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Lake Effect Rain Showers

Yesterday I noticed some late-season golfers out on the Lynx courses enjoying the sunshine.  Bittersweet Ski Resort remains inactive with no snow or cold temperatures in the forecast to get them in business.

Clouds will be on the increase this morning and we have a chance of lake effect showers today mainly along the lakeshore counties.  Any showers left over tonight may mix with a bit of snow.

On another note, Barry will be opening his restaurant in Zeeland in a few weeks.


Increasing clouds, with a high near 49. Light west-southwest wind becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.
A slight chance of rain or freezing rain between midnight and 1 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 33. Northwest wind 3 to 8 mph. The chance of precipitation is 20%.
Veterans Day
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Light and variable wind.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 32. Light and variable wind.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. South wind 6 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 37.
Sunny, with a high near 54.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 31.
Sunny, with a high near 55.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 37.
Partly sunny, with a high near 57.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 45.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59.

SW Michigan Weather History for Today

1975: A powerful storm brought high winds across Lower Michigan, toppling trees and power lines. A tornado was spun up by the storm, damaging mobile homes and a barn in Allegan County. The Edmund Fitzgerald sank in Lake Superior during the storm, with a crew of 29 men. There were no survivors. The ore carrier left Superior, Wisconsin on November 9 loaded with 26,116 tons of taconite pellets. The cargo was to be delivered to Detroit, but the ship ran into winds of at least 60 mph and high waves and foundered at about 730 pm north of Whitefish Point.

1998: A November storm lashes the Great Lakes with wind gusts up to 90 mph. Over 167,000 homes were without power and cleanup efforts were extensive as many homes and businesses suffered roof and siding damage and thousands of trees were blown down. The high winds literally blew much of the water out of Saginaw Bay, with the water level dropping several feet and large sections of the Bay becoming dry land for a time. A waterspout on Lake Michigan briefly moved inland near Muskegon, but rapidly dissipated and caused no damage.

SE Michigan Weather History

On November 10, 2020, a streak of record warm conditions came to an end. Detroit and Saginaw saw daily high-temperature records broken four days in a row (Nov. 7 to Nov. 10) while Flint had three daily high-temperature records broken (Nov. 8 to Nov. 10). It was the second warmest first 10 days of November on record for Flint and Saginaw, while it was the fourth warmest for Detroit.

On November 10, 1998, a very intense storm system moved north across the western Great Lakes on the 10th. This storm occurred on the 23rd anniversary of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior and was actually very comparable to that storm. High winds occurred in two phases. Winds reached high wind criteria across southeast Michigan early in the afternoon of the 10th, associated with a cold front racing east across the state. A line of showers accompanied the front, locally enhancing wind speeds (see below). Wind speeds increased again in the evening. The highest winds during the entire event occurred within a couple of hours of midnight. Both periods of high winds caused significant damage across the area. In the afternoon, the walls of a church under construction were destroyed in Troy. A warehouse in Flint was deroofed, and a second warehouse roof was damaged. Damage was more widespread with the higher wind speeds that occurred at night. Trees, limbs, and power lines were downed across all of southeast Michigan. In Owosso, a roof under construction collapsed, and a church under construction in Ida (Monroe County) was also damaged. Near Mt. Clemens, a boat rack storing a number boats of collapsed. A 70 mph wind gust was measured at the National Weather Service office in White Lake. The extended period of strong winds caused an interesting phenomenon on Saginaw Bay. Southwest gales pushed water out of the bay and into the main body of Lake Huron. The water level on Saginaw Bay bottomed out at an amazing 50 inches below the chart datum! Most of Saginaw Bay is quite shallow, and the removal of over 5 feet of water exposed a huge portion of the bay bed; some estimate that up to half of the area of the bay briefly became dry land during the storm!

On November 10, 1975, an infamous intense fall storm centered over the Great Lakes sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior. 29 crewmen lost their lives because of this storm.

U.S.A and Global Events for November 10th:

1975: The SS Edmund Fitzgerald sinks 17 miles northwest of Whitefish Point, at the northeastern tip of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula on Lake Superior. While the sinking cause is unknown, strong winds and high waves likely played a significant role. A crew of 29 members was lost in this event. Click HERE for more information from WGN and HERE from Bill’s Blog.

