Rain will overspread much of Lower Michigan this afternoon and evening, with steady rain tonight. Temperatures may reach 50° or better today in some areas. As the rain diminishes early Friday, it may mix with or change to a period of snow as temperatures drop. Windy and cold weather is forecast for later Friday through Saturday with occasional snow showers, especially in the lakeshore counties.
U.S. Weather History
1885: On this date through the 21st, Pointe-des-Monts, Quebec Canada, received 98 inches of snowfall.
1942: A deadly tornado outbreak occurred over the Central and Southern US on March 16-17th. The tornado outbreak killed 153 people and injured at least 1,284. The best estimate indicates this event contained 13 F3 tornadoes, 6 F4s, and one F5. The F5 tornado occurred north of Peoria, Illinois, in the towns of Alta, and Chillicothe, before crossing the Illinois River and striking the town of Lacon. A quarter of the homes in Lacon were destroyed, and debris was carried for 25 miles.
1986: A small but rare tornado touched down perilously close to Disneyland in Anaheim, California.
Grand Rapids Forecast3 16 grr
Lansing Forecast3 16 lan
Kalamazoo Forecast3 16 kzo
- Rain This Afternoon into Friday Morning No change in expectations for rain to move in later today and last through Friday morning. As previous discussions have mentioned, there is little to no support for thunderstorms (MUCAPE ~ 0 J/kg), so just rain is expected. A 60+ kt LLJ will advect plentiful low level moisture into Lower Michigan from 18z today through approximately 06z Friday. The 00z HREF guidance is indicating areas near and west of U.S. 131 are most likely to receive 0.50"-0.75" of rain while east of there, mainly 0.25"-0.50". This won`t cause river flooding but river rises are likely for especially the western half of our CWA. Also, there may be some ponding of water on roads at times later tonight. - Breezy with Falling Temperatures Friday Low level CAA will be underway Friday morning with winds shifting from southerly to WNW. The 850 mb temperatures will be plummeting throughout Friday so highs will occur very early in the morning. Most locations will drop near or below freezing after 18z Friday. However, it appears precipitation in association with the surface low will be over by that point as we awake lake effect generation. Surface wind gusts will likely be in the 30-40 mph range during the day on Friday. - Cold and Breezy with Snow Showers on Saturday Lake effect snow showers might not get going until early Saturday morning as some guidance is indicating the DGZ won`t get saturated until we get into the 06z-12z Saturday time frame. I suspect there will likely be snow showers before this by a few hours but just with small flake size. It is the period from 12z Saturday through 06z Sunday when conditions are most favorable for snow showers. GFS/NAM Bufkit soundings certainly support snow showers with inversion heights getting as high as 10k ft, and sufficient lift throughout the DGZ. However, the duration of a saturated DGZ at any given location may be only 12 hours or so. A couple other mitigating factors to more substantial snow shower activity are the boundary layer winds being fairly significant (around 35 kts) and surface wind gusts possibly close to that, along with residence time of any snow bands being cut short given 280/290 deg flow at 12z Saturday shifting toward 320 deg by 00z Sunday. Given the strength of winds in the boundary layer and the fact these snow showers will occur during the diurnal period, much of this activity may be cellular bursts of snow that get driven inland a fair distance. It will be interesting to see how the CAMs handle this as we head into today`s 12z model suite and tonight`s 00z updates. Model QPF remains in the 0.10"-0.20" range near and west of U.S. 131, yielding light snow accumulations, but still potentially impactful to driving at times given the abnormally cold temperatures and also the gusty winds. In general, this looks to be a 1"-4" event from U.S. 131 to the west, plus the addition of Calhoun County. There should still be some melting on roads but at times the snow showers may be heavy enough to accumulate on pavement. Any residual snow showers that linger into Saturday night will certainly cause snow to stick on roads. - Quiet Pattern Early Next Week, Then Active Weather Returns A fair amount of sunshine as well as warming temperatures look to dominate the first half of next week. Ensemble guidance supports high temperatures reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s by early to mid week. ECE/GEFS/CMC membership is highlighting the mid to late week period as the next chance for precipitation, likely liquid for the most part, with perhaps the risk for some thunderstorms depending on how the synoptic pattern evolves.