A cold Rain
This January has been very warm and it looks like the last week will determine just how it will rank in the warmest and least snowy on record. So far this month has a mean of 34.6 at Grand Rapids and just 0.6” of snow fall. The record warmest in history is 34.2 and the least snow fall is 0.8”. Yesterday the official H/L was 38/34 there was 0.01” of rain fall and no snow and no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 56 was in 1907 and the record low of -22 was in 1994. The record snow fall of 6.4” fell in 2003. There has been a cold rain falling overnight and with a east wind blowing with guest of up to 33MPH there is a chill in the air. At the current time there is light rain falling with a temperature of 36. Today will be a breezy and wet day with highs in the low 40’s expected. The dry slot will arrive later this morning before some warm around moves in later today and that could also become some snow as colder air moves in.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST THU JAN 19 2023
– ONGOING MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS MORNING
CURRENT SURFACE OBS (AS OF 2:30AM) SHOW TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT AREAS UP NEAR CLARE, OSCEOLA,
MECOSTA AND ISABELLA COUNTIES ARE BEGINNING TO DROP A LITTLE CLOSER
TO FREEZING. THE PRIMARY P-TYPE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE RAIN SOUTH
OF THE ADVISORY AREA, BUT SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A MIXTURE OF P-TYPES IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA WITH SLEET EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT THAN FREEZING RAIN.
AREAS NORTH OF US-10 MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LAKESHORE
SITES SUCH AS HOLLAND AND MUSKEGON REPORTING GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY AND THEN WILL WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THE LAKESHORE IS EXPECTED TO FACE THE BRUNT OF THE STRONGEST GUSTS,
BUT AREAS INLAND MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF EASTERLY GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
MPH.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE NEAR MID-DAY AS A DRY SLOT
NOSES INTO THE CWA. DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST, HOWEVER, WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S SOUTH OF I-96 AND INTO THE MID 30S
INTO THE ADVISORY AREA. THUS, ANY SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION FROM
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY MELT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER UPTICK IN RAIN THIS EVENING FROM I-96
SOUTHWARDS WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER STAYING TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WHERE BETTER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS EXIST.
– LINGERING SNOW INTO FRIDAY MORNING
THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -10C RANGE WHILE A MID-LEVEL
VORT MAX SLIDES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW. SOME
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY LIGHT (LESS THAN 1 INCH) BUT SOME
IMPACTS TO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
– SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY EVENING, THEN
CONDITIONS TURN DRY FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTH. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO LOOK
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH OH
AND IN. WHILE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
SOME IMPACTS FOR SOUTHWEST MI WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE.
Detailed Forecast Grand Rapids
Today
Rain before noon, then a chance of rain after 5pm. High near 42. East wind 12 to 17 mph becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Tonight
Rain before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then a chance of snow after 4am. Low around 32. West wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday
Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. West northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. West northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Saturday
Cloudy, with a high near 32. West southwest wind 8 to 13 mph.
Saturday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Sunday
A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Monday
Cloudy, with a high near 34.
Monday Night
A chance of snow showers before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 29.
Tuesday
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 34.
Tuesday Night
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 27.
Wednesday
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 32.
Detailed Forecast Muskegon
Today
Rain, possibly mixed with sleet before 11am, then a chance of rain after 5pm. High near 42. East wind 13 to 18 mph becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected.
Tonight
Rain likely before 1am, then snow likely, possibly mixed with rain between 1am and 4am, then snow likely after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. West northwest wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday
Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Saturday
Cloudy, with a high near 33. West southwest wind 8 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow showers after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 29.
Sunday
A 50 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 33.
Sunday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 28.
Monday
Cloudy, with a high near 34.
Monday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 29.
Tuesday
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 35.
Tuesday Night
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 28.
Wednesday
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33.
Detailed Forecast Lansing
Today
Rain before noon, then a chance of rain after 5pm. High near 45. East southeast wind 7 to 17 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight
Rain likely before 4am, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Light and variable wind becoming west 11 to 16 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday
A 40 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. West wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. West northwest wind 7 to 11 mph.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Sunday
A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 34.
Sunday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 27.
Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Tuesday
Cloudy, with a high near 35.
Tuesday Night
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 27.
Wednesday
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33.
Pattern change is imminent! Thank God winter will be returning!
The latest GFS pounds West MI with heavy snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. No doubt Winter Storm Watch/Warning level snows. However the Euro is further southeast and clips our SE forecast area. Something to watch
Yes and the GFS has been a little volatile lately. Hopefully the EURO moves to the North!
Nothing like a cold rain in January. Bring back the sunshine.
yes…please!!
Here is the latest on the Great Lakes ice coverage.
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/ice.html
As you can see there is less than 4% of coverage and a lot of open water with temperature up to the low 40’s
Slim
Looks great and I love all that open warmer than normal water!
As Nathan has stated the updated CPC long range guess is now out. In looking at both the CPC and the CFSv2 long range guesses. CPC January https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php And the CFSv2 next 30 days. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/ It looks like we will be between the cold to the NW and the warm to the SE. And according to the CPC there is a good chance of a lot of rain/snow and according to the CFSv2 there could be some colder than average temperatures. So the bottom line is we have a chance of a “bookend” winter this season. Remember the Great Lakes… Read more »
Who knew?
No one in their right mind would prefer a cold windy rain vs SNOW!
Well you don’t have to shovel rain, and if it’s not freezing, there’s no ice for anyone to wipe out on. Seems like a win for everyone.
Rain in January is absolutely horrendous!
Get ready for the big pattern change next week! Forget the rain! Thank God we have tons and cold snow coming! The rock n roll party is about to begin!
The ground may turn white again around Sunday with a couple inches possible.
That would be a good start and then a couple
monster snowstorms!
More rain in mid to late January! This was the “snow” NWS GR was hinting at last weekend. I’m glad it was another miss. Horrible winter sports conditions.
The new CPC outlooks are out. Looks like equal chances of above/below normal temperatures for both February and for February-April. Seems like a typical La Niña setup, with the cold in the NW and warm across the south.
We could be in the battle zone we shall see.
Slim