2002: The second-largest November tornado outbreak on record over the eastern United States occurred during the Veterans Day weekend of November 9-11th, 2002. Seventy-six tornadoes were reported in seventeen states. Of the 76 tornadoes, almost one out of every six was a killer, resulting in 36 fatalities.

Forecast Discussion

A band of some rain has developed this morning on an axis extending
from near Muskegon, and toward the NE. This rain is the result of
the southern tail of a fairly robust short wave that is moving by to
our north. Most of the moisture this wave has to work with is up
above 6k ft agl. However, some of the pockets are a bit heavier and
are allowing the rain to reach the ground. This band of rain should
be fairly quickly to dissipate in the next 2-4 hours as the short
wave zips further NE away from the area.

We will see a break in the precipitation then for this morning and
into the early afternoon hours as a weak short wave ridge moves
through the area.After this short wave ridge moves by, another
fairly strong wave takes aim on Southern Lower for this afternoon
and evening. The short wave itself does not have a lot of moisture
associated with it. What will happen though is the lake contribution
will supply enough instability (Delta t`s mid to upper teens C) and
moisture for some lake effect showers to develop.

The majority of the showers will occur over the western half of the
area with the low level flow from the WNW and lake instability
present. These showers do not look to be widespread, or impactful.
The reason this is the case is forecast soundings indicate that
inversion levels are going to be fairly low around 5k ft or so. This
will keep the showers relatively weak. Inland areas could see a
couple of showers develop with the diurnal instability present with
cooler temps aloft overhead. They would diminish quickly inland
after the heating of the day is lost.

The lake effect showers will continue through tonight, and into the
first part of Saturday, before ending as high pressure builds in at
the surface, and 850 mb temps climb to around 0C Saturday evening.

-Dry Conditions Through Late Next Week-

Shortwave ridging builds into the area during the day on Saturday
ending any lingering lake effect showers across the area. A warm
front then moves across Michigan early Sunday. However, examining
relative humidity cross sections suggests that while saturation does
occur aloft, low level moisture is relatively lacking. This would
limit any precipitation to virga. As such, will keep the outgoing
forecast dry. However, if models trend toward increasing low-level
moisture then PoPs may need to be adjusted upward.

A robust area of high pressure and ridging aloft builds into the
area Monday into Tuesday (by 00z Tuesday 850 mb heights in the NAEFS
reach the 97.5th-99th percentile across southern Michigan). Ridging
aloft persists along with southerly return flow at the surface as
the high moves east into the middle of next week with minimal deep
layer moisture promoting dry conditions. Keeping the forecast dry
through Thursday evening as given the expected 500 mb height
anomalies in play think the deterministic ECMWF solution which is
the source of the slgt chc NBM PoPs is overdone. A vast majority of
ensemble members also support a dry forecast through this time. An
approaching system brings our next chance of any precipitation in
the Thursday Night/Friday timeframe.

-Warming Trend Expected Next Week-

The aforementioned ridging also leads to the initiation of warm air
advection across the Central Great Lakes, especially once southerly
return flow on the rear of the surface ridge initiates Tuesday. 850
mb temperatures climb into the 8-10 degrees Celsius range by late
week, which would support highs into the fifties easily. There
doesn`t appear to be any notable cold air advection to cool the
airmass through the end of the long term so warm temperatures remain
through the end of the long term period. Ensembles continue to
support this with the increase in ensemble mean temperatures in
recent runs supporting increasing confidence in this solution. This
would lead to temperatures being above normal next week (normal is
highs around 50 degrees).
newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Get ready for lows below freezing tonight! Incredible!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Currently in Miami and it’s 80 and sunny at 8:15AM. Almost feels like I’m sitting next to an oven- I’m sure Rocky would not like this 😉

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Absolutely horrendous! I would never live in a place like FL! Horrible state; traffic is horrendous, the weather is dreadful and the auto insurance rates are sky high! That is just the beginning of my list!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)


Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Yes and who would like 80’s and 90’s with dew points in the 70’s day after day after day! Horrible!


With 97% of possible sunshine the official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 52/40 there was no rain or snow fall. It was another windy day with the highest wind speed of 38 MPH. For today the average H/L is now down to 50/34 the record high of 75 was set last year. The record low of 16 was set in 1957. The most rain of 1.37” fell in 1988 and the most snow of 3.8” was in 2018 the most snow on the ground was 5” in 1921 Last year had that record high of 75 with a low… Read more »


There was 0.02” of rain fall overnight here in MBY with clear skies the current temperature is 36.