDY
INDY

Currently Conditions its snowing out in my hood!! Over 4 inches on the ground….. Must be Grand River effect …..INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Current conditions = heavy snow, strong winds, low visibilities and poor driving conditions! Tons of schools closed on Friday already! Wow to the wow!

INDY
INDY

Northview Public No school!! My daughters school… Shes happy INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The snow just keeps coming and now it even looks like snow in Zeeland and Southern Kent county! The heavy snow will be here soon and last for a few hours! Get ready to rock!

INDY
INDY

Good friend of mine works in Zland he will fill me in tomorrow about the shhhhhh snow on the ground lol…INDY

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Our windows are getting pounded with ice pellets. Very loud.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

I am glad I am in all snow, not the freezing rain! Everyone in Kent County should be switching over to snow very soon! Get ready!

INDY
INDY

Mid February Snowstorm!! Crazzy In two weeks I will be heading for Florida for real Spring weather going to feel great snow wait!! INDY

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

My dad is in Daytona. He said it’s mid 70s and perfect. He’s going to the Duals at the Speedway tonight.

INDY
INDY

Ohhh beautiful Daytona 500 always makes me think Spring…. He is in for a treat ….INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

My snowblower will get a work out tomorrow morning! It looks we will get upwards of 5 to 6 inches of snow! incredible storm!

INDY
INDY

Roads are terrible my 4×4 was even sliding i suggest people stay in tonight and hunker down Im thinking lots of schools closed tomorrow 3 day weekend coming up!! Let it snow let it snow let it snow in the middle of February….INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Hey Indy isn’t funny how Zeeland always gets rain and minimal snow! Too,funny!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Isn’t it funny how everyone posting here is getting freezing rain except you?

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Wow!

INDY
INDY

Last radar loop shows all snow for Lowell Michigan now ..Temps in the 20’s turn the heat up Yeahhhh.. INDY

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Went out to get the mail and could hardly walk back up the driveway(we have a very steep one!). Still moderate to heavy rain, freezing on everything it hits. The snowblower continues to rust away in the corner.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Moderate, steady rain just changed over to sleet about ten minutes ago. Just let the pooch out and she was slip sliding away on the back deck.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I just drove to get a haircut. Very ice out there! All ice pellets currently

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

It has been snow here all afternoon and no let up! What a storm! 2 inches and counting! Wow!

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Ada has been firmly in the Freezing rain/Sleet area for the past 30 minutes. Cars, driveways, etc “coated”.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

So far at my house it’s been mostly freezing drizzle/rain. Layer of ice over everything.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

We were up to maybe an inch of snow, but the past hour it’s been all sleet and freezing rain with the temp at 28. Everything’s getting a shiny coat of ice on it.

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Thanks. I was wondering how the roads were. I think I will just stay put.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

We just came from Hudsonville, yeah the roads are a sheet of ice. Would actually be better if some snow fell on top of it for traction, but it’s now just a steady rain with temp at 27.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

We are getting plastered with snow!

*SS*
*SS*

Not much falling here… but our deck and steps are iced over and so are the cars bodies.

*SS*
*SS*

Salting our road right now… We must be getting more of the ice down here.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Let it snow, let it snow , let it snow! Not sure if I will be snowshoeing, skiing or cross county skiing tomorrow! Wow to the wow!

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

The snow is really picking up here. Roads are looking slick.

Slim

Getting moderate to heavy snow fall here at this time.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The radar is looking great! We will be getting pummeled with snow for hours on end! Just think some people on here were saying winter is over, winter is dead, winter is winding down! Nothing could be further from the truth! Winter is starting to get cranked up for a wild ride for the next 6 weeks! Wow, just wow!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

The latest GFS has GR essentially right in the bullseye for this incoming storm.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Keep the winter facts rocking and rolling! No winter is not winding down! Bring on the polar vortex!!

Slim

Well as expected my wife has now tested positive for COVID. This is the first time for both of us, we are fully vaccinated. I am on a antiviral and we will try to get her on one as well.
Slim

*SS*
*SS*

You should ask if Musinex will help as well. When our kids and I had it in the summer a couple years ago we took it. When my dad had it in the winter, they gave him musinex as well. It keeps the stuff thin. Just something to ask about. I know it is a little pricey, but if it helps it is worth it.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Hope you and your wife feel better soon slim. I also am home sick with covid.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Musinex is a good idea!

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

I hope you both feel better soon!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Good news: the time change is only 24 days away. Sunset will be 7:44pm

Bernie (Hamilton)
Bernie (Hamilton)

I think that the auto body shops have had as “odd” of a winter as we have, with the yo-yo season leaving drivers with the challenge of readjusting to modifying their driving habits after several weeks of dry/wet roads, back to the slippery messes in between… Be safe out there!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I bet the suspension shops are seeing an uptick in business. Many potholes are popping up all over the place.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Five kids are still fighting for their lives at Sparrow Hospital. One is an Okemos High School grad. I didn’t want to mention it until it was made public. Our daughter was in choir with him. He is a kind, extremely talented young man and is studying to be a teacher in music education. He will be a fantastic teacher. OHS is having a walkout this morning to support him and the other victims, and to protest gun violence. Please continue to pray for our children.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

We will pray for all of the children and the more protests against gun violence the better!

*SS*
*SS*

Mark… hug your daughter for me!!! That has to be so tough!!! Prayers for this young man & his family.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Will do, thanks. She’s in college west of Chicago and we’re going to see her this weekend. 🙂

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

I am keeping all the kids and their families in my prayers. Give your daughter a hug for me.

Slim

Sorry to hear about how close to home that this has hit.
Slim

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Mark is a legit weather conditions contributor to the page. Sorry to hear that “special needs violence” hit close to home.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

In my opinion all gun violence is “special needs”! There are millions of people in our country that have no business owning a weapon, or ever getting near a loaded weapon!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

It is great to see winter getting a big recharge! Snow today, more cold and snow next week, more cold and snow in March! Rock n Roll will never die!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Get ready GR, we will be getting hammered with snow today! Bring it!